raindancewx

I've been meaning to ask you for a while - when you say energy levels - what exactly are you measuring? Also, how? I'm always interested in adding new datasets to test for statistical relationships, but your stuff to my knowledge is not defined on the board.

My issue with using 1996-97 was how rapidly that year collapsed into the big 1997 El Nino. By early 1997, the subsurface was super warm, and you got some real interesting patterns, since it was developing from east to west. I wanted to use that year. But I don't quite trust how it played out, it's been different enough that I threw it out. A lot of the cold-ENSO years with similar early November heat waves for the NE US are kind of interesting - 1938, 1948, 1959 were years I saw today for similar Boston heat. I tried to pick Fall years that had major heat and cold waves. I know 2016/2020 were both very warm early November among my group, and then 1984, 2011, 2020 got pretty cold mid-month. Mid Nov 1984/2011/2020 is actually pretty decent for how mid-month will look as the cold drains into the US. 1984 goes to this, but still manages to be pretty warm in December in the east as an example for how I see it playing out. The purples are -5 (light) and -7 (dark) in degrees Fahrenheit. My gut is once the hurricane hits Florida, you'll see some stuff evolve differently on the models for late month and beyond.

I have some research on what the most active Novembers in the Atlantic correlate to later in the season. But have to see if the system shown on the models blows up as hits Florida as I suspect it will. I was expecting about 10 ACE for November, but we'll probably get to 15-20, since we're near 6-7 so far I believe. Over 25 in November is vanishingly rare, so I do think this little burst of activity is the end of it. I'm a bit jealous of the eastern warmth - we haven't been in the mid/upper 70s here in close to three weeks already. Have already had to clean off snow on my car twice. Not a fan of dewpoints in the 60s though.

You all should come visit. It's been a lovely Fall so far.

I defined "cold" and "very cold" days in Albuquerque as 5F or 10F below the daily average. My research indicated that ~100 ACE this year would translate to about 25-35 "cold days" from Nov-Feb, around 1 in 4 days for that period. So far, we're four days into November...and today was quite cold - with a high of 48 and a low of 33 so far, certainly more than five degrees below average, and consistent with the idea, as the average temperature is about 50 this time of year. I wanted to track this live to see how the distribution shakes out. "Cold" / -5F or colder v. daily average days in Nov-Feb: 25-35 expected. Will update throughout the season. Forecast analogs had a 7/10 frequency of a cold snap in November where a five day period averaged at least 5F below average, with each of the five days cold. We've achieved that now (11/12-11/17, and ongoing). November: 11/4 (48/32, -10.4) 11/5 (58/29, -6.5) 11/11 (48/26, -10.5) 11/12 (54/24, -8.1) 11/14 (49/32, -5.7) 11/15 (49/26, -8.3) 11/16 (44/26, -10.4) 11/17 (47/23, -10.0) 11/18 (40/28, -10.6) 11/19 (46/24, - 9.2) 11/20 (50/23, -7.0) 11/22 (49/25, -6.0) 11/23 (55/20, -5.1) 11/24 (47/25, -6.2) December: 12/13 (39/24, -5.4) 12/16 (37/22, -6.9) 12/17 (37/16, -9.8) 12/18 (36/22, -7.7) 12/23 (41/19, -5.9) January: 1/19 (41/21, -6.7) 1/22 (44/22, -5.0) 1/25 (41/25, -5.4) 1/26 (40/19, -9.0) 1/27 (43/17, -8.7) February: 2/9 (40/27, -7.2) 2/10 (43/21, -8.9) 2/11 (49/21, -6.1) 2/15 (41/25, -8.9) 2/16 (34/19, -15.6) 2/17 (44/17, -11.8) 2/27 (55/21, -6.8) "Very Cold" -10F or colder v. daily average days in Nov-Feb: November: 11/4 (48/32, -10.4) 11/11 (48/26, -10.5) 11/16 (44/26, -10.4) 11/17 (47/23, -10.0) 11/18 (40/28, -10.6) February: 2/16 (34/19, -15.6) 2/17 (44/17, -11.8)

