raindancewx

I'm actually fairly bullish on this region for snow this winter - but I still have you guys pretty warm. I put out my forecast for anyone curious. I think the elevation could really help in Nov and Mar when some relatively powerful/cold systems come through as snow producers. https://www.scribd.com/document/599203054/2022-23-Winter-Outlook

I've been encouraged to make a Youtube video of my forecast on Twitter. Before I do that, is there anything anyone would like elaboration or clarification on? I tried to be much more brief with more pictures this year.

Not a bad call on my end from June - I'm sure everyone else expected near record early October rains in the Southwest in a La Nina right? Especially with a lot more coming still? I've been very busy lately, but I did upload my winter forecast today if anyone is curious. https://t.co/2IM4n7Vt5J

https://www.scribd.com/document/599203054/2022-23-Winter-Outlook Some notes: - Low ACE in August in the Atlantic for 1950-2021 is meaningfully correlated to +AO, and +WPO conditions in December. This "look" is relatively common in El Nino, but it looks like you'd expect in cold-ENSO years too. - ACE in the Atlantic is behaving similarly to the 1988 hurricane season. Both very inactive through August, blew up to 75 ACE or so in September. Then a Julia like hurricane in mid-October 1988. - Strong signals locally in the West for an active/stormy March - probably not that cold though. Wet storms getting stuck over the Southwest like in October - this should show up again several times. - Low ACE is strongly correlated to more "cold" and "very cold" highs in Albuquerque during La Nina. - Much wetter winter than last year. I didn't see a signal for huge snow anywhere - I had the coldest areas looking dry, and the wettest areas looking warm. I do think the Midwest will do well for snow in the off-season - November & March. Any big systems for the NE US are likely late January-late February - just a guess though. - For NE US snows, look at October 2011 - we're not that far off from that look right now. MJO timing / Indonesian warmth still look wrong to me for major eastern US cold in December, although it may try late month at the very end. More at the link

It's no meltdown. You literally said you were fairly confident in a warm Neutral as late as 6/16. It's wonderful that you finally realized that conditions colder than last year for almost half a year weren't going to result in an El Nino I guess. 2021 25.55 25.75 26.48 27.10 27.47 27.45 26.90 26.32 26.17 25.77 25.76 25.54 2022 25.59 25.85 26.30 26.70 26.81 26.97 26.59 25.89 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 I've yet to see anything of value from you my entire time here. I sure as hell don't read your blog.

As promised.

Some quick thoughts: - The 1988 hurricane season in the Atlantic, after a slow start, had a cat 4, a cat 5 in September...and then one more cat 4 in October. ACE has been very similar to that year, even though storm paths and sensible weather are quite different. But my point is that that year finished around 100 for the season. My estimate for the season was 50-100, and I was expecting around 80 - but 100 is probably pretty realistic at this point. - Locally, there really aren't many bad "snow" years following over 5.5 inches of rain in Albuquerque, and that holds true in the high terrain spots that average 100-400 inches of snow from what I can see too. It's not really something that changes with ENSO either. The general signal for weaker La Nina snow is much weaker following wet Summers. 1963 is going to finish as the objective best match for Jan-Sept highs and precipitation locally. It's not a bad match for Sep nationally, and it followed a volcanic eruption. Check out 10/1963 and 10/2022 on the CFS. My analogs stay pretty warm in the Fall in Nov, as 1963 does. Will be very interesting to see if that holds, as 1963 is an El Nino. But it's also the "single most extreme" month down here since 1892 - February 1964 is 13.5F below the long-term average high, which I don't buy.

I mean...honest to god this is the stuff that aggravates me. Everyone is wrong, but you claim to be right now matter how perfectly opposite you get things. That's the only thing that consistently pisses me off - the dishonesty of it all. You were dead sure even into May, even June of an El Nino this year weren't you? Even with all of the giant flashing lights showing the opposite? I had January warm last year - but I've never once claimed it was some kind of amazing call, I was dead wrong. It is interesting that no one chimed in to suggest you had original ideas though isn't it? I do genuinely think you're an idiot, but that's not the reason I get angry. I do find it funny when people with 50,000-100,000 posts on a weather forum claim I'm the one who is socially inept. Most of you literally don't have anything better to do than this stuff? Really? Do you just not value face to face interactions or what? It's hard to think of a bigger waste of time than posting here excessively. Whether you're perfect or a moron, the weather does what the weather does. I'm actually getting pretty bored with all of this stuff. Going to delete all of my stuff in a few years once I retire permanently. I realized a few months that even though I'm already in the ~top 5% of wealth by American standards, I could really live like a king in Mexico - so I've been rummaging around that country looking for fun places to live and buy properties for much of the past year. Once I've finished my exploration of the 32 states in a few years, I'll pick five or six spots to buy buildings, and you all can go back to predicting severe cold/snow every winter without a peep from me.

