raindancewx

Michael (2018) & Gladys (1968) in developing El Nino both hit the NW coast of Florida running SW->NE in October. It's interesting seeing the hurricane now. Suspect we'll see another burst of Gulf activity in mid-October before the season dies off. Several of the older El Ninos, like 1951 and 1972 did see Nino 4 get to 29.0C+ readings for a few months mid-year. CPC generally has the Nino zones warming about 0.1F per decade. That's part of why I've been looking at those years. If you remove 0.5C everywhere in the tropics in 2023 those years are similar to now spatially. Both -PDO setups too. By the way - all the years with developing Ninos that had -PDO readings through Summer? Those that flipped positive for the upcoming Oct-May, flipped by the end of August.

Now that the August heat wave centered on Texas is baked in, we've settled back into a very similar national temperature profile as in June. Heat is most severe in the middle of the US, and cool pockets exist by the coasts. This is one of my theories for the Fall-Spring, when the subsurface warms. Unfortunately, I don't think it is going to be the dominant pattern for the cold season. It's been a while, but I can remember patterns where the jet stream does this in the winter for long stretches. I don't think its crazy to expect the entrenched Midwest/Plains dry spot to persist via a high over the Midwest. Eventually we'll get a May 2015 / 1957 and that'll destroy it, but may be late Spring before it comes. At some point I need to go back and see if I can find that dry spot in a developing El Nino.

This is the real regression I use for anyone who cares - rather than the dumbed down version. B4 is ONI in DJF, B5 is annualized sunspots in July-June, and B6 is ONI in DJF in the prior year. For the past 29 El Ninos, that formula is accurate +/-1.7F in 26 of 29 El Ninos. ABQ El Nino DJF High = (2.899*B4^2)-(0.0161*B4*B5)+(1.566*B4*B6)+(0.0001046175*B5^2)-(0.017933*B5*B6)-(0.30338*B6^2)-(8.5467*B4)+(0.006026*B5)+(0.9541*B6)+(54.495) El Nino ONI DJF Sun Jul-J ONIp DJF Tmax Obs Tmax Proj Error Error 48.9 1939 1.0 125.9 -1.0 49.8 48.7 1.10 0.90 1940 1.9 94.4 1.0 49.8 49.3 0.50 0.90 1941 1.1 76.5 1.9 48.9 49.7 0.83 0.03 1945 0.8 95.8 -0.5 47.8 49.5 1.67 1.07 1951 0.5 62.8 -0.8 50.0 50.6 0.58 1.07 1953 0.8 9.5 0.4 50.7 50.2 0.53 1.83 1957 1.8 281.6 -0.2 50.5 50.6 0.13 1.57 1958 0.6 255.4 1.8 50.4 50.5 0.10 1.50 1963 1.1 29.1 -0.4 43.6 47.4 3.83 5.33 1965 1.4 37.1 -0.6 44.4 46.1 1.70 4.50 1968 1.1 155.7 -0.6 48.4 49.3 0.87 0.47 1969 0.5 148.6 1.1 52.0 51.6 0.43 3.13 1972 1.8 75.4 -0.7 45.2 45.5 0.27 3.67 1976 0.7 23.2 -1.6 48.1 46.5 1.60 0.80 1977 0.7 84.1 0.7 50.5 50.5 0.00 1.60 1982 2.2 129.2 -0.1 47.9 47.5 0.43 0.97 1986 1.2 19.1 -0.5 46.7 46.9 0.15 2.20 1987 0.8 65.3 1.2 50.0 50.3 0.33 1.07 1991 1.7 177.8 0.4 48.0 48.0 0.02 0.90 1994 1.0 36.9 0.1 54.4 48.8 5.57 5.47 1997 2.2 54.9 -0.5 47.1 46.6 0.50 1.80 2002 0.9 131.0 -0.1 50.7 49.8 0.90 1.80 2004 0.6 55.3 0.4 50.2 50.8 0.63 1.27 2006 0.7 20.1 -0.8 46.6 48.3 1.67 2.27 2009 1.5 13.2 -0.8 46.6 45.3 1.27 2.33 2014 0.6 90.7 -0.4 51.4 50.8 0.63 2.53 2015 2.5 55.8 0.6 51.4 51.9 0.50 2.50 2018 0.8 5.5 -0.9 48.2 47.3 0.90 0.70 2019 0.5 2.1 0.8 49.8 52.1 2.30 0.90

