raindancewx

My issue with 2014-15 and 1957-58 has always been how ideally positive the PDO was in those years. PDO should continue to weaken toward neutral. But I don't really expect it to go super positive. I expect it to stay negative through at least most of the Nov-Apr period. If nothing else with 1957, the timing of the MJO looks off to me. Major systems in the Gulf in June like Audrey usually occur with specific MJO setups. 1957 is relatively opposite June isn't it? Cold middle US, warm East & West. 1986 June is super cold Texas, super hot Southeast and Western US - also pretty opposite. Both consistent with opposite PDO conditions. The weeklies for June imply Nino 3.4 was at 28.6C - in which case we're closer to 1997 and 2015 than anything else, at least for a bit.

The models are finally realizing this event is not going to be historically strong - this has been obvious for a while by matching actual SSTs. The Pacific looks a lot more realistic to me on the new run with a weaker El Nino. The temperature / upper level maps at this point last year were completely wrong for the actual winter pattern. But the SST patterns start to be pretty realistic at this time for winter on the models.

One nice thing about the dry heat early is it makes my burgers taste better later in the season. 1957-58 (286 sunspots/month July-Jun) and 1986-87 (19) are both bad matches for solar individually, but the blend is solid (152). June 2023 is around 150 sunspots. I believe the new Canadian will be out tonight. But 7/1 is Canada Day right? So might be a day late for that.

1957/1986 is pretty good for solar/strength/order but I don't like it for the IOD and AMO setups. You have to get pretty cute to match the main features the way the Canadian has it. This is one of the blends that's kind of a C+ match. But it's hard to get the western Pacific right with the warmest waters in the Nino zone as shown on the Canadian. 10 blend analogs, 3 blend anti-logs 2015-16 x3 2018-19 x3 1972-73 1997-98 1992-93 2012-13 -2014-15 x3 That's a very similar winter to last year if it developed. But I don't think the June Canadian run has quite the right idea, and my blend isn't a great match anyway.

I've been trying to match historical blends to what the CFS and June 1 Canadian run show for winter SSTs. Even with anti-logs in there I've not found a blend I'm satisfied with yet. My guess is the new Canadian run out tomorrow will have a better handle on most features now that we're only ~five months out from the start of winter. Potentially only ~4 months out from the event peak too. I know the seasonal forecasts showed a weak monsoon out here. But Beatriz in the Pacific should dump a lot of moisture into the monsoon circulation when it scrapes Jalisco and the Sea of Cortez. Monsoon should gain power quite quickly after. By the way, the AMO time series that went back to 1856 is no longer being updated. Not sure why exactly. Not thrilled about that - the Atlantic looks like the dead cat bounce years in the early 1960 before the AMO flip. https://www.psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/AMO/ I am increasingly optimistic for a snowy winter for a large area of the US. The current guess is a severely cold winter somewhere in the SE US, with a pretty warm winter Northern Plains. I've been toying with doing a weak+strong El Nino blend minus the recent La Ninas with +PDO features, with 1992 and 2012 added in for volcanic legacy and low sea ice. For me to go gung-ho on 1972 as the main analog, I'd like to see the NE US get hit by 1-2 tropical storms or hurricanes ala Agnres and Carrie.

Yeah...no monsoon just yet. Not quite enough moisture. ABQ - D a t e Time (mdt) Wind (mph) Vis. (mi.) Weather Sky Cond. Temperature (ºF) Relative Humidity Wind Chill (°F) Heat Index (°F) Pressure Precipitation (in.) Air Dwpt 6 hour altimeter (in) sea level (mb) 1 hr 3 hr 6 hr Max. Min. 24 17:52 W 18 G 29 10.00 Fair CLR 94 -3 96 81 2% NA 90 30.08 1009.4 24 16:52 W 14 G 25 10.00 Fair CLR 96 -0 2% NA 91 30.09 1009.7 24 15:52 S 8 G 20 10.00 Fair CLR 92 3 3% NA 88 30.12 1010.8 24 14:52 SW 9 G 18 10.00 Fair CLR 91 4 4% NA 87 30.13 1010.9 24 13:52 Vrbl 7 G 22 10.00 Fair CLR 88 5 4% NA 85 30.16 1011.6 24 12:52 SW 10 G 17 10.00 Fair CLR 86 7 5% NA 83 30.17 1012.0 24 11:52 SW 5 10.00 Fair CLR 81 11 83 57 7% NA 79 30.19 1013.6