I've decided on a blend of six analogs and three anti-logs for this winter. For the anti-logs, the plan is to use 1995-96 and 2004-05, and one other I'll leave a mystery for now. Both are relatively low solar, high ACE, and they have pretty opposite temp/precip patterns. The anti-logs also fix some of the issues with the analogs. The 1995-96 and 2004-05 structures both favor warmth West / Coolness east by the equator in a relative sense, which is opposite what the models have been showing. They're also very cold off the East Coast, Japan, and Indonesia, all opposite now, and likely opposite for winter. Some high ACE years - a cold / warm ring in the West basically in the same place but sign flipped. Sign flip again in winter? We'll see. But I've got my winter blend.

The last four Februaries have all been near-average to cold here. A lot of the correlations I use have r-squared values over 0.4, and they work when I hindcast in random years in the 1890s-1930s. I actually don't think I have any direct correlations for ABQ in February though. My ACE stuff works much better for mid-Dec to mid-Jan, not that you ever read or remember anything people tell you. I wish you'd come up with an original idea once in a while instead of just copying everyone you follow.

None of the cold-ENSO events in the past decade have been particularly strong in the winter at the surface. We've not had a winter finish 25.50C or colder since 2010-11. Think about that - it's coming up on 12 years. It's been ages since anything has been below 25.0C for DJF - although 2007-08 was close. These are not impressive events by historical standards, something like 50-70% of all La Ninas (<26C in DJF) in the past 100 years have been colder in winter than the recent years. Most of you don't actually look at the temperatures, you look at the anomalies, so it never comes up that 2011-12 and 1995-96 are almost the same by actual temps (~25.75C DJF), because CPC uses warming baselines for newer events. That's why I look at stuff like ACE to distinguish between the La Nina behavior, 1995 is a super-ACE year, and those are all pretty hot in the West and tend to be stormy east. 1995 27.57 27.49 27.75 28.10 27.82 27.59 27.08 26.23 25.88 25.84 25.60 25.65 1996 25.69 25.89 26.67 27.35 27.55 27.29 26.85 26.64 26.27 26.27 26.29 25.95 2011 25.00 25.64 26.36 27.05 27.41 27.35 26.87 26.21 25.92 25.67 25.52 25.54 2012 25.67 26.08 26.67 27.32 27.61 27.75 27.54 27.32 27.10 26.98 26.86 26.34 The long-term baseline is 26.50C in Dec-Feb in Nino 3.4. I know it's been colder relatively in Fall/Spring, but the real impact is getting those waters right at the equator well below the normal ~80 degrees. It doesn't really matter that much if the waters are ~1C below average but still ~80F in the Fall/Spring off-season like we saw this Spring. I personally don't care at all about ENSO strength outside the winter. It's actually not really that relevant in winter either. I mostly look at strength to match on the y/y trends, which have far more predictive power. My ideal for this winter would be for it to be much warmer than last year in Nino 3.4, which favors colder here (warming trend y/y), and then an El Nino next year. That'd be two good winters in a row out here, following a decent run lately, with 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22 all seeing pretty good snows locally (I've had accumulating snow at my place every month from October to April in the past four winters, including close to two feet outside Dec-Feb, with ~9.5" in October 2020, ~4.5" in March 2022, ~8.5" in Nov 2019. Nearly snowed September 2020 too, with flurries in April 2020). My research indicates that years during the AMO transition disfavor heavy snows in the Southwest in Dec/Jan, and favor "off-season" snow, so I do think we're getting close to the cold-AMO flip mid-decade to 2030. These fluky off-season snows show up a lot every 60-70 years if you look back through newspaper accounts (lots of very early season / very late SW US / Mexico snow in the 1960s, 1890s, 1830s, 1770s, etc). The peak of it will probably be something like the Mexico blizzard of January 1967.

