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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Seems like this year the axis of heavy rain sets up further north and east from that the guidance says. Wonder if that holds true today.
  2. BWI at least ties the record at 96°. All three terminals busted warm. It's the one thing we do well.
  3. Up to 95 degrees in Reisterstown.
  4. Nice. How summer should be.
  5. Really getting tired of the mid 50s for lows in summer.
  6. Just finished washing a fire truck in New Windsor and it has the deep summer soup feel. While we're "stable" here, i wonder if that cluster near Harrisburg develops a cold pool or something and can overcome whatever cap we have here. The CAMS today definitely have been wonky so may the Baltimore area gets to bust in favor of some relief tonight?
  7. IMO, Cappucci just seems to stir the pot when it comes to NWS warning operations. He's gone on about the size of storm based warnings, the size of watch boxes, the color of mesoscale discussion areas on SPC website and other seemingly trivial things. I totally understand that you can question things, but he seems to give back handed compliments pretty regularly.
  8. We just suck at weather. It's that simple. It's always something.
  9. Monster supercell for these parts. Virginia really putting a show on today. Even got a public report of a funnel cloud 1 WSW Louisa, VA.
  10. Tops have gone down by about 20kft and a new cell is popping up to the southwest. Perhaps it went outflow dominant and we're seeing a tremendous wet microburst. I'll bet there is a shelf cloud to end all shelf clouds ongoing.
  11. Orange County, VA cell looks really beefy. Wouldn't shock me if it gets a TOR.
  12. SPC mesoanalysis update have -100 CIN over us. We're just too stable.
  13. Tops on the storm just NW of Culpepper are pushing 60,000 ft. Definitely a wet microburst potential with that cell and certainly warrants the SVR.
  14. I'm really skeptical that we see any action east of I-81 this evening: 1) The line that's being warned this evening is in response to a bit of a lee trough that's feeding off the boundary draped over the Potomac River. We're losing sun now and it will be tough for air mass recovery 2.) East of US 15, the atmosphere is pretty capped so we might get some elevated convection with an okay light show tonight, but that's probably the ceiling for what we can expect. Admittedly, the CAMS has been having trouble with some of this activity, but we're kind of on the outside looking in here.
  15. HRRR and NAM insistent on dropping an MCS or something like it through Delmarva and east of US 15 around morning Thursday.
  16. Yea I thought something might have been off but my Tempest and NWS thermometer for my CWOP station read 94 and 93.7 respectively so it's gotta be legit.
  17. High of 94 today, then the bay breeze kicked in and were at a rather pleasant 88 degrees.
  18. Good animation of how we aren't in a favorable setup for a big MCS or derecho with this pattern. The ridge axis is too far west. We need the ridge to set up shop over western or central Kentucky for things to work out here:
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