raindancewx

Looks like we made it. August finished up as an extremely close match to 1970. Some kind of blend of 1970, 1971, 1984, 1996, 2020 works well. January 1971 featured near-all time record heat and all-time record cold in the Southwest and shows up as a warm month. Locally...we had highs near 70 and lows near -20 in the same month in ABQ. I know people say "La Nina = -PNA" or whatever, but those correlations don't exist in Summer if you look on the CPC correlations by time page. Correlation in Summer for the PNA is near 0. The variable CPC lists as "Solar" has near double the correlation to the PNA as Nino 3.4 in August...I doubt anyone here believes sunspots control the PNA in August? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_aug.txt

'Dead August' v. 'Non-Dead-August' September activity doesn't quite pass a difference in proportion test at the 5% level. Can't reject the notion that September has the same long-term activity following very low August activity. But it's really close. The p-value was 0.06, and you'd reject the "no difference from a dead idea" if it had been 0.05. https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Hurricane/hurr.atl.ace.data 1851-2019 ACE by month for anyone interested. August ACE 0-10: 70 instances since 1851. September ACE over 50, following 0-10 ACE August: 17/70 (53/70 under 50) September ACE over 100, following 0-10 August: 1/70 (69/70 under 100) All Septembers >50 ACE 52/169 September following the non-Dead Augusts: 35/99 (36%) Septembers >50 ACE September following the dead-Augusts: 17/70 (24%) Septembers >50 ACE ACE is sustained winds in knots squared divided by 10,000, as measured every six hours. So odds are pretty against more than ~12 days with a 100 kt hurricane. 1851 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.91 0.89 21.83 4.00 4.61 0.00 0.00 1852 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.36 31.24 15.68 0.00 0.00 1853 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.27 63.90 10.32 0.00 0.00 1854 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.90 0.00 0.36 23.08 3.66 0.00 0.00 1855 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.86 7.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 1856 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 38.40 10.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 1857 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 44.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 1858 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.00 0.49 32.41 11.40 0.00 0.00 1859 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 9.72 13.54 31.66 0.00 0.00 1860 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.40 22.74 16.92 0.00 0.00 1861 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.76 24.67 2.69 5.57 4.02 0.00 1862 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 10.02 23.44 5.15 4.42 0.00 1863 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.35 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1864 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.72 11.76 4.41 4.66 0.00 0.00 1865 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.00 6.10 27.83 14.70 0.00 0.00 1866 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.29 13.97 34.79 20.60 0.00 0.00 1867 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.04 8.74 10.49 9.95 27.75 0.00 0.00 1868 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.00 23.65 0.00 0.00 1869 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.58 35.70 4.74 0.00 0.00 1870 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 2.70 36.98 43.28 4.35 0.00 1871 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.74 0.00 52.86 13.46 16.33 0.00 0.00 1872 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.28 23.50 23.62 14.98 0.00 0.00 1873 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.96 0.00 33.36 16.23 18.92 0.00 0.00 1874 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.80 10.34 26.04 0.82 7.05 0.00 1875 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.84 48.28 16.36 0.00 0.00 1876 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.67 33.38 0.00 0.00 1877 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.11 50.61 16.00 1.64 0.00 1878 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.76 31.47 50.78 87.80 7.40 1.64 1879 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 35.72 5.21 17.38 5.32 0.00 1880 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.56 0.00 60.14 27.55 40.83 0.00 0.00 1881 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 44.28 14.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 1882 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.45 35.76 21.26 0.00 0.00 1883 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.11 28.31 2.28 0.00 0.00 1884 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 51.77 20.29 0.00 0.00 1885 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.69 24.30 5.31 0.00 0.00 1886 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.58 15.40 70.95 36.33 22.90 0.00 0.00 1887 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.28 1.10 20.51 54.31 39.45 38.80 4.85 14.95 1888 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.56 1.52 20.83 27.64 7.78 24.61 0.00 1889 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.93 5.30 0.00 12.42 72.93 7.48 0.00 0.00 1890 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.24 0.00 0.00 26.91 2.21 2.56 0.43 0.00 1891 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.34 39.47 37.22 29.53 2.55 0.00 1892 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.39 0.00 8.35 62.09 40.00 0.00 0.00 1893 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.31 5.60 119.66 22.95 67.47 5.16 0.00 1894 