Last year's event spent over a month below -1.2 in the 100-180W zone, from 0-300m down. Much milder cold looks like a lock at this point. Might already be tailing off or weakening - we'll see next week. There are quite a few events historically that peak Fall rather than around December, before weakening. Each substantial warm up below the surface has corresponded in near-real time to a cold and/or wet/snowy period here, with the super-cold Februaries, cold & wet June this year, and so on. I'd expect a rapid increase below the surface - should it happen in Oct/Nov would correspond to an immediate cold / stormy period in the SW in Nov or Dec. The hurricane season stuff I look at implies a very cold mid-Dec to mid-Jan period locally though - unless it blows it up a lot real soon. September is at maybe ~10 ACE, with month 1/6 over. The 1991-2020 half-way point of the season is 9/12, so any quiet period after the current relative storminess will make it very hard to catch up with average totals.

Subsurface 100-180W for 2022: June: +0.31 July: -0.46 August: -0.96 Last year was almost identical (+0.31 / -0.40 / -0.83) Doubt it will hold though. I've already laid out my position on that volcano like four times. It's an unusual eruption because it was a net exporter of green house gasses, not aerosols. Net aerosol eruptions in the southern hemisphere traditionally enhance N-Hem hurricane activity according to the paper I linked. We've seen the opposite effect, more akin to an N-hem aerosol emitting volcano. I don't have a blend for winter, but the flaws of 1984/2012 as analogs actually cancel out pretty well. Pretty sure I'm going to use those two years in conjunction with at least three others. For temperatures, 2011 was a good match nationally from April to July. But it's been quite terrible now for precipitation for several months - very wet in the Northeast where it has been very dry, and it was very dry in the West, where it has been very wet. The 1984/2012 blend is the simplest combo I can think of that's "OK" for both temps and precip in Summer. I'm pretty tempted to do something like this for the winter. But I'm still testing for now. 1959-60 (x2), 1984-85 (x2), 2012-13 (x2), 2013-14, 2016-17, -2004-05 (x2) That's a pretty wet winter, with severe cold at times, but it wouldn't be concentrated in one region/month. It would move around a lot, especially if the La Nina collapses late. I think you guys in the NE would still be warm in December, but not in February. The map doesn't show it, but I doubled -2004-05 It's ~relatively there for SSTs. Indian Ocean Dipole is right, the Atlantic is warm by the East Coast. La Nina is fairly intense but centered West, and it would collapse quickly late with those years. The current warm spot in the NE Pacific has been weakening too. (For -2004, I do actual ACE - mean ACE = +104, and then mean ACE - 104 to flip it) ACE: 1959-60 (77), 1984-85 (84), 2012-13 (133), 2013 (36), 2016 (141), -2004 (19) = 80 ACE QBO: should be net positive in the blend for winter. ENSO order: should be negative with 2004 flipped (if 2004 followed a +0.5C event, I'd count it as a -0.5C event)

Looks like we made it. August finished up as an extremely close match to 1970. Some kind of blend of 1970, 1971, 1984, 1996, 2020 works well. January 1971 featured near-all time record heat and all-time record cold in the Southwest and shows up as a warm month. Locally...we had highs near 70 and lows near -20 in the same month in ABQ. I know people say "La Nina = -PNA" or whatever, but those correlations don't exist in Summer if you look on the CPC correlations by time page. Correlation in Summer for the PNA is near 0. The variable CPC lists as "Solar" has near double the correlation to the PNA as Nino 3.4 in August...I doubt anyone here believes sunspots control the PNA in August? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_aug.txt

