Eskimo Joe

95% of a red box for Alabama shortly...looks like it might even be a PDS given the wording in the meso.

Couple of thoughts as we begin to close in on this event: 1.) I'm looking at the evolution of this event today across the south for timing, location of the warm front and low. If we see things are staying further south or rushing along quicker than we could expect a more muted event here tomorrow. 2.) For tomorrow, the satellite and surface obs will be key. If we somehow wind up socked in with east or northeast winds and 55 degrees at 10:00 or 11:00 am then we're probably going to bust. 3.) I would argue the ceiling on this event is pretty high, at least for this area. When even the GFS and Euro are pushing close to 1,200 SBCAPE up towards BWI then there's definitely some strong stuff at work and this isn't a case of the NAM et al being silly.

So uh, on the SWODY2 the 5% tor is into PA and the 10% [hatched] tor is just south of DC to SBY.

00z runs are the go/no go run for me. Big question for potential bust on the low end in these parts is whether the lack of aircraft sampling leads to any NWP errors.

SWODY2 has been updated. IMO, this is fine.

^the old Brunswick to Parrs Ridge tornado alley

Yea 00z tonorrow is big for me, need euro et al on board.

Man all we need to see is the GFS and EURO hold serve.

You got any sauce for those of us stuck on mobile?

When the GFS and Euro put ~1,000 SBCAPE for your area, yoi know you're staring at a potentially good event. If this holds, we definitely are looking at something fascinating.

This is a great visualization of the expansive nature of the system as it moves up our way.

Shush. If they go D2 MOD then I'll agree. We can still fail on this in so many ways and I'm not going to be in 100% until 00z Monday but so far I'm liking what I'm seeing.

I'm getting kind of excited now. These are all good trends up here.

Plenty of ways we can fail on this event, from timing to crapvection to clouds, etc but theres a high ceiling as well.

Yea that'll work this time of year. We just need a bit of SBCAPE and some sun to help the storms get rooted at the surface. This isn't some rotted out 1012mb low, it's going to be rapidly maturing so it won't take much.

Gotta wait and see what happens tomorrow and tomorrow night but so far I like what I see.

If you have Twitter, follow Alicia. She's a wealth of synoptic knowledge

Monday is so close to a big event in these parts. Slow thing down by about 2 to 5 hours and it could be really interesting.

Wow at the NAM....its stupid silly. Even half of what it's showing would be enough for an ENH risk level event here.

NAM going just bonkers down into MS/AL. Like STP close to 10 bonkers.

It would be a legit MOD or maybe HIGH risk day.

HR84 on the 06z GFS is nice.

To East Coasts' point...if we committed nationally to something like this today...we could start opening things up in 3 to 4 weeks. It would take absolute agreement from the business community to allow sick employees to work from home or be given sick leave.