raindancewx

The latest subsurface update does look a bit better. European is still not 100% on board with a La Nina, but I've been expecting a ~26.0C Nino 3.4 in Dec-Feb, and that still looks about right, whether its a hair on the Neutral side or a hair on the La Nina side. The cold water has really thinned by South America though, and there is still a lot of warmth below Nino 4. To me there is some potential for a cool peak in Fall for Nino 3.4 - maybe to near -1.0 as the cold comes up - and then it warms fairly consistently through winter. There is some intense cold right now in Nino 3/3.4 but it isn't a very large or deep area. Once that surfaces, you'd expect the warmth west of it and below it to have a shot at coming up.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01JUL2020 21.1-1.1 25.5-0.5 27.3-0.1 29.1 0.3 08JUL2020 21.1-0.8 25.3-0.5 27.2-0.1 29.1 0.3 15JUL2020 20.2-1.5 25.1-0.6 27.0-0.2 28.8 0.0 22JUL2020 20.2-1.2 25.0-0.5 26.8-0.4 28.7-0.1 29JUL2020 20.1-1.1 24.7-0.7 26.3-0.8 28.4-0.4 05AUG2020 19.8-1.2 24.6-0.6 26.3-0.6 28.4-0.3 Nino 3 has been in La Nina conditions for three months now. Nino 3.4 / 4 keep warming up each time a cold pulse reaches them. I'm starting to think this will be a "Nino 3" La Nina, but an official Neutral. August is still cold below the surface so far, but barely. The level of coolness is actually very similar to last year, which is interesting since August looks very similar so far.

CPC is set to update its baseline averages in 2021 for El Nino and La Nina. It looks to me like the new winter average (DJF) in Nino 3.4 is going to be right around 26.63C for 1991-2020, whereas the 1951-2010 average is 26.50C. Any event that can finish below 26.15C or so will be classified as a La Nina in 2020-21. I've been pretty impressed with 2003/2010 for how close that blend is to the tropical pacific and has been for a while now. I'll have my winter outlook out in October - but this looks like an easier forecast than last winter to me. For the past three months, the subsurface is a very strong match to 1984, 2003, 2003, 2010 as a blend too. My general sense is the NAO will be positive, with the PDO negative, and La Nina/near La Nina conditions. Solar activity has been increasing lately, but not dramatically. That's similar to 2009, when the absolute floor was in February. That's a bit of a wildcard. My current leading analog blend for winter has an ACE index around 160 for the Atlantic in 2020, which currently looks about right - we'll see it goes. 100-180W May June July 1984 -1.11 -1.15 -0.25 2003 -0.85 0.13 0.53 2003 -0.85 0.13 0.53 2010 -1.00 -1.34 -1.36 Blend -0.95 -0.56 -0.14 2020 -0.92 -0.62 -0.17

For reference. The European had a substantial warm up in Nino 3.4 (slightly different from CPC - they only show slight warming because they use a different baseline for what is average each month).

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 17JUN2020 22.2-0.5 25.7-0.7 27.2-0.4 29.1 0.2 24JUN2020 21.6-0.8 25.8-0.4 27.6 0.1 29.3 0.5 01JUL2020 21.1-1.1 25.5-0.5 27.3-0.1 29.1 0.3 08JUL2020 21.1-0.8 25.3-0.5 27.2-0.1 29.1 0.3 15JUL2020 20.2-1.5 25.1-0.6 27.0-0.2 28.8 0.0 22JUL2020 20.2-1.2 25.0-0.5 26.8-0.4 28.7-0.1 29JUL2020 20.1-1.1 24.7-0.7 26.3-0.8 28.4-0.4 CPC had May-July at -0.2C. The current weekly data actually looks like a La Nina - we'll see if it continues.

The heat content of the upper 300m of 100-180W at the equator warmed to near average temperatures in July. Still colder than in 2017 which did become a La Nina late. But, the trend in 2017 was already sharply down by this down by point - not up. In 2017, you had across the board cooling in July. We've had across the board uninterrupted warming since May. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt YR MON 130E-80W 160E-80W 180W-100W 2017 4 0.34 0.28 0.06 2017 5 0.37 0.36 0.30 2017 6 0.21 0.22 0.22 2017 7 0.13 0.15 0.16 2017 8 -0.19 -0.21 -0.40 2020 4 -0.20 -0.24 -0.30 2020 5 -0.51 -0.70 -0.92 2020 6 -0.35 -0.54 -0.62 2020 7 -0.10 -0.22 -0.13

Some very heavy rain moved through here recently. CFS and Canadian both have August warm/dry for the entire West. I'm a bit skeptical, but we'll see. I think there should be pretty powerful (for August) cold fronts by the end of the month.

The monsoon has brought colder temperatures and near daily rain here as of late, but we remain below average in most spots for July rain. The CFS has trended NM/CO drier and warmer since a few days ago, but still has Arizona pretty wet for the month. Albuquerque actually had a lot of rain in June, so the June-July total here for rain will be pretty normal (near 2.0" is normal, and we're near that now). I'm actually a bit more optimistic for December now, we started July with top five warmth, but we're going to finish relatively near average for how warm the month started. As late as 7/15 or so the high here was about 97F, but it's going to finish right around where I had it, 93.5F or so for the month.