'Dead August' v. 'Non-Dead-August' September activity doesn't quite pass a difference in proportion test at the 5% level. Can't reject the notion that September has the same long-term activity following very low August activity. But it's really close. The p-value was 0.06, and you'd reject the "no difference from a dead idea" if it had been 0.05. https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Hurricane/hurr.atl.ace.data 1851-2019 ACE by month for anyone interested. August ACE 0-10: 70 instances since 1851. September ACE over 50, following 0-10 ACE August: 17/70 (53/70 under 50) September ACE over 100, following 0-10 August: 1/70 (69/70 under 100) All Septembers >50 ACE 52/169 September following the non-Dead Augusts: 35/99 (36%) Septembers >50 ACE September following the dead-Augusts: 17/70 (24%) Septembers >50 ACE ACE is sustained winds in knots squared divided by 10,000, as measured every six hours. So odds are pretty against more than ~12 days with a 100 kt hurricane. 1851 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.91 0.89 21.83 4.00 4.61 0.00 0.00 1852 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.36 31.24 15.68 0.00 0.00 1853 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.27 63.90 10.32 0.00 0.00 1854 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.90 0.00 0.36 23.08 3.66 0.00 0.00 1855 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.86 7.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 1856 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 38.40 10.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 1857 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 44.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 1858 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.00 0.49 32.41 11.40 0.00 0.00 1859 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 9.72 13.54 31.66 0.00 0.00 1860 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.40 22.74 16.92 0.00 0.00 1861 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.76 24.67 2.69 5.57 4.02 0.00 1862 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 10.02 23.44 5.15 4.42 0.00 1863 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.35 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1864 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.72 11.76 4.41 4.66 0.00 0.00 1865 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.00 6.10 27.83 14.70 0.00 0.00 1866 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.29 13.97 34.79 20.60 0.00 0.00 1867 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.04 8.74 10.49 9.95 27.75 0.00 0.00 1868 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.00 23.65 0.00 0.00 1869 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.58 35.70 4.74 0.00 0.00 1870 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 2.70 36.98 43.28 4.35 0.00 1871 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.74 0.00 52.86 13.46 16.33 0.00 0.00 1872 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.28 23.50 23.62 14.98 0.00 0.00 1873 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.96 0.00 33.36 16.23 18.92 0.00 0.00 1874 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.80 10.34 26.04 0.82 7.05 0.00 1875 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.84 48.28 16.36 0.00 0.00 1876 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.67 33.38 0.00 0.00 1877 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.11 50.61 16.00 1.64 0.00 1878 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.76 31.47 50.78 87.80 7.40 1.64 1879 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 35.72 5.21 17.38 5.32 0.00 1880 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.56 0.00 60.14 27.55 40.83 0.00 0.00 1881 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 44.28 14.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 1882 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.45 35.76 21.26 0.00 0.00 1883 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.11 28.31 2.28 0.00 0.00 1884 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 51.77 20.29 0.00 0.00 1885 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.69 24.30 5.31 0.00 0.00 1886 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.58 15.40 70.95 36.33 22.90 0.00 0.00 1887 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.28 1.10 20.51 54.31 39.45 38.80 4.85 14.95 1888 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.56 1.52 20.83 27.64 7.78 24.61 0.00 1889 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.93 5.30 0.00 12.42 72.93 7.48 0.00 0.00 1890 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.24 0.00 0.00 26.91 2.21 2.56 0.43 0.00 1891 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.34 39.47 37.22 29.53 2.55 0.00 1892 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.39 0.00 8.35 62.09 40.00 0.00 0.00 1893 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.31 5.60 119.66 22.95 67.47 5.16 0.00 1894 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.96 0.00 4.30 53.10 76.06 0.00 0.00 1895 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.33 1.59 43.84 0.00 0.00 1896 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.72 3.60 77.90 22.46 24.40 0.00 1897 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 37.60 16.57 0.00 0.00 1898 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.25 77.05 29.15 2.78 0.00 1899 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 3.77 78.50 48.63 17.37 2.27 0.00 1900 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.08 