raindancewx

Looking at the forecast from last May, the European did pretty well, but the ENSO tended to come in on the low side of the plume. That's my guess for the next few months, given how April verified. I think there is one or two months mid-Summer with a +0.5C or so reading, and then maybe a rebound later on. If you look on Tropical Tidbits, there is definitely some thinning of the unusual warmth in Nino 3.4, at least for now. A low point around late May to June and then a gradual rebound in July is what I'd go with given this -

Lots of snow in northern New Mexico overnight. My high tomorrow is forecast to be about 53F in Albuquerque - literally 40F or so colder than last year. Angel Fire had 18" at the base, 24" at the summit.

I honestly don't have a good read on the Fall yet. I think there will be some weakening for the next 4-6 weeks in an ONI sense, and then the event may re-develop. A lot of back to back El Nino winters see a brief return to Neutral SSTs in Summer or early Fall, 1976-77 / 1977-78, or 1968-69 / 1969-70 for example. Others keep on trucking like 2014-15, 2015-16, 1986-87, 1987-88 without a break, although 1987-88 was cold pretty early on below the surface in the 100-180W zone ahead of the big 1988 La Nina. The six month AMO value for Nov-Apr did come in around +0.00, which is one of the reasons the country ended up so wet in recent months. Last time that happened was before May 2015, which (at the time) was the wettest month on record.

It's possible we aren't, but I know through Oct 2018, 50-months in a row had seen y/y declines, and in the past six months four months are up y/y by small amounts. I think it be about flat to erratically up for a bit. The last absolute minimum was right 2/2009 but sometimes the solar cycles are 10 years, 12, 9, or 13, and not 11. I've been pretty happy with the pattern overall, we're coming up on our 8th month in a row with y/y declines in monthly high temperatures, almost unheard of in the last 100 years. The mountains still look white when I drive in to work, as they have since October. Here is a look at Taos Powderhorn y/y - the giant spike was the "Kansas Hurricane" / Bomb Cyclone of mid-March. Generally it does tend to be warm or dry here when the mountains retain substantial snow into June.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 24APR2019 25.2 0.1 28.3 0.9 28.7 0.9 29.2 0.7 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Cold water below the surface is expanding, and net subsurface heat continues to decline toward 0. Expecting ONI El Nino conditions (+0.5C v. long-term averages in Nino 3.4) to end by July.

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 ONI update. Monthlies came in a bit lower than I thought, but still near the 28.6C on the weeklies. 2018 7 27.42 27.26 0.16 2018 8 26.95 26.91 0.04 2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83 2019 3 28.11 27.21 0.90 2019 4 28.46 27.73 0.72 My analog blend for Summer is this - but I'm making a couple changes to it. SST 3.4 Feb Mar Apr 1966 27.55 28.21 28.16 1966 27.55 28.21 28.16 1987 27.88 28.27 28.39 1992 28.53 28.66 29.02 1993 27.16 27.67 28.41 2015 27.17 27.75 28.52 Mean 27.64 28.13 28.44 2019 27.48 28.13 28.46

The subsurface numbers for April came in at +0.65 - way day from prior months but still pretty positive. The six closest objective subsurface matches for Feb-Apr look almost identical to the Canadian temperature forecast in May, so that's likely a good forecast. I'll post my Summer forecast in here around 5/10, but I think 1992/1993 need to be included as analogs given that April 1992 is the warmest Nino 3.4 reading on record (29.0C), and 1993 had all the flooding in the Plains, as well as a similar strength storm to the record-setting storm over KS/CO/NM in mid-March. May 2019 could end up substantially warmer in Nino 3.4 than Springs after the Super Ninos like 1983, 1998, 2016. Solar activity is still low but it does seem to be climbing now, with most recent months now up y/y. That has some implications for next year too. March/April warmth in Nino 3.4 are both very strong warm signals for the Southeast US in July.

Canadian trended much colder for the West in May. Has El Nino into next winter.