The actual analogs Larry Cosgrove uses are pretty warm honestly. https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/ZM4CTyKXDSE 1992-93, 2012-13 (x2), 2013-14 (x2), 2016-17, 2021-22 "synoptic analogs" (I do like March 1993 in there, as there should be some very powerful systems this March, but not a fan of 1992-93 otherwise). The issue with years like 1992, 2000, 1985, etc that people throw around is you had widespread, month long near to record US cold in many places that just is not going to be verified at all this year. 1950-51, 1955-56, 1956-57, 1971-72, 1975-76, 1985-86, 1999-00, 2011-12, 2021-22 for ENSO I used 2011, 2012, 2016, 2021 at various weights - so I agree with some of these years. I thought 2013 was a pretty good analog for the Fall in the Summer, that was how I came up with the "wet Oct-Dec" period for the West back in June, but I don't like it for winter. I saw Paul Pastelok the Bastardi long-range replacement at Accuweather say in an interview the other day he thought 2011-12 & 2013-14 as a blend was a decent guess for the winter. Not particularly blend-able years though, outside both being cold where I am in Dec - given the very different Feb/Mar outcomes as an example. These are the Cosgrove years at the link - at his weights:

Want to store this here for posterity. I've never tried to score precipitation outlooks on the models at this range -

Can't remember the exact time frame, but I think there is research saying that when the MJO gets stuck in 6/7 for a while, as it has been, you see blocking (-NAO) in 2-3 weeks as the pattern loosens up. That would be consistent with ideas for a late November period of blocking. All that said, +/-NAO isn't much of a warm or cold signal in the US in November compared to other months - it's broadly irrelevant outside the far SE portion of the US (FL/GA/eastern NC/SC). Locally, the +NAO is actually a decent wet signal in November - so I'm hoping it remains positive. Part of why I had Nov quiet locally is the expectation of a brief -NAO period. Also, the Euro plume had Nino 3.4 around, but a touch warm of -1.0C for October. I know people are obsessed with calling these events moderate, but come on, we're coming up on 15 years without a 25.5C or colder La Nina (-1.0C v. 1951-2010), and the weeklies have yet to fall below 25.7C at any point this Fall. Almost all La Ninas fall to 25.7C at some point...they kind of have to, to be La Nina.

I've been expecting +AO/+NAO/+WPO conditions for December (net) since August. There is a pretty strong correlation between Atlantic ACE and December blocking tendencies. Low ACE heavily disfavors blocking and a +WPO look in December statistically. All that said, I think we get back to MJO phase five late November, and then there is a week or two with blocking that probably ends very early December, after the warm period coming for the East. If the models are right at all about November precipitation, the Oct-Dec period I've been targeting for a wet West is going verify very well.

Your move, "Dec 2000 / Dec 2010" crew.

You guys are often (rightly) skeptical of the stuff I post with ACE, so I wanted to give an example of how it is supposed to work when you have a close match for timing and intensity tendencies: ACE: June / Jul / Aug / Sept / Oct / Nov 1988: 0 / 0 / 2 / 72 / 24 / 5 2022: 1 / 2 / 0 / 76 / 5 / ? Unlikely to hold as a match into November, but I do think a lot of similar looks to 1988 will show with different timing occasionally. I had it as a C tier analog for the winter. The main reason it should break is the MJO died in Nov 1988, but it will likely remain active this November. But for now, both late Oct 1988 and late Oct 2022 have the MJO fairly active in 6/7. October 1988 October 2022 (so far)

Pending the brief flare-up that should develop, June-October ACE is likely to match most closely with 1981, as 1988 has fallen off a bit (it was more active in October). So I fully expect another storm or two in November. Outside November 1932 (70+), you rarely get more than 25 ACE in November. It's not uncommon for powerful storms to spin up in November, they just don't last very long. I'm expecting around 10 ACE for November. Four ACE is average since 1950.

The subsurface looks like it is making another push as of this week. I suspect this is beginning of the final push that should peak 11/15-12/15. Here is an update on the "Don Sutherland curse", where we get 400% of rain for an extended period after he complains it is four degrees above average for a week. Still looks like Scotland here to me. I've been seeing all sorts of tadpoles, chipmunks, coyotes and stray animals in the wake of the wettest monsoon here in close to a decade, and then an extremely wet October as well. Nice to be losing drought conditions for once too. Especially since there are decent wet signals for us locally in the months to come.