73.72 6.54 0.00 0.00 1901 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.98 20.30 20.86 42.97 7.31 6.56 0.00 1902 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.66 0.00 0.00 8.91 12.52 4.56 0.00 1903 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.89 28.95 30.54 24.23 12.46 0.00 1904 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.89 0.00 0.00 11.35 14.40 1.70 0.00 1905 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.81 19.57 0.00 0.00 1906 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.15 0.00 12.84 94.61 33.27 4.02 0.00 1907 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.77 0.00 0.00 3.36 2.03 3.91 0.00 1908 0.00 0.00 5.84 0.00 6.04 0.00 9.81 3.89 45.53 24.00 0.00 0.00 1909 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.85 9.78 26.89 19.67 17.21 9.94 0.00 1910 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.58 33.27 29.05 0.00 0.00 1911 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.72 13.82 3.12 0.00 0.00 1912 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.22 2.23 0.00 8.90 17.30 20.61 0.00 1913 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.94 0.00 5.96 17.20 6.50 0.00 0.00 1914 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 1915 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 47.21 82.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 1916 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.46 0.00 38.78 32.76 31.33 36.24 3.44 0.00 1917 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.53 6.59 52.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 1918 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.96 18.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 1919 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.97 0.00 49.28 0.28 3.52 0.00 1920 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 29.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 1921 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.71 0.00 0.00 46.22 29.36 2.24 0.00 1922 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 0.00 0.00 39.65 14.05 0.00 0.00 1923 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.79 0.00 0.00 34.10 13.43 0.00 0.00 1924 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.61 1.95 37.83 18.95 29.89 9.95 0.00 1925 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.15 0.97 0.00 1.83 0.30 1926 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.39 36.97 132.18 36.54 1.47 0.00 1927 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.55 28.09 3.81 3.04 0.00 1928 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.49 55.32 8.66 0.00 0.00 1929 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.20 0.00 0.00 33.54 10.32 0.00 0.00 1930 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.43 27.90 2.44 0.00 0.00 1931 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.25 2.55 6.55 27.24 2.09 7.16 0.00 1932 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.34 0.00 0.00 11.89 71.22 11.24 70.98 0.00 1933 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.08 9.78 35.81 64.35 111.33 28.21 6.01 0.00 1934 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.55 9.07 8.48 16.71 10.05 15.21 0.00 1935 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.75 0.00 0.00 26.75 46.11 13.36 18.24 0.00 1936 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.17 7.03 24.35 58.05 0.74 0.00 2.43 1937 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.14 8.60 51.03 4.07 0.00 0.00 1938 4.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.83 41.53 5.25 2.77 0.00 1939 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.32 0.00 9.26 2.35 20.41 7.35 0.00 1940 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.69 0.00 0.00 24.57 32.51 6.02 0.00 0.00 1941 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.22 15.55 0.00 0.00 1942 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.05 9.91 7.04 9.48 0.00 1943 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.75 29.10 39.58 19.58 0.00 0.00 1944 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.32 24.75 36.72 29.49 2.17 0.00 1945 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.05 0.98 20.26 22.83 10.29 0.00 0.00 1946 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.86 4.14 0.49 5.96 7.44 0.73 0.00 1947 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 14.21 45.28 28.76 0.00 0.00 1948 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.37 19.06 49.18 20.58 3.30 0.00 1949 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.47 43.80 22.71 3.46 0.00 1950 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 63.17 93.85 52.26 2.01 0.00 1951 5.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.15 0.00 0.00 24.32 57.76 17.36 0.00 5.31 1952 0.00 1.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.26 32.35 21.62 3.53 0.00 1953 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.82 5.51 1.77 8.53 58.65 18.65 1.90 1.67 1954 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.17 7.39 3.99 13.70 29.81 45.93 0.74 1.68 1955 6.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.41 62.47 85.31 9.98 0.00 0.00 1956 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.32 1.84 28.42 9.36 3.94 10.79 0.00 1957 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.50 0.00 2.10 63.68 3.39 0.00 0.00 1958 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.23 1.22 0.00 48.15 45.94 13.16 0.00 0.00 1959 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.11 4.95 7.16 6.04 28.23 28.61 0.00 0.00 1960 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.06 9.57 5.07 57.