The newest Canadian run has El Nino continuing into next winter. It also shifted to a dramatically colder May in the Western half of the US. Has it as a basin-wide event now, instead of an east-central El Nino

Pretty happy with my Spring Outlook overall - let's see how I do in May.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 24APR2019 25.2 0.1 28.3 0.9 28.7 0.9 29.2 0.7 A 28.6C April in Nino 3.4 is pretty impressive. Here is a look at 2016 for comparison - barely warmer despite a much greater winter peak. 06APR2016 27.1 1.3 28.8 1.4 28.9 1.3 29.3 0.9 13APR2016 25.6 0.1 28.6 1.2 29.1 1.3 29.3 0.8 20APR2016 24.7-0.6 28.0 0.6 28.9 1.1 29.4 0.8 27APR2016 24.7-0.3 27.7 0.4 28.7 0.8 29.5 0.9 Warmer than April 2010 in Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 too. 07APR2010 26.0 0.3 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.8 29.3 0.9 14APR2010 26.6 1.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.7 29.2 0.7 21APR2010 26.0 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 28APR2010 25.2 0.3 27.8 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.3 0.7

This winter/spring makes me think that "atmospheric" El Nino (SOI, etc) matters more for the Eastern US than "ocean El Nino" (ONI, SSTs, PDO, etc). Will be interesting to see if there are more disjointed El Ninos (by SOI v. SST) like this in the future. In the 1930s, during the Dustbowl, there were years that tried to be El Ninos during low-solar, warm AMO periods that ended up with huge cold snaps in the West and Plains, I wonder if that's going to become more common again. The 2017-18 cold season was an unusually strong East-based La Nina like 1933-34 was (Nino 1.2 coldest in over 30 years during US winter for a few months), during a very low-solar period (similar AMO seasons too, even for hurricanes).

Doesn't look a La Nina is coming soon to me, but I do think a steady decline to Neutral conditions is pretty likely into late Summer or Fall now.

The flow on the Rio Grande River is currently around 10x higher than last April in parts of New Mexico. This time last year, the riverbed of the Rio Grande south of Socorro was sandy, the edges of its channel strewn with desiccated fish. Even through Albuquerque, the state’s largest river was flowing at just about 400 cubic feet per second, exposing long sandbars and running just inches deep. This year, the Middle Rio Grande is booming, nearly ten times higher than it was last April—and it’s still rising. Running bank-to-bank, the river’s waters are lapping up over low spots along the bank, nourishing trees and grasses, replenishing groundwater and creating much-needed habitat for young fish and other creatures. Combined storage in Elephant Butte and Caballo is about 324,000 acre feet as of Thursday, or roughly 14 percent capacity. Last fall, storage in the two reservoirs dropped below three percent. Levels in those two reservoirs matter not only to downstream water users, but also those upstream along the Rio Grande. Since last May, New Mexico has had to abide by Article VII of the Rio Grande Compact of 1938. When combined storage in Elephant Butte and Caballo reservoirs drops below 400,000 acre feet, Colorado and New Mexico can’t store water in any of the upstream reservoirs built after 1929. This includes Heron, El Vado and Abiquiu reservoirs in New Mexico. Now, water managers expect that New Mexico will be out of Article VII restrictions in mid-May. Once that happens, the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, which supplies water to irrigators in the Albuquerque area, can start holding water in upstream reservoirs. They’re expecting to store about 40,000 acre-feet of water before water levels drop again later this year. http://nmpoliticalreport.com/2019/04/26/rio-grande-roars-to-life-with-runoff/

If the monthly figure in Nino 3.4 is above 28.52C - entirely possible as the monthly data is different than the weeklies - that's one of five warmest readings since 1950.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 Steady. Subsurface heat for 100-180W is back down to +0.7 after hitting +1.5 around 3/1 (page 11 on the link). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