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.96 0.00 4.30 53.10 76.06 0.00 0.00 1895 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.33 1.59 43.84 0.00 0.00 1896 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.72 3.60 77.90 22.46 24.40 0.00 1897 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 37.60 16.57 0.00 0.00 1898 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.25 77.05 29.15 2.78 0.00 1899 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 3.77 78.50 48.63 17.37 2.27 0.00 1900 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.08 73.72 6.54 0.00 0.00 1901 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.98 20.30 20.86 42.97 7.31 6.56 0.00 1902 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.66 0.00 0.00 8.91 12.52 4.56 0.00 1903 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.89 28.95 30.54 24.23 12.46 0.00 1904 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.89 0.00 0.00 11.35 14.40 1.70 0.00 1905 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.81 19.57 0.00 0.00 1906 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.15 0.00 12.84 94.61 33.27 4.02 0.00 1907 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.77 0.00 0.00 3.36 2.03 3.91 0.00 1908 0.00 0.00 5.84 0.00 6.04 0.00 9.81 3.89 45.53 24.00 0.00 0.00 1909 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.85 9.78 26.89 19.67 17.21 9.94 0.00 1910 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.58 33.27 29.05 0.00 0.00 1911 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.72 13.82 3.12 0.00 0.00 1912 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.22 2.23 0.00 8.90 17.30 20.61 0.00 1913 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.94 0.00 5.96 17.20 6.50 0.00 0.00 1914 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 1915 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 47.21 82.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 1916 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.46 0.00 38.78 32.76 31.33 36.24 3.44 0.00 1917 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.53 6.59 52.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 1918 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.96 18.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 1919 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.97 0.00 49.28 0.28 3.52 0.00 1920 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 29.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 1921 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.71 0.00 0.00 46.22 29.36 2.24 0.00 1922 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 0.00 0.00 39.65 14.05 0.00 0.00 1923 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.79 0.00 0.00 34.10 13.43 0.00 0.00 1924 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.61 1.95 37.83 18.95 29.89 9.95 0.00 1925 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.15 0.97 0.00 1.83 0.30 1926 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.39 36.97 132.18 36.54 1.47 0.00 1927 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.55 28.09 3.81 3.04 0.00 1928 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.49 55.32 8.66 0.00 0.00 1929 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.20 0.00 0.00 33.54 10.32 0.00 0.00 1930 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.43 27.90 2.44 0.00 0.00 1931 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.25 2.55 6.55 27.24 2.09 7.16 0.00 1932 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.34 0.00 0.00 11.89 71.22 11.24 70.98 0.00 1933 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.08 9.78 35.81 64.35 111.33 28.21 6.01 0.00 1934 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.55 9.07 8.48 16.71 10.05 15.21 0.00 1935 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.75 0.00 0.00 26.75 46.11 13.36 18.24 0.00 1936 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.17 7.03 24.35 58.05 0.74 0.00 2.43 1937 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.14 8.60 51.03 4.07 0.00 0.00 1938 4.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.83 41.53 5.25 2.77 0.00 1939 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.32 0.00 9.26 2.35 20.41 7.35 0.00 1940 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.69 0.00 0.00 24.57 32.51 6.02 0.00 0.00 1941 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.22 15.55 0.00 0.00 1942 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.05 9.91 7.04 9.48 0.00 1943 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.75 29.10 39.58 19.58 0.00 0.00 1944 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.32 24.75 36.72 29.49 2.17 0.00 1945 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.05 0.98 20.26 22.83 10.29 0.00 0.00 1946 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.86 4.14 0.49 5.96 7.44 0.73 0.00 1947 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 14.21 45.28 28.76 0.00 0.00 1948 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.37 19.06 49.18 20.58 3.30 0.00 1949 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.47 43.80 22.71 3.46 0.00 1950 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 63.17 93.85 52.26 2.01 0.00 1951 5.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.15 0.00 0.00 24.32 57.76 17.36 0.00 5.31 1952 0.00 1.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.26 32.35 21.62 3.53 0.00 1953 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.82 5.51 1.77 8.53 58.65 18.65 1.90 1.67 1954 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.17 7.39 3.99 13.70 29.81 45.93 0.74 1.68 1955 6.