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 1961 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.26 0.00 139.59 42.81 8.74 0.00 1962 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.45 2.84 26.27 0.00 0.00 1963 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.90 20.95 69.08 0.00 0.00 1964 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.07 0.20 34.32 104.57 26.75 0.86 0.00 1965 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.29 0.00 9.90 65.74 7.39 0.00 0.00 1966 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.40 19.02 27.38 42.12 33.45 8.85 0.00 1967 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.89 97.58 23.24 0.00 0.00 1968 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.15 0.00 6.03 15.62 10.27 0.00 0.00 1969 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.03 58.28 36.96 52.60 13.86 0.00 1970 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.19 0.00 1.88 12.74 8.52 14.85 0.00 0.00 1971 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.82 10.75 73.92 1.67 8.61 0.00 1972 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.12 6.77 0.00 13.85 11.09 0.00 1.77 0.00 1973 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.26 6.67 19.92 13.99 0.00 0.00 1974 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.97 1.74 17.64 45.41 2.62 0.00 0.00 1975 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.01 7.92 9.53 42.93 11.20 0.00 2.47 1976 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.02 0.00 1.08 46.37 25.06 9.65 0.00 0.00 1977 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.09 19.03 3.20 0.00 0.00 1978 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 7.55 46.40 6.89 0.20 0.00 1979 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 3.72 33.41 53.33 1.64 0.00 0.00 1980 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.10 51.69 18.64 12.52 0.00 1981 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.74 1.71 0.25 7.90 76.07 2.87 10.79 0.00 1982 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.10 0.00 3.24 21.51 1.65 0.00 0.00 1983 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.52 7.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 1984 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.26 30.64 21.30 12.86 16.24 1985 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.93 18.43 33.68 11.59 19.35 0.00 1986 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.12 0.00 5.63 21.24 0.00 3.80 0.00 1987 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.86 16.16 3.34 0.00 0.00 1988 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.03 71.97 24.00 4.99 0.00 1989 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.93 2.45 35.00 90.08 4.02 0.82 1.82 1990 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.05 32.91 25.72 30.13 0.00 0.00 1991 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.25 7.97 18.05 5.91 2.37 0.00 1992 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.45 37.97 8.72 0.00 0.00 1993 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.00 19.85 18.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.57 8.32 2.88 0.00 19.26 0.00 1995 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.08 11.10 80.78 85.43 45.12 1.58 0.00 1996 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 21.35 55.46 57.46 25.01 6.09 0.00 1997 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 11.23 0.00 26.64 2.24 0.00 0.00 1998 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 42.79 88.57 39.50 7.58 1.41 1999 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.42 0.00 54.35 78.08 20.81 19.87 0.00 2000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 43.71 52.17 23.26 0.00 0.00 2001 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.30 0.00 10.02 51.88 17.07 28.76 1.05 2002 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.53 3.41 46.75 15.74 0.00 0.00 2003 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.19 0.00 1.19 14.00 11.52 111.06 30.50 0.00 4.81 2004 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 64.69 155.01 5.24 1.09 0.85 2005 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.92 60.38 39.22 68.21 52.41 8.97 13.22 2006 4.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.76 2.94 9.59 59.64 3.61 0.00 0.00 2007 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.77 0.53 35.80 29.00 2.61 3.01 1.27 2008 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.25 37.56 25.78 61.21 11.19 9.20 0.00 2009 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.06 11.22 3.19 8.11 0.00 2010 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.81 2.30 37.02 88.50 24.57 7.29 0.00 2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.88 7.21 27.58 54.20 31.69 3.75 0.00 2012 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.36 6.84 0.00 36.04 56.89 28.50 0.00 0.00 2013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.38 5.05 2.20 16.06 5.43 3.47 1.53 2014 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.95 13.44 16.56 29.78 0.00 0.00 2015 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.12 1.07 1.13 15.83 12.31 26.58 3.65 0.00 2016 4.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.56 2.11 0.00 28.81 27.28 71.28 7.03 0.00 2017 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.40 4.20 38.20 174.10 18.80 1.70 0.00 2018 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 12.20 2.90 72.80 42.90 0.00 0.00 2019 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 3.50 16.4 93.4 12.6 5.90 0.00