MJO has re-awakened for a jaunt through phases 2-3, for a week to ten days if the European is right. Cold signal for lots of the US in April. SOI is still behaving like an El Nino for the most part. Models are trending to a storm over the SW around Monday/Tuesday in light of the big crash from 4/9 to 4/11 (35 points) or the 4/11 to 4/13 crash. You tend to get a low in the SW ten days after a big crash. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 20 Apr 2019 1010.44 1010.50 -17.67 -3.02 -7.02 19 Apr 2019 1011.70 1011.75 -17.59 -2.63 -6.77 18 Apr 2019 1013.01 1011.75 -8.15 -2.16 -6.47 17 Apr 2019 1012.26 1011.40 -11.03 -1.94 -6.26 16 Apr 2019 1012.95 1011.55 -7.14 -1.86 -6.12 15 Apr 2019 1013.08 1011.25 -4.04 -1.93 -6.12 14 Apr 2019 1011.39 1011.10 -15.14 -2.11 -6.13 13 Apr 2019 1009.59 1011.10 -28.12 -1.89 -6.01 12 Apr 2019 1009.69 1010.60 -23.80 -1.53 -5.80 11 Apr 2019 1010.80 1010.80 -17.23 -1.24 -5.60 10 Apr 2019 1012.52 1010.15 -0.15 -1.13 -5.38 9 Apr 2019 1013.55 1008.80 17.01 -1.68 -5.46 8 Apr 2019 1013.87 1008.10 24.37 -2.65 -5.67 7 Apr 2019 1013.79 1009.80 11.53 -3.68 -5.94 6 Apr 2019 1014.01 1009.70 13.84 -4.09 -6.12 5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37 4 Apr 2019 1013.38 1008.60 17.23 -5.88 -6.84 3 Apr 2019 1013.08 1009.35 9.66 -6.60 -7.25 2 Apr 2019 1010.89 1009.65 -8.29 -6.99 -7.50 1 Apr 2019 1011.13 1009.35 -4.40 -6.89 -7.52

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 Still solidly in El Nino territory. That said, the warmth below the surface is thinning rapidly now and some cool water is showing up. I'm in the camp that this event stays above the +0.5C threshold at the surface longer than most El Ninos, into June or July, but not convinced it lasts after that. Could redevelop in Fall, but I think we're about due for an extended Neutral period, we'll see.

Ruidoso, Santa Fe and most high elevation zones have had good snows in the past week. Here is Ruidoso.

Nate Mantua sent out the March PDO value for 2019 the other day, and their new website. PDO Index values for 2019 January 0.66 February 0.46 March 0.37 The updated and full UW-JISAO version of the PDO index is now available online at: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO Nate

European April run is pretty confident on El Nino continuing (above black line) into July, but doesn't have a good read on what will happen after - either rapid weakening or re-strengthening.

Big SOI drop recently. Drop is comparable to the one ahead of the Blizzard of 1993 Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Apr 2019 1012.52 1010.15 -0.15 -1.13 -5.38 9 Apr 2019 1013.55 1008.80 17.01 -1.68 -5.46 8 Apr 2019 1013.87 1008.10 24.37 -2.65 -5.67 7 Apr 2019 1013.79 1009.80 11.53 -3.68 -5.94 6 Apr 2019 1014.01 1009.70 13.84 -4.09 -6.12 5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37 4 Apr 2019 1013.38 1008.60 17.23 -5.88 -6.84 3 Apr 2019 1013.08 1009.35 9.66 -6.60 -7.25 2 Apr 2019 1010.89 1009.65 -8.29 -6.99 -7.50 1 Apr 2019 1011.13 1009.35 -4.40 -6.89 -7.52

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9 20FEB2019 26.4 0.2 27.0 0.5 27.5 0.7 29.1 1.0 27FEB2019 26.6 0.4 27.6 1.0 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 El Nino through at least FMA.

There is a new MEI data set out there now, for anyone interested since Klaus Wolter retired. SOI should see a big drop in the next few days if the Euro MSLP forecasts are right. The -NAO forecast over the next few days is a fairly strong cold signal for cold in New Mexico in June, and the West generally in May. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37 4 Apr 2019 1013.38 1008.60 17.23 -5.88 -6.84 3 Apr 2019 1013.08 1009.35 9.66 -6.60 -7.25 2 Apr 2019 1010.89 1009.65 -8.29 -6.99 -7.50 1 Apr 2019 1011.13 1009.35 -4.40 -6.89 -7.52

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 El Nino is official. March was 28.13C, +0.93C using the CPC standard. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83 2019 3 28.14 27.21 0.93