El Nino winters locally are pretty predictable for highs using a regression incorporating: - Nino 3.4 for winter - Nino 3.4 for prior winter - Solar conditions The ideal case is a strong El Nino following a strong La Nina with low solar. Generally speaking the scale is this: Weak El Nino ------------> Super Warm El Nino (current winter) Super Warm El Nino ------------> Super Cold La Nina (prior winter) Solar Maximum -------------> Solar Minimum (July-June annualized) The top scale I think of as 26.5C to 28.5C, where 28.5C = 10, and 26.5C = 0. (1 point = 0.2C) Middle scale is 24.5C - 28.5C where 24.5C = 10, and 28.5C = 0 (1 point = 0.4C) Solar is essentially 0-300 sunspots, where 0 = 10, and 300 = 0 (1 point = 30 sunspots) A year like 2018-19 was strongly supported to be somewhat cold: Nino 3.4 (4), Nino 3.4 prior (7), Solar (10) - a 7/10. This year, I get something like this: Nino 3.4 (~7.5), Nino 4 prior (6.5), Solar (4) - a 6/10, maybe 7 if Nino 3.4 goes up. A particularly severe winter would be 2009-10 locally: Nino 3.4 (8), Nino 3.4 prior (7), Solar (10) - 8/10 Very roughly, each average score above/below 5 corresponds to -1 / +1 against long-term averages. So I expect a -1F type winter here, while 2018-19 was more of a -2F winter against 1991-2020, while 2009-10 was a -3F winter.

You have to be careful with the solar stuff. The cycles are not always 11 years. Historical range from min to min or max to max is 9-13 years. So a year that looks like it is still climbing or falling can be the top/bottom of the cycle. The prior min was centered on February 2019, so we may already be at the peak (Feb 2024 would be +5 years from the min). We've been seeing the tendency reversal in temperatures I speculated on earlier. The SW US heat wave in July coincided with a record drop in subsurface heat for a warm ENSO event. Now the subsurface is warming, and it is cooling off quickly locally. We've had several cool days this month after none at all for six weeks.

The composite doesn't have ridging for the east coast. At 500 mb it's a high over 50N / 70W and a low in the Gulf of Alaska at 45N and 140W. But I don't really think the upper level pattern in aggregate is going to matter very much if it is as volatile this winter as I expect week to week or month to month. The snow follows the pressure tendency almost exactly.

I may update this later. But I'm actually most confident in the snow aspect of the coming cold season. The red numbers are % of the 1961-2020 Oct-May snow average for a spot, and below average. If you see a +Blue% that is the % above the 60-year average you should finish (i.e. +15%, if average is 20 inches = 23"). The blue numbers that say 100% (Grand Junction as an example) without + are forecast to be exactly average. I have the analogs behind this map, but I don't have a weighting I like yet, so not posting them for now.

Looking back, May-July was a pretty close match to 1951, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997, 2009 for precipitation trends nationally. I've fudged the scale by 15% to account for the extra moisture from the volcano. That blend is actually pretty decent for both temps and precipitation, especially if you get cute with the weighting. I'll wait until September to be sure, but some combination of those years, with anti-1993 looks like a good bet for the winter. They're generally high solar El Nino years following cold ENSO, with the QBO close enough, and a couple of the -PDO / Volcanic El Ninos in there.

Here is the Canadian for winter on the Aug 1 2022 run. There were low heights over the Northern US, and high heights almost all of the US, West included. The actual pattern was east / west for the split, not north / south. The models have some skill on like 11/30 for December - I use them for that. But beyond that, they're worthless for localized / non-global patterns. Even for something like water temperatures, the forecasts early in the thread from Feb-Mar had Nino 1.2 at like +2 right now, and it's more like +3. The only thing SSTs can do is go up or down, but even that's pretty far off at about the same lead time we have currently from winter. The 2022-23 winter was 25.96C in Nino 3.4 for Dec-Feb. The way I start my forecasts is just to look at years following similar winters that match the weather. Then roll forward. The similar winter years that turn to El Ninos are 1957-58, 1963-64, 1968-69, 1972-73, 1986-87, 1997-98, 2006-07, 2009-10. They get to 27.93C in winter on average. It's not exact...but ballpark? The colder it gets, the stronger the correlation I find to year over year trends for US temps. You guys get one cold month in the NE with that. Pretty good winter for the rest of the US though. You do have to warm up / shove the composite NW. The composite below - it's just too old / too far SE with the Atlantic so much colder than now.