Here is an updated look at the Atlantic in the current La Nina v. the last 10. Someone had suggested I use the OISST database. Will be curious to see how August looks. You can see how cold the Tropical Atlantic is to the prior 10 La Nina Julys. We're definitely nearing the cold-AMO. The IOD actually stands out quite a bit too. The real question is...what the hell is this map doing with colored anomalies over land?

Some thoughts about the winter. I don't have a winter blend yet. But I'm fairly certain in the specific stuff I outlined above the actual years. Very Early / General Winter Idea for New Mexico 2022-23 Important Features: "Volcanic Winter", with extra moisture in the sky. "Dead Hurricane Season" Winter for N-Hemisphere La Nina that fades fast into Neutral or El Nino in Jan-Mar High Solar Activity Less Important Features / Indicators of Heat/Moisture Budget Allocation: Heavy SW US August Rains (favored in high solar) Heavy SW US June Rains (weak SW ridging winter indicator) Early SW US heat that faded later Summer (EPO indicator) High Sea Ice Extent in Aug-Sept (favored cold AMO) What It Means: - Extremely wet periods (SW US) are likely in Fall and/or Spring in volcanic periods. - Few to no major hurricane days are highly correlated to wetter winters SW US in La Nina. - Dead hurricane seasons are correlated to savage cold SW US in mid-Dec to mid-Jan. - Early heat (90F before 5/15 in ABQ) favors a cold winter almost always (via EPO look?). - High solar favors heavy rain/snow in March in the SW US. - Heavy rain in June in cold-ENSO favors frequent snows (typically 5 months v. normal Nina of 2-3). - Heavy rain in August, especially if coupled with October favors heavy precip March, heavy snow March, and high SW US seasonal snow totals generally. - La Nina falling apart in Jan-Apr would favor a warm SW US Feb-Mar, with a cool late Spring. - Dead NW Pacific hurricane season generally favors major winter +WPO looks. - Active monsoon often favors wet/cold/snowy Western US Decembers. - Eastern US has generally been cold in cold-ENSO with high(er) min sea ice extent since 2007. Mid-Jan to Mid-Feb? - Northeast US generally sees less snow in low-ACE La Nina, effect is strongest by Philadelphia Candidates for SW US Extreme Wetness Based on Matching Observations: - NM: September, October, December, March, May. Unlikely: Nov, Jan, Apr. - Best guesses for ABQ snow: October, December, January, February, March. Unlikely: Nov (-WPO / cold SE?) - Favored for heavy ABQ snow: mid-Dec to mid-Jan, March. Overall Look - something like 1959-60 (+QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, active monsoon, high solar) 1984-85 (=QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, volcanic, followed La, active monsoon, low sun, high ice) 1996-97 (-QBO, cold ENSO, active monsoon/hurricane season, followed La Nina, turns into El Nino early, low sun) 2011-12 (-QBO, cold ENSO, active hurricane season, followed La Nina, near El Nino mid-2012, high solar, dead mons) 2013-14 (+QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, active monsoon, turned to El Nino, high solar, high sea ice) 2020-21 (+QBO, cold ENSO, active hurricane season, poor monsoon, low solar, followed El Nino) -2004-05(+QBO, warm ENSO, after warm ENSO, big hurricane season, turns to La, med solar) 2022-23 (+QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, volcanic, active monsoon, high sun, follows La, high sea ice) Possible Substitutions 1954-55 (-QBO, cold ENSO, avg hurricane season, followed El Nino, weak monsoon, low sun) 1971-72 (+QBO, cold ENSO, avg hurricane season, followed La Nina) 1974-75 (+QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, volcanic, followed La Nina, active monsoon, low sun) 1978-79 (+QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season) 1983-84 (-QBO, cold ENSO, dead hurricane season, follows El, volcanic) 2016-17 (+QBO, ~cold ENSO, active hurricane season, follows El, weak monsoon) Best objective matches - US pretty cold? Possible but likely will change. 1971-72, 1974-75 (x2), 1984-85 (x3), 2011-12, 2013-14, 2020-21, -2004-05