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.41 62.47 85.31 9.98 0.00 0.00 1956 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.32 1.84 28.42 9.36 3.94 10.79 0.00 1957 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.50 0.00 2.10 63.68 3.39 0.00 0.00 1958 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.23 1.22 0.00 48.15 45.94 13.16 0.00 0.00 1959 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.11 4.95 7.16 6.04 28.23 28.61 0.00 0.00 1960 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.06 9.57 5.07 57.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 1961 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.26 0.00 139.59 42.81 8.74 0.00 1962 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.45 2.84 26.27 0.00 0.00 1963 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.90 20.95 69.08 0.00 0.00 1964 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.07 0.20 34.32 104.57 26.75 0.86 0.00 1965 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.29 0.00 9.90 65.74 7.39 0.00 0.00 1966 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.40 19.02 27.38 42.12 33.45 8.85 0.00 1967 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.89 97.58 23.24 0.00 0.00 1968 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.15 0.00 6.03 15.62 10.27 0.00 0.00 1969 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.03 58.28 36.96 52.60 13.86 0.00 1970 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.19 0.00 1.88 12.74 8.52 14.85 0.00 0.00 1971 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.82 10.75 73.92 1.67 8.61 0.00 1972 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.12 6.77 0.00 13.85 11.09 0.00 1.77 0.00 1973 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.26 6.67 19.92 13.99 0.00 0.00 1974 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.97 1.74 17.64 45.41 2.62 0.00 0.00 1975 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.01 7.92 9.53 42.93 11.20 0.00 2.47 1976 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.02 0.00 1.08 46.37 25.06 9.65 0.00 0.00 1977 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.09 19.03 3.20 0.00 0.00 1978 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 7.55 46.40 6.89 0.20 0.00 1979 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 3.72 33.41 53.33 1.64 0.00 0.00 1980 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.10 51.69 18.64 12.52 0.00 1981 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.74 1.71 0.25 7.90 76.07 2.87 10.79 0.00 1982 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.10 0.00 3.24 21.51 1.65 0.00 0.00 1983 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.52 7.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.26 30.64 21.30 12.86 16.24 1985 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.93 18.43 33.68 11.59 19.35 0.00 1986 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.12 0.00 5.63 21.24 0.00 3.80 0.00 1987 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.86 16.16 3.34 0.00 0.00 1988 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.03 71.97 24.00 4.99 0.00 1989 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.93 2.45 35.00 90.08 4.02 0.82 1.82 1990 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.05 32.91 25.72 30.13 0.00 0.00 1991 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.25 7.97 18.05 5.91 2.37 0.00 1992 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.45 37.97 8.72 0.00 0.00 1993 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.00 19.85 18.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.57 8.32 2.88 0.00 19.26 0.00 1995 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.08 11.10 80.78 85.43 45.12 1.58 0.00 1996 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 21.35 55.46 57.46 25.01 6.09 0.00 1997 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 11.23 0.00 26.64 2.24 0.00 0.00 1998 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 42.79 88.57 39.50 7.58 1.41 1999 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.42 0.00 54.35 78.08 20.81 19.87 0.00 2000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 43.71 52.17 23.26 0.00 0.00 2001 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.30 0.00 10.02 51.88 17.07 28.76 1.05 2002 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.53 3.41 46.75 15.74 0.00 0.00 2003 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.19 0.00 1.19 14.00 11.52 111.06 30.50 0.00 4.81 2004 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 64.69 155.01 5.24 1.09 0.85 2005 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.92 60.38 39.22 68.21 52.41 8.97 13.22 2006 4.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.76 2.94 9.59 59.64 3.61 0.00 0.00 2007 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.77 0.53 35.80 29.00 2.61 3.01 1.27 2008 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.25 37.56 25.78 61.21 11.19 9.20 0.00 2009 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.06 11.22 3.19 8.11 0.00 2010 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.81 2.30 37.02 88.50 24.57 7.29 0.00 2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.88 7.21 27.58 54.20 31.69 3.75 0.00 2012 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.36 6.84 0.00 36.04 56.89 28.50 0.00 0.00 2013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.38 5.05 2.20 16.06 5.43 3.47 1.53 2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.95 13.44 16.56 29.78 0.00 0.00 2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.12 1.07 1.13 15.83 12.31 26.58 3.65 0.00 2016 4.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.56 2.11 0.00 28.81 27.28 71.28 7.03 0.00 2017 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.40 4.20 38.20 174.10 18.80 1.70 0.00 2018 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 12.20 2.90 72.80 42.90 0.00 0.00 2019 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 3.50 16.4 93.4 12.6 5.90 0.00