No real sign of the monsoon yet for us. The heat wave in the Central Mexican highlands is starting to break though. That often precedes wetter periods here by 1-3 weeks. Here is one of the towns in Hidalgo that averages 75/51 for high/low temps in June at 8,000 feet. "Cool" to see 40s showing up in their forecasts again. I know people worry about the "global south" with climates warming, but mountains are still mountains. We should do our annual post Summer solstice flirtation with 100 degree temps here. Fortunately, the dryness remains, so lows are still between 58 and 70 most of the time. It's only in the 90s even on a record hot/ near record day here for 6-12 hours, even right at the solstice.

CFS is actually showing a fairly similar pattern that looks similar to the July 1972, 1997, -2014 blend that has worked fairly well for June. Some coolness NW US, pretty hot elsewhere. Mexico is quite sensitive to Nino 3 / 1.2 warming. From what I can see, the current heat wave over Mexico is somewhat similar to 1957, 1982, 1991, 2009 since 1950. By severity and timing, 1982 is the closest El Nino June heat wave match. I look at some of the towns in Hidalgo that are 7,000-9,000 feet up without major heat island effects. Many of those towns typically run 75F/51F high/low ranges in June, but are set to finish at like 83F/53F for the month (which to be real, is still quite lovely). So the 63F average temperature for June v. 68F normal is consistent with the +5F shown by Hidalgo state (20N/100W). The other common June El Nino pattern is below - Guadalajara, at ~5,000 feet is really roasting (this is v. average June highs of 87F / with a 63F low). As with Hidalgo though, the absence of rain / humidity / clouds enhances the daily highs but keeps the lows cold or near average. The records in a lot of the towns in Hidalgo are in the low 30s for lows in June-August. That's because you still have 11+ hours of darkness and high elevation. Add dry air to that and the lows can really plummet once in a great while. Guadalajara is thus seeing cool lows and very hot highs at the moment for June, for +4F or so net..

It's interesting to look at the stronger El Ninos by solar conditions. We've not had a major El Nino (27.5C+ in DJF) with high solar (>55 sunspots on average for July-June) in a very long time. 1940, 1957, 1972, 1982, 1991, 2002. There are a bunch of bubble years - 1997-98 and 2015-16 for solar, and several others for strength. The major El Ninos with low solar are 1965, 1986, 1994, 2009 Not a big deal for spatial temperature patterns. Both are warm north cool south looks. Pretty different precipitation though. You can see a smile shaped subtropical jet pattern in the high solar years. Different storm pattern to a SW->NE running subtropical jet that hits Baja California to LA but misses most of California and the Northeast in low solar years.

Here is one of the blends I've been watching for a little while. Will this happen? Doubt it - but we'll see how July-November goes. The blend probably needs to be warmed up 1-2 degrees nationally. Should be cold in the West in July if the 1997, 1972, -2014 blend were to hold. October would be severe again - and very cold nationally. That's consistent with my volcano ideas. Pretty cold December nationally too. East then torches Jan-Mar.