Do we really think the models have any idea what will happen in the winter yet? August was supposed to be dry in the SW - a lot of places in the driest deserts are about to get locally 3-10 years of rain in a few days. You have record levels of precipitation available from Tonga and ocean heat globally. I really don't get the logic in these threads anymore. You guys all thought last year would be an East based La Nina. That was what you wanted, since it favors a cold East so you didn't look at forcing. Now this year, everything looks like an East-based El Nino that will eventually collapse toward a basin wide or Modoki look sometime in Feb-May. That's dis-favorable, so you all go to forcing as the crutch. I don't think it's a lock that this event transitions quickly enough to get severe cold and snow in the East. The looks that resemble Jan-Mar 2010 will probably intermittently occur in late January to early March. Is it going to matter? The entire northern half of the continent is going to be flooded with very warm (50s?) air from late Nov to late January. We're still paralleling 1982 broadly in three month periods. The Norman, Paul, and especially Olivia East Pacific hurricanes brought unusual heavy rain to Baja / US California. Summer 1982 was very hot centered on the TX/MX border, with most of the rest of the US seasonal to cool. You don't have this shit with the dying hurricanes bringing heavy rain into the SW US in the Modoki El Ninos. Its years like 1982, 1997, 2015 that have it.

I'm starting to work on my winter outlook. Locally, a lot of the driest Summers come before fluky heavy snow or major cold events in October-November. These are the driest "monsoons" locally (i.e. 6/15-9/30) since 1931 - excluding 2023. 1947, 1953, 1976, 1979, 1983, 2000, 2016, 2019, 2020 all had at least some fall snow. 1947, 1953, 2016, 2019, 2020 all had record snow/rain events, with 1976, 1983, 2000, 2020 all seeing major cold snaps (highs in the 30s Nov 1983, lows in the teens in October 2020 with record snow to Mexico, record cold in September 2020 as well, and then the major cold waves of November 2000 and 1976, including a low of -7F in Nov 1976). Additionally, 1960, 1989, 2003, 2011 are very wet in October. Pretty decent odds we'll finish in the bottom 20 for the monsoon rain. A lot of these years actually have pretty powerful Blue Norther events as well. 2 2003-09-30 1.46 0 3 1953-09-30 1.53 0 4 2011-09-30 1.72 0 5 1960-09-30 1.81 0 6 1948-09-30 1.88 0 7 1962-09-30 2.14 0 8 1956-09-30 2.28 0 9 1989-09-30 2.30 0 10 2000-09-30 2.31 0 11 2020-09-30 2.62 0 12 1947-09-30 2.73 0 13 1979-09-30 2.77 0 14 2019-09-30 2.87 0 15 1954-09-30 2.88 0 16 1983-09-30 2.94 0 17 2016-09-30 3.09 0 18 1976-09-30 3.10 0 19 1951-09-30 3.12 0 - 1950-09-30 3.12 0

I don't find much about the US patterns this Summer to be too inconsistent with a developing El Nino. Warmth in Nino 3.4 above a certain point weakens and/or delays monsoon progression and is a weak hot signal for TX/NM. We're the most sensitive/responsive place in the US to ENSO in a statistical sense. We're heading into an El Nino with two dominant patterns. When the subsurface cools, the Midwest will be a bit cool, with heat elsewhere, particularly in the SW US and New England. June and August, with subsurface warming/without subsurface cooling, are colder West/East to about the Continental Divide and Mississippi River, with TX and the Plains warmer. As the cold air seasonally pushes down against the subtropical ridges, that hot area should retreat to the Mexican plateau and the US will be mostly cold. How often is the subsurface going to warm in the winter though? That's the question. Probably not more than one big push. The subsurface warming has been the dominant pattern since last Fall, and has corresponded with persistently intense periods of cold and snow in the West, notably November 2022 and March 2023. We've had over half a year of warming of the subsurface already since last Fall. It can't continue for much longer. I'm very much in the warm camp for the winter. But you should have pretty severe cold pushes when the subsurface does warm. That's the only reason I've been toying with including 2009-10 at low weight.