Closer this week. Nino 4 continues to resist cooling meaningfully. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 17JUN2020 22.2-0.5 25.7-0.7 27.2-0.4 29.1 0.2 24JUN2020 21.6-0.8 25.8-0.4 27.6 0.1 29.3 0.5 01JUL2020 21.1-1.1 25.5-0.5 27.3-0.1 29.1 0.3 08JUL2020 21.1-0.8 25.3-0.5 27.2-0.1 29.1 0.3 15JUL2020 20.2-1.5 25.1-0.6 27.0-0.2 28.8 0.0 22JUL2020 20.2-1.2 25.0-0.5 26.8-0.4 28.7-0.1

I've been updating my sheets that compare solar tendencies to weather in Albuquerque. First look since 2015-16 data was in. - Snowfall frequency in March & April now looks like it may be significantly impacted by the sun, with two of the last four low solar years seeing snow in April in Albuquerque (way above average frequency for four years) and none of the last four Marches seeing snow (way below average frequency, especially with two El Ninos). Over the next 10 years, I think snow frequency for March & April will both become statistically significant between the high and low parts of the solar cycle here - both have p-values of around 0.05-0.10 if you do a difference in proportions test right now. - Cold winter highs in Albuquerque are still far more common with low solar activity. This held up to some extent in the last four years, with 2018-19 about 2F below the 30-year average (1991-2020), and 2019-20 about 0.5F below the 30 year average, with the winters also below (2018-19) and dead on average v. the past 100 year average highs. - Heavy snow months are much more likely in high solar winters, despite the tendency for low solar winters to be colder. The data now includes 89 years, up from 85 before, with a substantial growth in low solar years (32, +4). I waited until we had two more La Nina and two more El Ninos for the update too. Long term, the odds of very heavy precipitation in a high solar winter also seem to be nearing statistical significance relative to low solar winters. For snow, it looks like there is an extra 19 percentage point shot at getting 2", 3", 4", 5", or 6" of snow in a month with high solar activity, compared to low solar activity.

For reference: Big time cooling from a warm MJJ in 2017 is not happening right now. Instead, there is a warming trend for May. This is consistent with the SW cooling off recently. When there are big drops in subsurface heat, we fry with almost no moisture. When there is a big warm up, it cools off and gets stormier - pretty much immediately. We were very hot here in Apr/May but have cooled off in June, and have trended much colder lately in July. January 2017 was also extremely wet.

Hurricane warning for Texas! Putting a lot of moisture in the Rio Grande Valley is probably good for us to the West though.

Rain, clouds and humidity really broke the heat here - lots of days in the 80s now. Dew points over 60 - which always feels super weird and humid here. Month is on target to be near the 93.5F forecast I had for Albuquerque in July. The CFS continues to trend to a wet/cold August for NM, CO, AZ, and UT - it's been a while since that has happened down here, so I'd love to see it.

I don't see anything to force big changes in Nino 3.4 at the moment, for say 2-4 weeks. Everything is remarkably near average below the surface down to 200m in Nino 3.4

We're still in a non-Nina Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 17JUN2020 22.2-0.5 25.7-0.7 27.2-0.4 29.1 0.2 24JUN2020 21.6-0.8 25.8-0.4 27.6 0.1 29.3 0.5 01JUL2020 21.1-1.1 25.5-0.5 27.3-0.1 29.1 0.3 08JUL2020 21.1-0.8 25.3-0.5 27.2-0.1 29.1 0.3 15JUL2020 20.2-1.5 25.1-0.6 27.0-0.2 28.8 0.0 The 2017 event came on super late though - have to watch for that. The very cold water below eastern Nino 3/1.2 seems to be surfacing now. 10MAY2017 25.4 1.0 27.8 0.6 28.3 0.5 29.1 0.4 17MAY2017 25.2 1.1 27.6 0.5 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.3 24MAY2017 24.2 0.4 27.5 0.6 28.4 0.6 29.1 0.3 31MAY2017 23.7 0.2 27.2 0.5 28.3 0.6 29.2 0.4 07JUN2017 23.1-0.1 26.9 0.3 28.1 0.4 29.3 0.5 14JUN2017 22.9 0.0 26.7 0.2 28.2 0.5 29.4 0.6 21JUN2017 22.9 0.3 26.7 0.4 28.3 0.7 29.5 0.7 28JUN2017 22.8 0.4 26.5 0.4 28.1 0.7 29.4 0.6 05JUL2017 21.7-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.4 0.6 12JUL2017 21.8 0.0 26.1 0.4 27.8 0.5 29.3 0.5 19JUL2017 21.4-0.1 25.7 0.2 27.6 0.4 29.2 0.4 26JUL2017 21.3 0.0 25.5 0.1 27.1 0.0 28.9 0.2 02AUG2017 20.9-0.1 25.4 0.1 27.2 0.2 28.9 0.2 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 23AUG2017 19.6-1.0 24.6-0.4 26.7-0.1 28.9 0.2 30AUG2017 20.3-0.2 24.5-0.4 26.5-0.2 28.8 0.2