Globally, the Summer heat waves this year have been quite consistent with the warming of Nino 3.4. Western Canada, Mexico/Caribbean states, Western Europe, the Maghreb/North Africa/Middle East, India/Pakistan, Western China, with the US relatively unaffected except immediately downwind of the Canadian hot spots. Southwestern Canada had temperatures near 100F in May, with Pakistan seeing near 120F recently. Mexico got to the mid-80s as high up as 8,000 feet on the Central Plateau against average highs in the mid-70s. 2003 and 2015 are some recent years when El Nino conditions were present by Summer, with major heat waves across Europe and the Middle East. Here is 2015 in Europe. I believe August saw temps over 120F for a time in Iraq. The C to F conversion is (C x 1.8) + 32. So the 35C-40C range is 95F to 104F. From this account: extreme temps on twitter. 110s in Western China - (46.6 x 1.8)+32 = 116F (+15F v. average high for June)

I entered the long Tip response into an AI bot with the following prompt - "please explain this so a five year old would understand". Here is the translation for everyone who hates jargon and poor writing: Okay, so imagine there's a big puzzle in front of us that we are trying to put together. We have different pieces of information that fit together like the pieces of a puzzle. But right now, some of those pieces aren't fitting together very well because something is interfering with them. This interference is caused by something called GLAAM, which makes the air move in a certain way in the atmosphere. Right now, the GLAAM is not doing a very good job and it's making it harder for us to figure out how things are working together. There are other things going on too, like ocean patterns and wind patterns that can also affect how everything fits together. And all of these things can make it hard for us to predict what's going to happen in the future. It's like trying to solve a really hard puzzle, but some of the pieces don't seem to match up like they should.

Remember how DT was freaking out about the PDO reversing very quickly? Complete bullshit for May - Keep in mind, these values are now "normalized" from the "un-normalized" values Mantua produced before. It's kind of dumb to have a normalized index from something that's produced with such tortured methodology in the first place. But it is what it is. Behaviorally, I still like 1972, it's been near identical on both PDO values and Nino 3.4 values all year. It followed a multi-year La Nina, and the 1971-72 to 1972-73 transition is one of the only La Nina to El Nino transitions in the last century where the La Nina was cold in the West. 2022-11-01T00:00:00Z -2.12 2022-12-01T00:00:00Z -1.98 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z -0.92 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z -1.1 2023-03-01T00:00:00Z -1.63 2023-04-01T00:00:00Z -2.18 2023-05-01T00:00:00Z -1.65 https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO Previous developing El Nino May PDO (normalized) values: 2018 - 0.00 2014 - +1.41 2009 - -0.75 2006 - +0.35 2002 - -0.82 1997 - +1.84 1994 - +0.83 1991 - -1.04 1986 - +1.06 1982 - -0.60 1976 - -0.73 1972 - -1.81 1968 - 0.70 1965 - -0.48 1963 - -1.07 1957 - +0.14 1951 - -0.91

This is how I see the strength of this event playing out. The Euro has some skill at this range for winter, but the result is almost always at the edge of what it forecasts.

Solar above 55 sunspots annualized from July-June in Albuquerque and a lot of the high terrain in the West has statistically significantly differences in snowfall tendencies in March. Here, we're 1/36 for March snow over 3 inches in low solar years since March 1932. We're 16/56 I believe in high solar March for over 3 inches of snow. It's literally 10:1 frequency. I always test solar stuff with hypothesis testing, assuming no difference. But 10:1 passes at highly statistically significant levels using a difference in proportions test - but it only works in March. One of the things about ENSO that is lost is why it does what it does. The deserts of the world are models of strong highs and consistent weather. But dry places that are high up are unbalanced. You can see locally we're far more likely to see extreme temperatures on the cold side of average than the hot side of average at all times of year. El Nino is much more likely to do that for highs via clouds, rain and snow. But enough snow in the winter does the job here too. It gets very cold here when snow sticks around for a few days when the dew points crater back down. These are literally counts of days that are 5 to 25 below average, and 5 to 25 above average in 1991-2020 in Albuquerque, against 1991-2020 averages by month. You can see we are almost never 15F above average for highs or lows.

