Eskimo Joe

RAP is usually very stingy IIRC. I still think the major tornado risk is along and south of I-66 to DC to US 50 to SBY, but man it's not going to take that much for this to be a very memorable event in these parts even by my standards.

Let me remote into my work PC and I'll send you the SRM that I use. EDIT: Our VPN is down for maintenance right now so I'll just share the SRM file tomorrow morning in this thread when I get in work.

Save this one for the archives folks...wow!

Wow, just wow.

3k NAM is just silly...too bad there's a 99% chance it's wrong.

People call bust too early almost every time with Dixie Alley events. Everything is going as scheduled, perhaps delayed an hour or two by the slightly stronger cap.

Up to 84° in Montgomery, AL. Impressive.

I don't see it being a PDS.

IMO, the biggest way we bust tomorrow is if the carolinas light up and steal everything. It's happened before and it might happen again this time, but we won't know until late tomorrow morning.

Watch coordination for Alabama ongoing. Should see it hit within the next hour.

SPC upping the wind threat for a good chunk of AL with the pm update of the SWODY1.

Believe this now has a visually confirmed tornado with it:

95% of a red box for Alabama shortly...looks like it might even be a PDS given the wording in the meso.

Couple of thoughts as we begin to close in on this event: 1.) I'm looking at the evolution of this event today across the south for timing, location of the warm front and low. If we see things are staying further south or rushing along quicker than we could expect a more muted event here tomorrow. 2.) For tomorrow, the satellite and surface obs will be key. If we somehow wind up socked in with east or northeast winds and 55 degrees at 10:00 or 11:00 am then we're probably going to bust. 3.) I would argue the ceiling on this event is pretty high, at least for this area. When even the GFS and Euro are pushing close to 1,200 SBCAPE up towards BWI then there's definitely some strong stuff at work and this isn't a case of the NAM et al being silly.

So uh, on the SWODY2 the 5% tor is into PA and the 10% [hatched] tor is just south of DC to SBY.

00z runs are the go/no go run for me. Big question for potential bust on the low end in these parts is whether the lack of aircraft sampling leads to any NWP errors.

SWODY2 has been updated. IMO, this is fine.

^the old Brunswick to Parrs Ridge tornado alley

Yea 00z tonorrow is big for me, need euro et al on board.

Man all we need to see is the GFS and EURO hold serve.

You got any sauce for those of us stuck on mobile?

When the GFS and Euro put ~1,000 SBCAPE for your area, yoi know you're staring at a potentially good event. If this holds, we definitely are looking at something fascinating.

This is a great visualization of the expansive nature of the system as it moves up our way.