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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Another couplet just SE of Amelia Court House.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like a bit of a CC drop just NE of Midlothian, VA.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like that's a whole cluster trying to spin up. Another notch SW of RIC worth watching.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like may two possible areas of rotation on that warning near RIC? OU CIMMS placefile has experimental TOR probability at 61% damn.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    @yoda @Kmlwx latest SPC meso analysis has better 0-1 SRM helicity. Maybe we do get a tornado watch this afternoon?
  6. Eskimo Joe
    TOR for RIC.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Cell firing in Garrett County, MD looks like it wants to become interesting.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Temps spiking pretty good. IAD up to 72...FDK up to 70.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    DY1 Enhanced Risk for wind coming out. 5% TOR will be expanded.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Outline of the meso is blue, so I'm leaning severe t'storm: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2022/md0376.html
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Several cells firing in central WV which would probably be our action. Visible satellite starting to show breaks in the clouds east of I-81.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    PBZ issuing a tornado warning NW PA.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Might just be me, but it seems like the line is forming and trucking a bit faster than what's been progged on the HRRR and some of the other CAMs. Timing might now be too much of an issue.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Another GR placefile. This one shows the potential for CG: https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PLTG_GOES-East_CONUS_LOOP Typically, if a cell/line/cluster get 50% potential, the ERH offices seem to issue an SPS for it. Good for outdoor activity planning, etc.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    For those of you watching from home with GR radar, here's the experimental NOAA CIMSS placefile for estimating the probability of a storm/cluster/line producing severe weather: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE More info including documentation: https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/training/training.html#psv2
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Bit of clearing in WV resulting in SBCAPE of ~500j/kg and supercell composite starting to nose up. Not going to take a lot of sun today to stir things up.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    SPC meso analysis picked up some okay mid level lapse rates from Baltimore NE into Reading. That might be what they're talking about?
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Today actually reminds me more of Feb 7, 2020. Overcast but conditional tornado threat. Got 2 hours of clearing right before the line and this happened: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20200207
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Let's clear these clouds out and we should he good.
  20. Eskimo Joe
  21. Eskimo Joe
    I'm going to go out on a limb and say there's a non-zero chance of a few spin ups tomorrow, especially if we can realize some prolonged sunshine. This system seems a bit beefier than previously modeled.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Source?
  23. Eskimo Joe
    SPC has nudged the entire D2 SLGT risk further NW...now pretty squarely in the I-81 to I-95 corridor. 15% wind/hail risk.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Think this is probably the first solid SLGT risk regionwide for the year. That should be our benchmark.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    No wonder why we have so many convective snow showers and squalls today...SPC mesoanalysis has us a -20 or better at 700mb across most of Maryland.
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