Looks like the cold east / warm west should continue for a bit in the Nino zones. Not really a whole lot of intense warmth or cold in the Nino 3.4 zone. The Euro is still more on board with a cold Neutral than a La Nina too -

I'm expecting a bit of a crap winter for much of the West this year, but not so much for temperatures. Mostly for consistent below average precipitation. A hot high July in NM is almost preceded by a pretty warm December for much of the West, but I think we'll cool off later in the winter. No measurable rain in Albuquerque this July means the odds of an active monsoon are already below 25% using historical precipitation data, and that disfavors heavy December snow/big snowstorms late December historically for NM & CO. I would like to see a huge August for precipitation down here - it is way overdue. If the Atlantic turns hyperactive for hurricanes that is pretty much always a bad sign for a cold Western winter too (1933, 2005, 2017) - something to watch.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 17JUN2020 22.2-0.5 25.7-0.7 27.2-0.4 29.1 0.2 24JUN2020 21.6-0.8 25.8-0.4 27.6 0.1 29.3 0.5 01JUL2020 21.1-1.1 25.5-0.5 27.3-0.1 29.1 0.3 08JUL2020 21.1-0.8 25.3-0.5 27.2-0.1 29.1 0.3 At the surface, the eastern areas are colder than La Ninas that developed in 2005 and 2017. But the subsurface was flipping colder in those years in July. It is still trending warmer at the moment. Still think a La Nina is possible, but it does have some headwinds going against it at the moment.

Something to watch in the coming weeks - we've never had a La Nina in DJF, i.e. Nino 3.4 below 26.0C for that period - when the waters below the surface of 100-180W at the equator are warmer than average in August. The June reading for 100-180w below the surface was -0.6, but there has been a steady warming of the cool subsurface waters. I don't know that August is a lock to be below 0 at this point. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

You can get rain here, (in the Southwest) under high pressure because the moisture gets trapped in the high and forced up by the heating of the day into clouds. Maybe your issue is the dryness of the mountain air rather than the elevation? Many people get more/less congested from rapid changes in humidity. Dew point differences of 40-70 points are unusual outside the deserts/mountains, but here you can have a dry Summer day where it is 100 degrees but the dew point temperature is 40 degrees, for something like 8% relative humidity, and then the next day it might go to 92 degrees with a dew point temperature of 50, and all of the sudden relative humidity is way up.

There is a lot of warm water now below the surface of Nino 3.4 and Nino 4. I think winter may end up looking like 2012-13, with a lot of cold water by South America, but Nino 4 still fairly warm and Nino 3.4 either cold Neutral or only barely a La Nina. I kind of like 25.8-26.2C for Nino 3.4 in Dec-Feb. To me, below 26.0C is a La Nina.

Albuquerque hit 101 yesterday - but that was sort of an underachievement really, as it actually did get to 94 by Noon. Typically you add 10 degrees from noon to the high here. Today may be the day though. If you look at the subsurface waters, there is no La Nina imminent, but Nino 3 is still cold and getting reinforced. The 2012-13 winter is a similar look to now, pretty cold right by South America but still pretty warm in Nino 4 and only cold neutral in Nino 3.4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

The local NWS actually has 104 now for July 12th. I'm skeptical that it will be that hot this late into the year. It hasn't been over 100 here in the July 7 - Sept 30 time frame since 2010. It has only happened twice since 2000, in 2003 and 2010. Hitting 100 exactly is a lot more common. But 104 would be top five for heat after week one of July. Initially, last week, it had looked like July 7 or so would see 100 degree heat, but it doesn't look like it will now. Today is certainly clear, it will be in the mid-90s. My rule for Albuquerque highs is that the temperature at noon is 10 degrees below the high. So 104 implies a 94 degree reading at Noon. I've been in Albuquerque since 2010 and I think that's only happened one day in 10 years. Today was 86 at noon, and sure enough it is 94 at 3 pm, and will probably get to 96. It's pretty hard to be 94 at Noon here, since the lows even on the hottest days, tend to drop to about 70 around 6 am. We'll see though.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 17JUN2020 22.2-0.5 25.7-0.7 27.2-0.4 29.1 0.2 24JUN2020 21.6-0.8 25.8-0.4 27.6 0.1 29.3 0.5 01JUL2020 21.1-1.1 25.5-0.5 27.3-0.1 29.1 0.3 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2020 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 According to CPC's standard, Nino 3.4 was still cold Neutral in June. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2020 4 28.18 27.73 0.45 2020 5 27.65 27.85 -0.19 2020 6 27.36 27.65 -0.29

My guess is enough moisture will come up from the south to slow down the warm up on a couple of days, at least for parts of Eastern Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. The models favored strong monsoon activity over the mountains of old Mexico in July, so any mechanism that can bring the moisture up efficiently should bring relief to particularly hot highs, even if it is just via cloudiness. The GFS is pretty wet for eastern Colorado in particular over the next five days.