Here is an updated look at the Atlantic in the current La Nina v. the last 10. Someone had suggested I use the OISST database. Will be curious to see how August looks. You can see how cold the Tropical Atlantic is to the prior 10 La Nina Julys. We're definitely nearing the cold-AMO. The IOD actually stands out quite a bit too. The real question is...what the hell is this map doing with colored anomalies over land?

Some thoughts about the winter. I don't have a winter blend yet. But I'm fairly certain in the specific stuff I outlined above the actual years. Very Early / General Winter Idea for New Mexico 2022-23 Important Features: "Volcanic Winter", with extra moisture in the sky. "Dead Hurricane Season" Winter for N-Hemisphere La Nina that fades fast into Neutral or El Nino in Jan-Mar High Solar Activity Less Important Features / Indicators of Heat/Moisture Budget Allocation: Heavy SW US August Rains (favored in high solar) Heavy SW US June Rains (weak SW ridging winter indicator) Early SW US heat that faded later Summer (EPO indicator) High Sea Ice Extent in Aug-Sept (favored cold AMO) What It Means: - Extremely wet periods (SW US) are likely in Fall and/or Spring in volcanic periods. - Few to no major hurricane days are highly correlated to wetter winters SW US in La Nina. - Dead hurricane seasons are correlated to savage cold SW US in mid-Dec to mid-Jan. - Early heat (90F before 5/15 in ABQ) favors a cold winter almost always (via EPO look?). - High solar favors heavy rain/snow in March in the SW US. - Heavy rain in June in cold-ENSO favors frequent snows (typically 5 months v. normal Nina of 2-3). - Heavy rain in August, especially if coupled with October favors heavy precip March, heavy snow March, and high SW US seasonal snow totals generally. - La Nina falling apart in Jan-Apr would favor a warm SW US Feb-Mar, with a cool late Spring. - Dead NW Pacific hurricane season generally favors major winter +WPO looks. - Active monsoon often favors wet/cold/snowy Western US Decembers. - Eastern US has generally been cold in cold-ENSO with high(er) min sea ice extent since 2007. Mid-Jan to Mid-Feb? - Northeast US generally sees less snow in low-ACE La Nina, effect is strongest by Philadelphia Candidates for SW US Extreme Wetness Based on Matching Observations: - NM: September, October, December, March, May. Unlikely: Nov, Jan, Apr. - Best guesses for ABQ snow: October, December, January, February, March. Unlikely: Nov (-WPO / cold SE?) - Favored for heavy ABQ snow: mid-Dec to mid-Jan, March. Overall Look - something like 1959-60 (+QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, active monsoon, high solar) 1984-85 (=QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, volcanic, followed La, active monsoon, low sun, high ice) 1996-97 (-QBO, cold ENSO, active monsoon/hurricane season, followed La Nina, turns into El Nino early, low sun) 2011-12 (-QBO, cold ENSO, active hurricane season, followed La Nina, near El Nino mid-2012, high solar, dead mons) 2013-14 (+QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, active monsoon, turned to El Nino, high solar, high sea ice) 2020-21 (+QBO, cold ENSO, active hurricane season, poor monsoon, low solar, followed El Nino) -2004-05(+QBO, warm ENSO, after warm ENSO, big hurricane season, turns to La, med solar) 2022-23 (+QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, volcanic, active monsoon, high sun, follows La, high sea ice) Possible Substitutions 1954-55 (-QBO, cold ENSO, avg hurricane season, followed El Nino, weak monsoon, low sun) 1971-72 (+QBO, cold ENSO, avg hurricane season, followed La Nina) 1974-75 (+QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, volcanic, followed La Nina, active monsoon, low sun) 1978-79 (+QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season) 1983-84 (-QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, follows El, volcanic) 2016-17 (+QBO, ~cold ENSO, active hurricane season, follows El, weak monsoon) Best objective matches - US pretty cold? Possible but likely will change. 1971-72, 1974-75 (x2), 1984-85 (x3), 2011-12, 2013-14, 2020-21, -2004-05

I'm treating Tonga as a N. Hem volcano because it erupted more greenhouse gasses than aerosols, since N Hem / S Hem volcanoes have opposite effects on the Northern Hemisphere hurricane seasons. So the big N. Hem volcanoes I know of are El Chicon (1982), with Volcan De Fuego debatable in 1932 and 1974. I don't think the 1932 eruption was big enough though - since 1933 was an insane hurricane season. The volcanic / dead La Nina hurricane seasons I'm looking at are really 1983-84, 1984-85, and 1985-86 (even though I don't consider it a La Nina, it's close enough). You won't find a match on all the factors you listed with how few major volcanic years there are. High solar is generally a monsoon enhancer globally. The top precipitation matches recently, on a national level have been these: You can see temps are similar to a similar set of years too. It's generally a dead La Nina / cold ENSO + volcanic blend.

Also, for what it's worth, no hurricane seasons with under 10 ACE total through 8/31 have blown up to hyper activity in at least the last 90 years. So the hurricane season is pretty likely to stay dead if nothing blows up in the next week. A lot of the dead seasons in La Ninas in the 1970s/1980s also followed volcanoes - you had a big eruption in Central America in Fall 1974 I'm pretty sure. The AMO is a bit over-rated as a hurricane indicator since the tropics are always warm, and what you really need is something to screw up pressure patterns. Statistically, hurricane activity through August v. the total of the season behaves something like ((August ACE) x (1.9)) + (47). So the entire range in 90 years is 0-120 ACE or something if the season stays under 10 ACE through 8/31, centered right around 50 ACE, with like a 90%+ chance of under 100. Super super dead for a La Nina.