The 90 degree timing doesn't matter for anything locally in El Nino. In La Nina it's the opposite of what you think. Late heat onset is tied to warmer winters in the Southwest. Early heat onset is tied to colder winters. We hit 90F May 7th in both 2020-21 and 2022-23. Both years saw pretty intense and severe cold patterns at times in the West, with similar behavior in other early onset years for the heat. Intense early heat for the West almost always ties into the MJO being strong in the right phases for the West in winter. Right now we have: +El Nino following La Nina +Volcanic effects that are opposite normal (extra water vapor/heating) +High solar That's it. High solar with El Nino is a very reliable signal for heavy snow in the Southwest. El Nino after La Nina tends to be cold/wet or both int he Southwest. Volcanic years tend to be very cold with unusually intense storms nationally in the Fall/Spring. I will say this - Canada and Russia have been very hot at times in recent weeks. I doubt the Summer heat will be interrupted by nice early cold shots from the North if that continues. 38C (100F+) in Siberia at 52N when we can't buy a 90F day in the high desert at 35N is pretty impressive. There is a part of me that thinks of a lot of the high-terrain of Northern Mexico and then the SW US will eventually get expanded into "subtropical highland" climate ala Mexico City as things continue to warm - but we'll see.

CPC has 28.33C for May 2023 now. (I did adjust the early 2023 numbers to match CPC's edits - they constantly tinker with the data). https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt I have no idea if the winter will look like 1972-73. But I'm increasingly on-board with that year as a good estimate for how warm Nino 3.4 gets. I can see a month or two around 28.5C in the Fall, but only 28.0C or so in the actual winter. Nino 3.4 on the weeklies already looks like it may have peaked at 28.4C. Following the foot steps of June 1972 (28.18C) is doable. I've been pleased with the Summer so far locally. No 90s yet. None coming either in the near term. Outside chance we reach 6/10 or later without reaching 90 here - hasn't been done in decades (1999). Follows a cold season with 111 lows that were freezing or colder. I'm very curious to see how the transitional seasons go this coming cold season. My current guess is another wild Fall.

1994 is actually the top matching May for developing El Nino in the past 100 years or so.

The Canadian has a cold winter for the Southern US. Still no +PDO depicted. Warm tongue east of Japan, some cold off the Western part of North America. I actually think the look below is pretty defensible as a realistic outcome. I'd expect a stormy, but not real cold winter for the NE/NW US in the look below.

Also, subsurface heat content is not really rapidly increasing. Nino 3.4 is going to finish May in the low 28C range. Average years see a sea surface temperature drop from May to Dec-Feb. But El Ninos (usually) still see actual SSTs fall from May to the following DJF. No year has even seen more than a 0.4C rise from May to DJF. Mexican precipitation and temperature patterns are more strongly correlated to ENSO this time of year than the US. May had canonical El Nino temperatures in place there spatially. The map has negative correlations for Northern Mexico. So +Nino 3.4 = cold. Precipitation is still kind of doing its own thing - not really a dry south / wet north look.

CFS has an unusual look for June for the US temperature profile. Not common in El Nino from some quick looks. I was able to get a decent match by warming up a blend of 1963, 1992, with -2018 added in. Ignore the color template scale - just pretend its -7 to +7 - I made the blend much warmer. The actual pattern is essentially a -3 to +3 look. I do intend to list the analog model I use for global conditions for purchase or at least download somewhere. Since I have annualized solar conditions there for July-June, I'm going to wait until June is over before I release it.

I've been thinking about listing my analog model online for purchase online. Would any of you be interested? You basically type in your expected winter outcomes on seven global variables. Then all years back to 1931 are scored based on a weighted statistical model I developed off of a multi-factor polynomial regression. The scoring is then sortable, and I have a listing of what each variable corresponds to over the long-term (rain, snow, temps, etc in winter). Since ENSO is important but not dominant in the model, you can get strong scoring matches for ENSO years that are not in the same third of the scale (i.e. a rogue La Nina or Neutral might match this year) in special circumstances. Usually there are one or two odd ducklings in the seven variable set. So I pick a fixer year among the medium-level match years to bring the pack to the point of mimicking actual global conditions. The main purpose of the tool is to systematically score years as similar or dissimilar without needing to run through hundreds of maps manually. Knowing the most dissimilar years can actually be useful too, to see if reversing the exact opposite years produces similar matches to the most similar years. The objective scoring last year had both 1984 and 2016 as strong matches as an example. Pretty cold and severely wet winters in the West, just like we actually saw. 1995 was in there as among the least similar La Ninas, which is part of why I was pretty bullish on a shitty season for snow for most of you in the Northeast.