PDO was still near record negative readings for July too: -1.86 https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO Some of the +IOD matches are also good QBO matches (1972, 2019) by the way, and a couple have negative / neutral PDO (1972, 2019 setups for the cold season.

The Australians have the Indian Ocean Dipole going solidly positive. The +IOD (cold by Indonesia, warm in the Indian Ocean), is not forecast to be crazy, but it is positive looking. It tends to peak in Fall too. The El Nino with +IOD years are something like 1963-64, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1994-95, 1997-98, 2006-07, 2015-16, 2019-20. If we're "driving the same road" as those years, you'd expect to see some familiar landmarks. Unusual heat wave like Mexico had in June 1982: Check Very warm waters off Peru like 1997? Check Record all-time daily and monthly Summer heat in the Southwest like in June 1994? Check Horrible global heat waves like in 2015? Check El Nino following a cold Western winter in a La Nina like in 1972? Check 2006 is the worst match of the bunch - weak El Nino, cold Summer SW US, strong monsoon, etc. But 1963 was quite hot in July as well.

The new MEI looks at 30N-30S from 70W to 100E. So you're including the -PDO and IOD in the calculation essentially as anti +ENSO signals. The older MEI btw is a near identical match to years like 2003, 1953, and 1979 that had notorious heat waves in developing El Nino / near-El Nino years. The MEI is like anything else, it tells you recent conditions. So Jun-Jul 2012 was apparently a stronger El Nino than Jun-July 2009. Another year with major heat waves anyway. 1986-87 is a simple example of an MEI in Jun-July that went from +0.4 but eventually got to +2.1 in 1987. If you look at actual maps, we've had the subtropical and northern stream jet over NM simultaneously in August for a few moments. That's not exactly a great indicator that the processes that might juice up the subtropical jet...like an El Nino are weak. This was a discussion from the local NWS a few days ago. I don't really recall seeing the subtropical jet over me outside of Oct-May, which is the cold season here. .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 144 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023 It`s not often the polar and subtropical jet streams phase with one another so close to northern NM during early August. At any rate, while low-level Gulf moisture seeps its way westward into the middle and lower RGV behind a backdoor front, a westerly wind speed max in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, will help trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms for all but the northern quarter of the state this afternoon into early evening. These two meteorological features will combine with daytime heating to generate mainly scattered late morning to afternoon showers and thunderstorms over much of central NM

The major cool-off / wetter period we're seeing now in New Mexico, back to seasonal conditions, is consistent with the subsurface flat-lining. Once we get a burst in subsurface temps, it should get very cold pretty quickly. But I don't really expect the flat subsurface period to end for a bit. I know everyone likes to talk about how warm the Indian Ocean warm pool is v. the ENSO regions...but surely the incredible heat in the Gulf of Mexico matters too? There have been 100F observed waters near Florida this Summer. Indian Ocean is nowhere near that warm. Small places off Western Mexico are also super warm.

The actual 2023 US temperature profile looks a lot like 1991 and 1982 in the sequential three month "seasons" since 1/1. No one has really noticed because the MJO cycle has been different all year. So the months individually are not great matches. But seasonally, Jan-Mar, Feb-Apr, Mar-May, etc are close to 2023. Especially if you add a degree or so for 1982. The research I've seen on volcanism suggests that the ITCZ moves north/south of normal ENSO positions in response to major tropical eruptions. So it makes sense that you have essentially half of the "correct" rainfall response at the equator in July. I would say 2018 had half the response as well - but in the opposite way. Dry by Indonesia, no wet signal to the east. Essentially, the "wetness" that is moved off the equator in the older strong events is now at the equator - that's been my working theory. The research is that +aerosol net eruptions push the wetness north - so with Tonga I've assumed the opposite. For reference, here is 1972-73, and roughly what I expect for winter - The CFS moves the wettest area in the tropics east through Feb-Apr. I think it's just a bit slow - what it has for Jan-Mar is very similar to what I just showed. The Canadian has the 2009-10 look, of 175W as the center-point for DJF instead of 160W.