The volcano that erupted earlier this year was an underwater event. So much of the emission material into the sky is water vapor. That's a known green house gas, with relatively little S04 emitted compared to similar sized eruptions like Pinatubo. The paper I linked in the ENSO thread on volcanic impacts to hurricane activity says that typically a Southern Hemisphere volcano moves the location of the Inter-Tropical-Convergence-Zone (ITCZ) and disrupts/enhances hurricane formation/intensity in some areas in both hemispheres. https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1900777116 In summary, tropical eruptions lead to a consistent decrease in environmental variables associated with the number and intensity of tropical cyclones over Southeast Asia, northwestern and northeastern Australia regardless of whether the eruption occurs in the NH or SH. In the other regions, TrNH and TrSH eruptions lead instead to opposing effects. In particular, the variables associated with number and intensity of TCs decrease in the North Atlantic after TrNH and increase following TrSH eruptions. But that paper assumes high aerosol emission - I've been working on the assumption that the water vapor delivered high up into the sky had the equivalent of an anti-aerosol outcome. In other words, normally a volcano in the Southern Hemisphere would enhance N-Hemisphere ACE/hurricane activity with the aerosols. But this volcano did the opposite. The "pseudo" El Nino response everyone is bitching about I think is actually the extra forcing from the heat added to the system by the volcano. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere In the study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer. That’s nearly four times the amount of water vapor that scientists estimate the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines lofted into the stratosphere. The extra water vapor / sudden forcing via extra heat is also consistent with the wildness of the Summer - drought/heat in Europe, China, the Central US, and then very active/wet monsoons in other places. I have a method for dealing with volcanic effects in my outlook, but this will be the first year I've had to test it. Should be a weird winter. There are a lot of weird things that happen after big volcanic eruptions.

https://lamont.columbia.edu/news/large-volcanic-eruptions-can-alter-hurricane-strength-and-frequency I have a whole bunch of papers I like on volcanism and weather patterns, but this one is probably the most relevant for the idiotic forecasts of hyperactivity this year following a VEI 5-6 eruption. Major volcanic eruptions in the tropics + ENSO have been studied for a while. https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1900777116

Cold ENSO, low ACE (<120 total), 2-3 inches of rain in Albuquerque in August (currently: 2.43"). The non-2011 years are also excellent precipitation matches. Wettest August here in 16 years - way overdue. The month is not particularly close to ending just yet though. My current analog finalists are something like this: Temps: 1959, 1970, 1971, 1983, 1984, 1985, 2011, 2020 (I still like 2004 as a good anti-log too for most periods) Precip: 1974, 1984, 1988, 1996, 2000, 2008, 2013, 2016 If you add 0.2C everywhere for the warming since 1996, where that blend is centered, you end up with a pretty close SST match actually. I suspect this is actually a pretty decent blend, but I'd like to see how September goes. Have some other contending blends too.

It's not a myth - people aren't outside at night. You're the type of person who spends all of your time on the internet aren't you? What makes you think there aren't others who do the same? The actual story of the Summer is the greening of the land as the drought recedes. You can pretend that's less important than your bizarre obsession with irrelevant levels of heat, but it's still complete horseshit, no matter how you spin it.

A lot of the looks I get look like this - I wouldn't call it horrible for your region. A bit warm, but not too bad for snow. That warm spot everyone obsesses over in the NE Pacific south of Alaska has been cooling a lot lately. With anti-2004-05 in there, I tend to get 30-35 inches of snow for Logan in similar setups. (I do the anomaly of 2004-05 in a given spot, and flip it, and then include the flipped value in the average. So instead of +45 inches of snow, it's -45, and lowers your total).

To me, this is only possible with weaknesses in the subtropical ridge. These are astounding totals for here in two months. The old Don Sutherland curse.

One thing that is lost about 2011 is you did have a big volcanic eruption that year. It's an Iceland volcano though, that's why I'm quite sure it won't really be a good analog overall by winter. The volcano earlier this year supposedly put an enormous amount of water vapor into the upper atmosphere, but not too much aerosol / S04 material. It's only a fraction of the cooling effect that Pinatubo had, and likely more regional. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011–2012_Puyehue-Cordón_Caulle_eruption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Chichón The blend I listed is actually quite remarkable in that it is the three most recent La Ninas following major volcanoes. As far as 2013-14 goes, I don't consider it a La Nina. All the ACE stuff I've listed only works in La Ninas. The years like 2013-14 that never quite drop to 26.0C in Nino 3.4, but get close for a month or two, often act like La Ninas at times, but not always. At the subsurface, February 2014 was already close to an El Nino anyway (+0.39). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt No hurricane through August 21 would knock out a bunch more active years. Leaves just 1942, 1983, 1984, 1988 since 1930 La Ninas. My position with ACE has always been that it is an indicator of strength in the subtropical ridge. When the ridge is weak in Summer, the Gulf gets nuked, and then the Southwest is hot/dry in Winter with the stronger ridge forming to the West. The more extreme ACE seasons will even see the NW quite warm (1933-34) fairly often. When the ridge is strong in Summer, the Gulf is hot/dry (look at TX this Summer), and the SW benefits from the weakness in winter (go look at who managed to have a cold winter in the very warm 2011-12)