I wanted to briefly elaborate on the 1/20-2/20 period. If there is going to be a cold or stormy period in the East, it's likely then. It's ~2 harmonic / MJO cycles from now, and we've just experienced a pretty cold October look for much of the East. My main issue is the harmonic movements we've been seeing lately should start to fall apart as the La Nina collapses in January-April. September was active enough relative to the rest of the hurricane season that there should be both repeating dominant and recessive looks in the winter.

I was travelling through the middle of the country recently and asking people about the driest years on the Mississippi. That's kind of like a "memory" reservoir of recent US weather - snow, heat, rain, etc. A lot of the people told me that the lowest levels for river are years like 1988 - so I do think I'm on the right track with a decent winter out here. https://earthsky.org/earth/mississippi-river-hits-record-low-levels-2022/ I had a bunch of stuff like this in my forecast, but I trimmed it out, since we have virtually no one on here who cares about water trends in the middle of the US. Though the low level of the Mississippi this year is unprecedented in modern history, it’s normal, however, to see lower levels in the mighty river at this time of year, around areas such as Memphis. To be sure, during late summer and early fall, the waters can run low after hot and dry summers. Previously, the low-level record at Memphis was at -10.7 feet on July 10, 1988. Later, two other record lows happened on August 30, 2006, and September 19, 2012.

Interesting seeing the MJO freeze around 6/7 on the RMM method. It's right in the zone where the ~31C water goes to ~28C, like 87F to 80F roughly. My assumption for winter is that the spot will continue to see slow MJO progression through winter. For reference 6/7 is generally favorable for Western US cold if the thunderstorms enhance/get stuck there a lot. October for both US temps/precip has behaved like a pretty canonical MJO phase five month. 6/7 aren't that cold in the West in December - but I do think we'll likely get to 8-1 or start in 5 which are colder. The timing is generally MJO +45 days = same MJO as now. So early December (6/7) warm, then maybe 8/1 later - that would tie in well with my low-ACE idea where mid-Dec to mid-Jan is colder in the SW US in lower ACE years. 6/7 January is pretty cold Utah/Nevada with cold shifting SW to NW 6/7 February is pretty cold West

It looks fairly similar to 2012 if I remember right. I vaguely remember thinking the Fall looked like a progression of 1988/2001/2012 but I haven't looked in a week or so.

Calendar year to date is wettest since 2015 locally. Drought has been reduced massively. Hills look like the Scottish Highlands. Also: Fairly likely to finish October with top ten to near record rains in the city. Non-El nino years with heavy rain August & October.

We have had a nearly perfect, canonical look in October to MJO phase 5. Lovely to see, since phase five is quite cold here in mid-winter, and the MJO cycles every 45-days. Wet NE & SW US? Check. Cold East & Parts of the SW US? Check

The last five winters have actually been quite snowy in the West v. the East, as I've predominantly forecast like you said. Where I am, we had ~95% below average snow in 2017-18, but the five year average is still ~8 inches v. the long-term of ~10 inches. ABQ has only had ~40 inches since 2017-18 - but the long-term average is 10. Keep in mind, elevation in the city varies from 4,900 feet to 6,200 feet. So most of the city has had far more than 40 inches since 2017-18. At my house, I had: 2017-18: 0.1", or less even, we had one brief snow shower at 36 degrees. 2018-19: ~15 inches (~6" in Dec, ~4" in Jan, ~5" in Feb) 2019-20: ~12 inches (~8" in Nov, 3-4" in actual winter, ~0.5" in Apr) 2020-21: ~18 inches (~9" in Oct, ~6" in Feb, 3" in Dec, Jan, Mar) 2021-22: ~10 inches (~6" in Feb, ~4" in Mar) For what it's worth - once the solar cycle peaks I think we'll have 3/5 or 5/6 very snowy eastern winters, with jack shit for ABQ - that's what happened from 1998 to 2005, with a small exception in 2000. There are lots of cycles like this historically where one area of the US does very well repeatedly for snow over a 5-7 year period. As far as me: I was accused once of stealing hundreds of thousands of sensitive files at a job. I didn't do it. But during the investigation, I was given a whole range of psychological tests for emotional stability, personality type, IQ, etc. I'm quite normal. A normal person dislikes intellectual dishonesty - which as I've said is my issue. Repeatedly claiming to be right when you are wrong is quite irritating, and every time I point it out, people in this forum email me directly for doing so. Take it as you will.