My current working blend for Summer, at least for precipitation is May 1972/1997. I think maybe 1972/2012 is better for temperatures, but haven't really looked at that yet. Here is that blend in May v. May 2023 to date. You can see the wet spots are similar running up the front range, NE, and in the SW, with the dry spots similarly placed too. Keep in mind, I'm incorporating this verifying in some form by month end -

I don't think anyone is actually dumb enough to forecast seasonally just based on ENSO. I have a seven factor method for seasonal stuff nationally. Then once the general idea is determined, I try to narrow it on the monthly patterns. But that's much harder. The atmospheric river thing in La Nina is not really new though either. The Great Flood of 1862 in the West was not an El Nino as an example. These are not new patterns. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862 Any of this sound familiar? The Great Flood of 1862 was the largest flood in the recorded history of California, Oregon, and Nevada, inundating the western United States and portions of British Columbia and Mexico. It was preceded by weeks of continuous rains and snows that began in Oregon in November 1861 and continued into January 1862. This was followed by a record amount of rain from January 9–12, and contributed to a flood that extended from the Columbia River southward in western Oregon, and through California to San Diego, and extended as far inland as Idaho in the Washington Territory, Nevada and Utah in the Utah Territory, and Arizona in the western New Mexico Territory. The event dumped an equivalent of 10 feet (3.0 m) of water in California, in the form of rain and snow, over a period of 43 days.[3][4] Immense snowfalls in the mountains of far western North America caused more flooding in Idaho, Arizona, New Mexico, as well as in Baja California and Sonora, Mexico the following spring and summer, as the snow melted. ...The weather pattern that caused this flood was not from an El Niño-type event, and from the existing Army and private weather records, it has been determined that the polar jet stream was to the north, as the Pacific Northwest experienced a mild rainy pattern for the first half of December 1861. In 2012, hydrologists and meteorologists concluded that the precipitation was likely caused by a series of atmospheric rivers that hit the Western United States along the entire West Coast, from Oregon to Southern California.[6] An atmospheric river is a wind-borne, deep layer of water vapor with origins in the tropics, extending from the surface to high altitudes, often above 10,000 feet, and concentrated into a relatively narrow band, typically about 400 to 600 kilometres (250 to 370 mi) wide, usually running ahead of a frontal boundary, or merging into it.[7][8] With the right dynamics in place to provide lift, an atmospheric river can produce astonishing amounts of precipitation, especially if it stalls over an area for any length of time. ...The floods followed a 20-year-long drought.[9] During November, prior to the flooding, Oregon had steady but heavier-than-normal rainfall, with heavier snow in the mountains.[10]: 76–83  Researchers believe the jet stream had slipped south, accompanied by freezing conditions reported at Oregon stations by December 25. Heavy rainfall began falling in California as the longwave trough moved south over the state, remaining there until the end of January 1862, causing precipitation to fall everywhere in the state for nearly 40 days. Eventually, the trough moved even further south, causing snow to fall in the Central Valley and surrounding mountain ranges (15 feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada).[11][12]

The Jamstec seems to have a lower peak than a lot of the other models. Also has the transition away from an east-based event in Fall. I've mentioned that as a fairly likely outcome. For now, my assumption is an early peak in Nino 3.4. Halloween, plus or minus 30 days. Slow weakening after. The 1972-73 event weakened quickly despite a very healthy peak. Part of that is just how many La Ninas surrounded it: 1970-71, 1971-72, 1973-74, 1974-75, 1975-76. Never really had much of a chance. We've had multiple multi-year warm ENSO year events recently. I don't buy three initializing El Nino events in a row lasting two years each initialization. The image showing Nino 3.4 falling below +0.5C by winter 2024-25 matches my expectations. But I'd expect to be on the low side of the envelope starting around Jan-Feb.