The strong monsoon this year has really helped mitigate drought conditions in parts of the West this Summer. Most of my research implies a pretty widespread wet winter for 2022-23 nationally even though another La Nina winter is likely. The NE Pacific activity with the dead Atlantic, following a major volcanic eruption reminds me of the 1980s La Ninas, especially 1984-85 which had the big monsoon.

This is my little visual for the low ACE / late or no-hurricane La Ninas. You can see that the recent La Ninas with no hurricane yet have behave similarly in August. Look at the 1983, 1984, 2011 blend. The 1983/1984/2011 blend is 76 ACE. Would be a pretty interesting winter - although I doubt the blend will hold. It is a much more widespread wet winter than last year, with the NE generally warm, which are both things I expect.

Still a long way to go, but I think it's increasingly probable that this winter will have an unusual temperature layout compared to most winters in the past 20 years. A lot of the years I like have most of the US "weakly" cold, but with the Northeast relatively warmer than the Southeast (i.e. near-average to cold SE US, warm-average NE US). For the cold US outside the NE look to win out, I do think the Atlantic needs to remain under 100-120 ACE for the year. But right now, that's looking fairly likely (mean ACE for no hurricanes by 8/16 is either 93 or 113 when I looked). Sort of an anti-2004 look, which is a consider a strong Anti-Log (high ACE in an El Nino following an ~El Nino, with 2002-2004 as a very wet period in the SW US and high solar activity, with 2020-2022 very dry and low solar, etc).

The "Don Sutherland" curse as I like to call it. Yes, it's 1-2 degrees above average this Summer in the Southwest. But isn't Death Valley getting 75% of its rain in a year in three hours a lot more interesting? Hurricane season remains pretty dead in the Atlantic. Actually, the Northwest Pacific is remarkably dead too. I've not looked in detail, but I suspect the dead NW Pacific is correlated to strong WPO years, I vaguely remember it being very dead in 2020 too. The low-ACE Atlantic years seem to be like a SE-ward shift of the +WPO/+AO/+NAO/+PNA look you can occasionally get with cold ENSO winters.

We just clinched a wet monsoon in Albuquerque, with 6+ weeks to spare in the season. Now the 6th wettest 6/15-8/9 in the past 100 years locally. Just had ~an inch of rain in an hour officially - equivalent of 1/9th of our annual precipitation in an hour. August tends to be wetter than July locally in high solar years, even though the months average the same amount of rain long-term. It's interesting to see that play out so well this year. 1996 remains an interesting comparison locally, especially since it transitioned to a dead La Nina quite quickly as the Jamstec and CFS show. 1996 0.17 0.19 0.02 0.00 0.02 2.86 1.03 1.54 1.45 1.52 0.95 0.00 9.75 2022 0.03 0.27 0.55 0.00 0.00 2.38 1.01 1.01+ tbd tbd tbd tbd 4.29 I'm still expecting a pretty healthy La Nina peak in Oct-Nov, and then a pretty rapid decline through February. Those tend to be good years in the Southwest because the La Nina, while present is warming throughout winter like a developing El Nino. 2020-21 featured that, with a cold December, a lot of snow, and then a pretty cold Oct/Feb too. August also looks like it is breaking away from 2011 as a good match to US weather as I've expected, but it is fairly similar already to August 2020 for temperatures. July PDO also came in at -2.86 - extremely low via Nate Mantua to my email. Super -PDO is a weak warm signal for the South. I suspect it will actually be very cold where I am for at least a week in December, but we'll see.

The dumbest thing about these threads is that they never mention moisture. Our wettest Summers always prevent lows from collapsing overnight, and so they tend to not ever be super cold, even if the rain is excessive and frequent. Average temperature in the SW behaves like a pyramid, with the heat apex and cool morning low floor occurring often as a single 5 minute period, rather than places like New York or Chicago where temperature values are much more curved rather than triangle like at the floor and peaks. If you actually spent a moment outside you would know this. Warming the lowest daily temperature that occurs five minutes a day by five degrees and then bitching about global warming in that area in comparison to New York or Chicago where the lowest low and highest high of the day occur for hours is always going to make it seem like things are way worse out here than they really are. If you were to measure lows an hour after sunrise globally and use that as the low, I'd imagine you'd have far less global warming in the deserts of the world than the ocean driven climates like the Northeast. The giant purple area for a 60 period never seems to get any attention even though it's way more impressive than some ****ing +2 anomaly in a period of global warming. The danger of the heat in the Southwest to people is always during the day, and Phoenix is not particularly close to record heat in that sense, even though it's much warmer with the lows included. It's a 107F v. 105.5F median thing for 2022 v. the 1931-2021 median for the 6/9-8/7 period, and the lows, while annoying, are not actually dangerous to humans directly.