To be honest, there isn't much support for the Hadley Circulation definitively expanding from Global Warming either. I don't really care what the Tip guy says, IPCC says it's still behaving within natural variation in the Northern Hemisphere. Go look into the section for the Hadley Cell. It's page 37 at the bottom. The Hadley and Walker cells really seem to behave fairly independently, and honestly the southern portion is probably responding more violently to the QBO because of the hole in the Ozone layer. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter03.pdf The human-induced change has not yet clearly emerged out of the internal variability range in the Northern Hemisphere (Quan et al., 2018; Grise et al., 2019), whereas the trend in the annual-mean Southern Hemisphere edge is outside the 5th–95th percentile range of internal variability in CMIP6 in three out of the four reanalyses (Figure 3.16b). For the Southern Hemisphere summer when the simulated human influence is strongest, the 1981–2000 trend in three out of the four reanalyses falls outside the 5th–95th percentile range of internal variability (Figure 3.16c; L. Tao et al., 2016; Grise et al., 2018, 2019). So much of the discussion in here is idiotic. It doesn't matter if the Hadley Cell is wobbling, contracting, expanding, moving east/west and impacting ENSO development. The vast majority of the forum is outside the rising air / sinking air placement of the circulation, whether it's advanced north/south/east/west by a few tenths of a degree. IPCC has it moving 0.1-0.3 degrees per decade on the net. That's not a big deal for someone at 42N. Your weather in the East is determined not by ENSO strength but by placement, as that links to the PDO and other Pacific patterns that make you warm or cold. RONI is just another toy for estimating strength using poorly defined estimates for how the other oceans should be behaving in the tropics.

I keep trying to tell you this but you seem to miss out: ENSO was never predictive for temperatures or precipitation in your region. The correlations for RONI are even worse. Go look - I dare you. We both know you won't.

The 'RONI' stuff you guys are talking about looks like it is pretty useless for seasonal forecasting. The correlations to anything you'd want to forecast for Fall/Winter/Spring are lower than the SST figures. In other words, PNA, WPO/EPO, PDO, temperatures, whatever - it all corresponds more cleanly to actual temperatures and especially changes in temperatures. The other more basic issue with using RONI is that CPC has no actual idea how warm the tropics are in a centered sense in the current 30-year period....because only half the period has happened. They're essentially guessing how warm the tropics are outside 120-170W, 5N-5S should be in La Nina v. an El Nino for 2011-2040 and then subtracting out the current warmth/coolness in the tropics against that imagined baseline. I think it's generally understood that the Indian Ocean at low latitudes warms faster than the others. So for me I just to try carefully match up the Indian Ocean tendency with the Pacific. You need the entire circumference of the tropical oceans to be ballpark in terms of tendencies to have a shot at a decent seasonal forecast.

Still looks like we're on target for a ~2.0C warm up in Nino 3.4 year/year in Dec-Feb. Rare historically for single year warms up at that magnitude. It's a good list of years for me: 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2009-10. I updated my statistical testing today. Albuquerque winter (DJF) highs respond very strongly (0.3 r-squared) to y/y changes in Nino 3.4. Spring is a strong response too (0.22 r-squared). But when you look at the month by month data, it's really only December and April that respond in a statistically significant way (p<0.05). I was surprised to see how many cold Decembers we have following hot July El Nino years. R-squared for 25 El Ninos by y/y change is about 0.34 in December, for highs locally - a relationship that would occur by chance like 0.2% of the time. If we finish with a very dry (under 50% of normal) of July-Sept precipitation locally, the favored subsequent wet periods locally are October & April, with an all-or-nothing tendency for both November & March. The look for the big "warm up" El Nino years is essentially the opposite of now, where it has been very hot in the blue area and cold in the yellow area. But it does match as the flip of the +PDO, -ENSO years I've looked at. It's the type of look I expect for winter overall, though I am still refining details.

July subsurface for 100-180W fell back to +1.0 from 1.4 in June. Pretty major drop actually. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt I've been wondering how the hell we pulled off a record hot month here, but sure enough, you had a big drop off in 1980 too: 7/1980 ABQ: 99.1F (mean high) 7/2023 ABQ: 99.0F (mean high) June/July 1980: +1.17 / +0.27 June/July 2023: +1.40 / +1.02 Since 1979, 1980 & 2023 are the only years in the +1 to +1.5 range that had major 100-180w subsurface heat content drops June-July. Jun-Jul 1997 did too, but really, it's less of a shock. The 1997 fall off is a ~17% loss in subsurface heat, but 1980 and 2023 were much larger on a percentage basis. One of the other great heat wave years globally, 2003, also had a huge loss in subsurface heat from July to August. We're still in a weird spot for timing of developing events so the subsurface is volatile. 1982, 1989, and 2012 all have very similar subsurface readings in July, and the winters are...just a wee bit different. This is a decent blend for May-July subsurface conditions - not really a match v. models for August though. 1.11 / 1.40 / 1.02 2023 2.01 / 2.25 / 1.83 1997 2.01 / 2.25 / 1.83 1997 2.01 / 2.25 / 1.83 1997 0.07 / 0.24 / 0.13 2019 0.07 / 0.24 / 0.13 2019 0.88 / 0.86 / 0.81 2018 -------------------------- 1.18 / 1.35 / 1.09 Blend