Worth noting that the subsurface in the 100-180W zone got to -1.59 last October. But October 2020 was -1.11. We're closer to 2020 right now. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt v. 2021, we have a colder surface / warmer subsurface. I buy into ENSO order as a predictive variable, but not a fan of the "third year La Nina" crap that goes around. I don't see any particular reason why third year La Ninas should be colder than second year. You have plenty of cold second year La Ninas (1974, 1984 nationally, many others more regionally). We're about at that time where everyone and their mother tries to force square pegs into round holes as to why December will finally be the COLDEST EVA in the East. So let's go through the coldest December La Nina / cold ENSO events since 1980. December - Cold East (MJO in Oct) (ACE) (Prior Winter) 1983: Cold East (5-6-Neutral), (17) (El Nino) 1985: Cold Midwest/East (Neutral-6-1) (88) (La Nina) 1995: Cold East (dead/7), (227), (El Nino) 2000: Cold East (2-6), (119), (La Nina) 2005: Cold East (Neutral, 1-5), (245), (El Nino) 2010: Cold East (3-6), (166), (El Nino) 2017: Cold NE US (Neutral, 4-7), (225) (La Nina) December - Cold West (MJO in Oct) (ACE) (Prior Winter) 1984: Cold West (Neutral, 5-8), (84), (La Nina) (2022: Neutral, 5-??) (82??), La Nina) 1988: Cold West / Maine (5-7), (103), (La Nina) (2022: Neutral, 5-??) (82??), La Nina) 1996: Cold N. Plains (Neutral), (166), (La Nina) 1998: Cold NW US (5-6-neutral), (182), (El Nino) 2007: Cold West (Neutral, 8-1), (74), (El Nino) 2008: Cold West & North (Neutral, 3-5), (146), (La Nina) 2011: Cold SW US (6-2), (126), (La Nina) 2016: Cold NW US (5-neutral), (141), (El Nino) 2021: Cold West (5-neutral), (146), (La Nina) Other patterns - 1999: no cold (2-neutral), (177), (La Nina) 2020: Cold FL (5-7), (180), (El Nino) Matches on ACE, MJO Timing, ENSO Order: 3/3: 1984, 1988 2/3: 1985, 2000, 2021 October starts in MJO 5: 1983: Cold East 1984, 1988, 1998, 2016, 2020, 2021: Cold West/or warm all October 2011, 140 ACE, 6-2 in October - by no means perfect, but the MJO is only off one tick.

I included this in my winter outlook. The Euro is much more confident in an early demise to this event than the 2020 event, even though surface conditions have been much colder, like 0.2-0.4C colder, for months now v. 2020. Euro has La Nina conditions at 50/50 for January 2023, while it had 50/50 for La Nina conditions into April 2021 at this point.

Yup. Although some areas that don't get much snow should fluke their way to well above totals this year. Going to be a lot of moisture around this winter. Just need one get setup in those spots, and it's easier with elevation. I mean, some of you must have noticed by now that October looks a bit like 2011 nationally right? I'm not a big fan of that year because it has very different precipitation tendencies to this year - but it has been decent to a strong match almost every month for like 6-8 months now. October 1995/2004 as a blend is also a near opposite to how Oct 2022 looked on the CFS/Canadian, but we'll see soon enough if any of my thoughts are right.

I go more in depth at the link on the volcano. But basically, it probably limited the hurricane season in the Atlantic. That's usually a +NAO signal. The quiet August in the Atlantic is almost always a +WPO/+AO look in December. The famous exception is 1983 I think. The enhanced wetness globally, with floods everywhere from Pakistan to Death Valley are consistent with the volcano dumping enormous amounts of water vapor into the sky. Where can the Earth handle all that moisture falling out without causing too much damage? My guess is the subtropics - i.e. the deserts. But we'll see. We're already very close to pulling out a wet year here, which is vanishingly rare in a La Nina here. But of course it did happen in 1984...after a volcano.

I'm actually fairly bullish on this region for snow this winter - but I still have you guys pretty warm. I put out my forecast for anyone curious. I think the elevation could really help in Nov and Mar when some relatively powerful/cold systems come through as snow producers. https://www.scribd.com/document/599203054/2022-23-Winter-Outlook