My objective local top matches by month for precipitation and highs locally have some absolutely savage cold shots into the Southwest. Check out the days from Nov-Feb that are at least 10F below average in (). If you use 1938 as an example, the 25 severe cold days are -15 average departures say, for 25/120 days. So it needs to be like +4 all the remaining days just to hit average temperatures. January to July 1938-39 (25), 1943-44 (19), 1984-85 (16), 1996-97 (12), 2000-01 (13), 2020-21 (8) are objective best non-El Nino matches for 2022. I think 1970-71, which has the mother of Southwest cold snaps also showed up in the top six La Nina matches, mainly for how similar its precipitation pattern is, it's not too close for temperatures. Pretty sure 1996 was the top precipitation match, although we had 9 inches of snow here in Feb-Mar in 2022, basically all the precipitation that fell was snow not rain those months. 1996 0.17 0.19 0.02 0.00 0.02 2.86 1.03 1.54 1.45 1.52 0.95 0.00 1970 0.00 0.27 0.42 0.05 0.33 0.40 1.22 2.24 0.79 0.25 0.08 0.23 2022 0.03 0.27 0.55 0.00 0.00 2.38 1.01 tbd.. tbd.. tbd.. tbd.. tbd.. Have not seen 1970 as a match on this type of test since I've observed weather locally. January 1971 isn't even below average really locally for highs. But that -17F is the coldest it's been in Albuquerque on record, since at least January 1892. Not sure how I'd feel about a January with close to 90 degrees in temperature variation. Last year, my top local match for Jan-Sept on temps and precip was 1950, which ended up being a decent match nationally to the pattern (very hot/dry SW, until a severely cold Feb too). 1971-01-01 52 19 35.5 -0.5 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-02 46 23 34.5 -1.5 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-03 33 11 22.0 -14.1 43 0 0.26 3.0 1 1971-01-04 13 -4 4.5 -31.7 60 0 0.01 T 3 1971-01-05 8 -15 -3.5 -39.7 68 0 0.00 0.0 1 1971-01-06 6 -12 -3.0 -39.3 68 0 0.00 0.0 1 1971-01-07 10 -17 -3.5 -39.9 68 0 0.00 0.0 1 1971-01-08 22 -8 7.0 -29.5 58 0 0.00 0.0 1 1971-01-09 34 2 18.0 -18.6 47 0 0.00 0.0 1 1971-01-10 44 16 30.0 -6.7 35 0 0.00 0.0 1 1971-01-11 45 17 31.0 -5.8 34 0 0.00 0.0 T 1971-01-12 52 23 37.5 0.6 27 0 0.00 0.0 T 1971-01-13 52 25 38.5 1.5 26 0 0.00 0.0 T 1971-01-14 50 24 37.0 -0.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-15 52 21 36.5 -0.7 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-16 57 22 39.5 2.2 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-17 56 29 42.5 5.1 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-18 64 33 48.5 11.0 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-19 60 29 44.5 6.8 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-20 63 29 46.0 8.2 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-21 68 40 54.0 16.1 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-22 59 30 44.5 6.5 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-23 56 21 38.5 0.4 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-24 51 19 35.0 -3.3 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-25 58 21 39.5 1.1 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-26 64 27 45.5 7.0 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-27 61 23 42.0 3.3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-28 60 34 47.0 8.2 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-29 63 29 46.0 7.1 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-30 65 34 49.5 10.4 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 1971-01-31 69 42 55.5 16.3 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 May-July nationally was a very good match to 2011/2020 as a blend for temperatures. But it's much closer to 2020, with the WPO sign flipped at the upper levels globally even though 2011 is better for the US. 2020/2011 as a blend would be a nice December for me.