I'm treating Tonga as a N. Hem volcano because it erupted more greenhouse gasses than aerosols, since N Hem / S Hem volcanoes have opposite effects on the Northern Hemisphere hurricane seasons. So the big N. Hem volcanoes I know of are El Chicon (1982), with Volcan De Fuego debatable in 1932 and 1974. I don't think the 1932 eruption was big enough though - since 1933 was an insane hurricane season. The volcanic / dead La Nina hurricane seasons I'm looking at are really 1983-84, 1984-85, and 1985-86 (even though I don't consider it a La Nina, it's close enough). You won't find a match on all the factors you listed with how few major volcanic years there are. High solar is generally a monsoon enhancer globally. The top precipitation matches recently, on a national level have been these: You can see temps are similar to a similar set of years too. It's generally a dead La Nina / cold ENSO + volcanic blend.

Also, for what it's worth, no hurricane seasons with under 10 ACE total through 8/31 have blown up to hyper activity in at least the last 90 years. So the hurricane season is pretty likely to stay dead if nothing blows up in the next week. A lot of the dead seasons in La Ninas in the 1970s/1980s also followed volcanoes - you had a big eruption in Central America in Fall 1974 I'm pretty sure. The AMO is a bit over-rated as a hurricane indicator since the tropics are always warm, and what you really need is something to screw up pressure patterns. Statistically, hurricane activity through August v. the total of the season behaves something like ((August ACE) x (1.9)) + (47). So the entire range in 90 years is 0-120 ACE or something if the season stays under 10 ACE through 8/31, centered right around 50 ACE, with like a 90%+ chance of under 100. Super super dead for a La Nina.

The volcano that erupted earlier this year was an underwater event. So much of the emission material into the sky is water vapor. That's a known green house gas, with relatively little S04 emitted compared to similar sized eruptions like Pinatubo. The paper I linked in the ENSO thread on volcanic impacts to hurricane activity says that typically a Southern Hemisphere volcano moves the location of the Inter-Tropical-Convergence-Zone (ITCZ) and disrupts/enhances hurricane formation/intensity in some areas in both hemispheres. https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1900777116 In summary, tropical eruptions lead to a consistent decrease in environmental variables associated with the number and intensity of tropical cyclones over Southeast Asia, northwestern and northeastern Australia regardless of whether the eruption occurs in the NH or SH. In the other regions, TrNH and TrSH eruptions lead instead to opposing effects. In particular, the variables associated with number and intensity of TCs decrease in the North Atlantic after TrNH and increase following TrSH eruptions. But that paper assumes high aerosol emission - I've been working on the assumption that the water vapor delivered high up into the sky had the equivalent of an anti-aerosol outcome. In other words, normally a volcano in the Southern Hemisphere would enhance N-Hemisphere ACE/hurricane activity with the aerosols. But this volcano did the opposite. The "pseudo" El Nino response everyone is bitching about I think is actually the extra forcing from the heat added to the system by the volcano. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere In the study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer. That’s nearly four times the amount of water vapor that scientists estimate the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines lofted into the stratosphere. The extra water vapor / sudden forcing via extra heat is also consistent with the wildness of the Summer - drought/heat in Europe, China, the Central US, and then very active/wet monsoons in other places. I have a method for dealing with volcanic effects in my outlook, but this will be the first year I've had to test it. Should be a weird winter. There are a lot of weird things that happen after big volcanic eruptions.

https://lamont.columbia.edu/news/large-volcanic-eruptions-can-alter-hurricane-strength-and-frequency I have a whole bunch of papers I like on volcanism and weather patterns, but this one is probably the most relevant for the idiotic forecasts of hyperactivity this year following a VEI 5-6 eruption. Major volcanic eruptions in the tropics + ENSO have been studied for a while. https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1900777116

Cold ENSO, low ACE (<120 total), 2-3 inches of rain in Albuquerque in August (currently: 2.43"). The non-2011 years are also excellent precipitation matches. Wettest August here in 16 years - way overdue. The month is not particularly close to ending just yet though. My current analog finalists are something like this: Temps: 1959, 1970, 1971, 1983, 1984, 1985, 2011, 2020 (I still like 2004 as a good anti-log too for most periods) Precip: 1974, 1984, 1988, 1996, 2000, 2008, 2013, 2016 If you add 0.2C everywhere for the warming since 1996, where that blend is centered, you end up with a pretty close SST match actually. I suspect this is actually a pretty decent blend, but I'd like to see how September goes. Have some other contending blends too.

It's not a myth - people aren't outside at night. You're the type of person who spends all of your time on the internet aren't you? What makes you think there aren't others who do the same? The actual story of the Summer is the greening of the land as the drought recedes. You can pretend that's less important than your bizarre obsession with irrelevant levels of heat, but it's still complete horseshit, no matter how you spin it.

A lot of the looks I get look like this - I wouldn't call it horrible for your region. A bit warm, but not too bad for snow. That warm spot everyone obsesses over in the NE Pacific south of Alaska has been cooling a lot lately. With anti-2004-05 in there, I tend to get 30-35 inches of snow for Logan in similar setups. (I do the anomaly of 2004-05 in a given spot, and flip it, and then include the flipped value in the average. So instead of +45 inches of snow, it's -45, and lowers your total).

To me, this is only possible with weaknesses in the subtropical ridge. These are astounding totals for here in two months. The old Don Sutherland curse.