Eskimo Joe

For @Kmlwx et al, here is the SRM color palate that I use. SRM.pal

For those of you setting your SRM on your favorite radar program, the mean storm motion appears to be 235°, 55kt

My thoughts on today. For the record, I remain intrigued at the event and think that most of our action comes this afternoon. 1.) Convection this morning has deposited between 0.75" and 2" of rain in the area. A report from the Roseland area of Nelson County, VA shows some mudslide along Rt. 6 and nearly 6" of rain. This convection was mostly elevated and I suspect the 12z RAOB from IAD will reveal a bit of a temperature inversion which is why the winds are relatively quite. Once the sun gets up things should mix out a bit and gustier winds will begin to occur. 2.) The area of interest for everyone is this afternoon's storms currently over Kentucky. IR satellite shows an area of distinct clearing ahead of this and water vapor reveals a legit dry slot which should allow at least some sunshine to occur later this morning. Just how much and how long will determine how effectively we can get some surface based instability. It's interesting to see a potential little mesolow around 994 mb being analyzed by the SPC meso analysis page near the OH/KY/WV border. This might aid in development of the afternoon activity. 3.) With the morning rain, the ground is relatively saturated. It will not take much for trees to come down from this afternoon's activity or even from the synoptic scale winds.

I could see the ENH get pushed to Mason-Dixon for wind. And have the 10% TOR go from a JYO to DCA to SBY line.

Likely Step 2 or 3 tomorrow.

Just checked the HRR/RAP/NAM/NAM-nest. They all have a QLCS-ish thing running through the DC/Baltimore area between 17z and 20z tomorrow. They all have the leading edge of the WAA precip hitting BWI around 00z and here we are at 00:46z with light rain at my house in Reisterstown so they don't appear to be terribly off when it comes to timing.

FWIW, the 23z HRRR, gets a QLCS going up into Allentown, PA and has everyone from Mason-Dixon south in an environmental conductive for tornadoes from 09z to 17z tomorrow. I don't think it's going to happen the way the HRRR is saying, but it's still somewhat encouraging to see the meso models not backing down.

^Supercell # of 12...lol I wish that'd verify but we'll probably be lucky to get half of that.

We're going to star the day cloudy and misty. There's no escaping that. What really helps us is that we got a healthy low and mid level jet to help us get at least some clearing. It's not like we're waiting for the warm front to struggle through the area.

So far, things appear to be on time, if anything the system is a tad north of everything and the activity is remarkable discrete down south. Not really congealing into a QLCS.

FYI, this was posted in the SE forum. Impacts potentially the timing, etc. for tomorrow:

I mean that even with a shift north or south it's got the highest chance of being a legit event.

Whether we get linear or discrete tomorrow, it's going to produce up through the PA Turnpike. The real "safe" spot for action is from DC to SBY south.

RAP is usually very stingy IIRC. I still think the major tornado risk is along and south of I-66 to DC to US 50 to SBY, but man it's not going to take that much for this to be a very memorable event in these parts even by my standards.

Let me remote into my work PC and I'll send you the SRM that I use. EDIT: Our VPN is down for maintenance right now so I'll just share the SRM file tomorrow morning in this thread when I get in work.

Wow, just wow.

3k NAM is just silly...too bad there's a 99% chance it's wrong.

IMO, the biggest way we bust tomorrow is if the carolinas light up and steal everything. It's happened before and it might happen again this time, but we won't know until late tomorrow morning.

Couple of thoughts as we begin to close in on this event: 1.) I'm looking at the evolution of this event today across the south for timing, location of the warm front and low. If we see things are staying further south or rushing along quicker than we could expect a more muted event here tomorrow. 2.) For tomorrow, the satellite and surface obs will be key. If we somehow wind up socked in with east or northeast winds and 55 degrees at 10:00 or 11:00 am then we're probably going to bust. 3.) I would argue the ceiling on this event is pretty high, at least for this area. When even the GFS and Euro are pushing close to 1,200 SBCAPE up towards BWI then there's definitely some strong stuff at work and this isn't a case of the NAM et al being silly.

So uh, on the SWODY2 the 5% tor is into PA and the 10% [hatched] tor is just south of DC to SBY.

00z runs are the go/no go run for me. Big question for potential bust on the low end in these parts is whether the lack of aircraft sampling leads to any NWP errors.

SWODY2 has been updated. IMO, this is fine.

^the old Brunswick to Parrs Ridge tornado alley