I tested objective matching highs to 2022 for 42 cities in the US for each month from January to July. Most-frequent best matches included 2020, 2011, 2000, 1959 among the non-El Ninos. In a lot of ways, 1959 is like a blend of 2020 and 2013 so it's interesting to see that year pop up. Both 1959 / 2020 are very hot Decembers nationally, with -QBO early year, and a flip to +QBO in July, as we just observed. The QBO in 1959 was around -20 like this year in January. For Nino 3.4, the objective best match year to date is 1985 for Jan-Jul. A lot of years that were close early have faded lately. Nino 3.4, in a historical sense still isn't super cold - it's ~18th coldest since 1950. So if La Nina is the coldest 30%, July was in the coldest 25th%. The years within 0.2C of Nino 3.4 in July average ~25.9C in winter. (-0.6C for my purposes in winter, -0.8C against the baseline CPC uses). Composite for La Nina with no Atlantic hurricanes by August 6th is about 10 years since 1930 if I remember correctly. It's a mild NW / hot SE look that trends both more extreme the later you get without a hurricane. If you make it to 9/1 without a hurricane in the Atlantic, the only matching La Ninas are 1984 and 1988. A lot of big, late-blooming hurricane seasons in La Nina start by 8/16 - so if we make it to 8/16 without a hurricane, that's a pretty good sign for a cold Northwest winter. The warm AMO / inactive La Nina hurricane seasons (<120 ACE) are something like 1938, 1942, 1954, 2000, 2007 - not super common.

A lot of the data mining I do points to a winter of frequent light snows, that eventually gets to about average totals for New Mexico and parts of Colorado. I just ran a difference of proportions test, and heavy rain in June in Albuquerque ahead of a cold ENSO seems to meaningfully (p<0.005) enhance the odds of snow in October. We've got 11 Octobers with snow here in 92 years. But four of them followed an inch of rain in June, with cold ENSO in winter, v. only seven in the remaining 81 years. 1933 is the worst hurricane season on record in the Atlantic, so if you throw that out, as it is strongly negatively correlated to rain/snow/cold in the Southwest, it's actually a pretty solid list for snow for cold ENSO.

As far as what the Canadian shows, it seems to think we're going to a blend of 2013-14, 2016-17, 2020-21, 2021-22. Verbatim, it shows essentially 2013-14 (x4), 2016-17 (x3), 2020-21 (x2), 2021-22. The blend is like a B+ match for the IOD/AMO/PDO/ENSO (~26.0C DJF for Nino 3.4) look and also like a C+ match for my solar/ace targets. Solar(61) /Atlantic ACE (107), NE Pacific ACE (110). I'd guess 100 / 100 / 150 at this point. The La Ninas without a hurricane by this point average ~115 ACE or so historically. I do expect a pretty healthy La Nina in the fall that is pretty dead by February, so even though this event should get down to 25.5-26.0 in the Fall, I doubt it will be much below average by late February. So I currently expect a weaker DJF than what the Canadian has. You'll likely see the big cold push peak at least initially in Sept/Oct and then flat-line briefly before decaying. I've already started my winter outlook, and plan to have it out by 10/10 again. Last year I correctly identified the cold snap in NM/TX in Feb 2022 as early as mid-September, so I'll likely have at least some stuff right by October.

I don't think we'll be similar at all to the early 2010s cold-ENSO winters (10-11, 11-12, 12-13) frankly. You can see the Indian Ocean is completely different from 2011-12. Those Summers, 2011, 2012 they had some special features nationally - lot of mesoscale / derecho stuff, and a lot of east coast tropical stuff, with extraordinary heat and dryness in the Southwest, feeding the latter two. You certainly don't have the dryness and heat here this year, we're running exactly average for 90 degree days where I am against the past 100 years. The year with late October weirdness like 1992 / 2012 usually have the MJO in similar spots by now. Actually - July was quite dissimilar to the most recent coldest December years in the East. 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2013 are probably the five coldest since 1990. 2005 is closest to July, but the "heat hole" that month was right where it was hottest in 2022 which is consistent with my ACE idea - that it indicates where the subtropical highs set up the strongest. You had weakness in the highs in 2005, and so later on those areas got slaughtered with Katrina, Rita, Wilma, etc, and then the weakness persisted into winter, with the core high pressure over the SW. I actually think this winter may be remarkably wet as a defining feature. It should be fascinating to see how the hurricane seasons play out too - the East Pacific is pretty active for La Nina too. We're already close to a lock without an Atlantic hurricane through 8/4, or a major hurricane through 8/4 or 8/5. Last year without an Atlantic hurricane by August was 2017 - but I doubt we will see 175 ACE in September like in 2017. East Pacific hurricane activity is fairly correlated (mostly because it's higher in +ENSO) with more active subtropical jet activity in winter. ~La Nina (actual or near), +Active East Pacific ACE (>133) since 1971. Currently running 70%+ above average in the East Pacific. Already near total ACE last year in that basin, when it was quite quiet. Composite below is like ~188 ACE, rare in cold ENSO. 1971-72 (139), 1978-79 (208), 1983-84 (206), 1984-85 (194), 1985-86 (193), 2016-17 (185) Last year for comparison (2021, 94 ACE)

Canadian has a weaker, more basin La Nina for winter than last month. Pretty cold in the tropics globally too.