Even with that look, most of the Southern US isn't cold. I don't know how to explain it but the Canadian looks off to me. Should be wetter with that look too. Canadian does have a -PDO still for winter. The warm tongue east of Japan remains very pronounced, and continues to warm on Tropical Tidbits week after week. Looking back, the El Ninos with -PDO or neutral PDO conditions in winter tend to be sandwiched between La Ninas / cold Neutrals. I don't really expect this to be a double El Nino, so that makes sense to me (we've just had two in an SST sense: 2018-19/2019-20, and 2014-15/2015-16, and they aren't real common). This event is going to peak and weaken pretty early. If that's the case, the patterns will do weird shit as ENSO weakens if the weakening is uneven. The patterns late winter and beyond will behave erratically depending on what weakens where, relative to everything else. The subsurface in this event has already shown that it can weaken without immediately limiting the surface. July cooled all month as an example. El Nino marches on at the surface. March is a good candidate for a particularly large spread between SSTs and the subsurface like early 1973 or 1988 or 2005. So that remains my pick for a particularly wacky month. Saw this making the rounds as well -

If the CFS is even halfway right about a wet August here...March should be pretty interesting again. Wet August / Wet October in the Southwest is a very strong storm signal for the following March. Often tied to an MJO impulse in the right spot. Last year had the wettest Aug/Oct combo here in like 20 years, preceding the madness of March. The only comparable period was 2018 in recent years, with March 2019 somewhat similar to last March. 8/1-->9/15-->10/31-->12/15-->2/1-->3/15 is your typical MJO timing cycle 8/15-->9/30-->11/15-->12/31-->2/15->3/31 is often a bit off 8/31-->10/15-->11/30-->1/15-->3/1 also usually a bit off Here is what I found a long time ago in El Nino looking at solar activity and March snowfall. This is observable in many high elevation Western cities. The correlation isn't super strong, but we have an outside shot at finishing around 175-225 sunspots per month for July 2023-June 2024. Recent El Ninos like 2018-19, 2019-20 were both near 0 sunspots, when you'd expect only an inch or so of snow. ABQ is something like 1/36 for low-solar heavy snow in March v. 18/56 in high-solar years. "Heavy" here means 3"+ in March. Guess what year the 13.9" March is in?

August on the CFS looks like a cooler version of the analogs I like for winter. Good sign. Also now shows up as a pretty wet month in the Southwest. That's consistent with high solar activity. I read a paper a long time ago talking about the mechanisms for how solar activity can modulate the onset/peak/weakening of monsoon timing in India, Western Mexico, West Africa and a few other places. When I looked locally, I was able to replicate the effects. Above 100-150 sunspots annualized, there basically are no years with active July monsoons in the Southwest US. We were flirting with 200+ sunspots a few days in the past month. When I run my model to try to fix/modernize the issues with 1972-73, it essentially comes up with 1991-92/2009-10 as the closest ENSO match. But since volcanic, solar, and Atlantic conditions are fairly bad matches to 1972-73 and 2009-10, 1991-92 actually works quite well at fixing the issues. I'll likely throw in 1997-98 at weak weight to drag the center of the East east of 2009-10, and then subtract out 1993-94 for the winter to fix the PDO and warm up the Atlantic more. For now 1993-94 isn't really an anti-log (it was literally warmer in 1993 than 2023 in Nino 3.4 as recently as May). One thing to watch is the PDO. It now looks just negative of neutral to me. Nino 1.2 tends to lead changes in the PDO areas. I don't think we'll see a complete breakdown in the negative features of the PDO until at least the Fall. But it is possible it flips at least somewhat positive in Sept/Oct.