raindancewx

The very high ACE / active 2017 hurricane season had only 10 cold days in Albuquerque from Nov-Feb. Should match or beat that total this week,~1/6 of the way into the Nov-Feb period. Good sign for the correlations posted in my initial post. CPC has bought into the "cold sandwich" idea for the month now. I hope the last week or so of the month is enough to hold the warmth about where it is now. There were all kinds of severe heat waves and cold snaps in November in my analogs - it was quite a challenge to figure out what the hell was going to happen when it was blended back in October.

Signal was there in May for rapid improvements in moisture out here.

I mostly asked because your profile lists you as a man in his 70s. Probably not the worst idea in the world to detail the way things in your research work with instructions for how to use it, and what you'd like to see tested further in the future. I keep pretty detailed notes of weather things I expect to happen in the 2030s/2040s/2050s/2060s if I'm still alive. That way even if I die early someone can go through it all and see if I was just another crazy crank in the end.

I'm pretty convinced the cold dumps are going to continue into the West, or at least the Rockies for the next four months. The mechanism(s) for that of course will vary, since the PNA/AO/NAO/EPO/WPO all are basically irrelevant for temps in a correlation sense where I am until early to mid-January. The years I mentioned with the severe NE US heat in cold-ENSO are actually fairly cold nationally in November on balance, and then typically cold in the West, and warmer East. 1938 in particular interests me since Fiona was not that different from the system in 9/1938. One thing that would bug me about 2010 is the WPO actually. I'm pretty sure it's consistently negative that Nov-Mar year, and there have been lots of pretty powerful lows in the NW Pacific, I'd imagine it's going to finish positive this November, and that often ties in with stuff that happens in the West, Plains and South pretty directly. It really seems to weaken cold in otherwise cold patterns. By the way: I saw Weatherworks has a winter outlook up without you. I think you should start a new service and call it..."Weatherjerks"

I'm pretty sure my analogs were -PNA for December, but if the WPO/AO/NAO are positive like I expect with a +PNA it hardly even changes the real ground outcomes v. the temp profile I had. PNA is not a strong Dec temp signal in the US, especially for where 80% of the forum lives. You can see outside 2004, 2003, these are generally low-ACE years, and near all are El Ninos. Throw out the hyper active Atlantic years and you get this, which is I think what you mean by "fake -PNA", hard to say your posts are hard to read clearly. Some colder years like 2007 in there, but still, pretty warm.

What is the point of your posts? I do enjoy weather. Why can't you?

It's not, but are you going to cry if I've already doubled your total for the year? I mean, you're seeing record heat and late season tropical activity. You can make the case you guys haven't even entered Fall yet, it's more of a September pattern. If I saw a path to decent snows for the area, I'd mention it. Last year at this time I pointed out that 150+ ACE seasons are often (50/50) good for your area, and then DC got 13 inches of snow - near average. So it's not like I'm incapable of seeing good outcomes for you, I know that's hard to understand, but there are actual long-range indicators that work for snow in various areas of the US. You're just too lazy to bother investigating any of them.

I've been meaning to ask you for a while - when you say energy levels - what exactly are you measuring? Also, how? I'm always interested in adding new datasets to test for statistical relationships, but your stuff to my knowledge is not defined on the board.

My issue with using 1996-97 was how rapidly that year collapsed into the big 1997 El Nino. By early 1997, the subsurface was super warm, and you got some real interesting patterns, since it was developing from east to west. I wanted to use that year. But I don't quite trust how it played out, it's been different enough that I threw it out. A lot of the cold-ENSO years with similar early November heat waves for the NE US are kind of interesting - 1938, 1948, 1959 were years I saw today for similar Boston heat. I tried to pick Fall years that had major heat and cold waves. I know 2016/2020 were both very warm early November among my group, and then 1984, 2011, 2020 got pretty cold mid-month. Mid Nov 1984/2011/2020 is actually pretty decent for how mid-month will look as the cold drains into the US. 1984 goes to this, but still manages to be pretty warm in December in the east as an example for how I see it playing out. The purples are -5 (light) and -7 (dark) in degrees Fahrenheit. My gut is once the hurricane hits Florida, you'll see some stuff evolve differently on the models for late month and beyond.

I have some research on what the most active Novembers in the Atlantic correlate to later in the season. But have to see if the system shown on the models blows up as hits Florida as I suspect it will. I was expecting about 10 ACE for November, but we'll probably get to 15-20, since we're near 6-7 so far I believe. Over 25 in November is vanishingly rare, so I do think this little burst of activity is the end of it. I'm a bit jealous of the eastern warmth - we haven't been in the mid/upper 70s here in close to three weeks already. Have already had to clean off snow on my car twice. Not a fan of dewpoints in the 60s though.

You all should come visit. It's been a lovely Fall so far.

I defined "cold" and "very cold" days in Albuquerque as 5F or 10F below the daily average. My research indicated that ~100 ACE this year would translate to about 25-35 "cold days" from Nov-Feb, around 1 in 4 days for that period. So far, we're four days into November...and today was quite cold - with a high of 48 and a low of 33 so far, certainly more than five degrees below average, and consistent with the idea, as the average temperature is about 50 this time of year. I wanted to track this live to see how the distribution shakes out. "Cold" / -5F or colder v. daily average days in Nov-Feb: 25-35 expected. Will update throughout the season. Forecast analogs had a 7/10 frequency of a cold snap in November where a five day period averaged at least 5F below average, with each of the five days cold. We've achieved that now (11/12-11/17, and ongoing). November: 11/4 (48/32, -10.4) 11/5 (58/29, -6.5) 11/11 (48/26, -10.5) 11/12 (54/24, -8.1) 11/14 (49/32, -5.7) 11/15 (49/26, -8.3) 11/16 (44/26, -10.4) 11/17 (47/23, -10.0) 11/18 (40/28, -10.6) 11/19 (46/24, - 9.2) 11/20 (50/23, -7.0) 11/22 (49/25, -6.0) 11/23 (55/20, -5.1) 11/24 (47/25, -6.2) December: 12/13 (39/24, -5.4) 12/16 (37/22, -6.9) 12/17 (37/16, -9.8) 12/18 (36/22, -7.7) 12/23 (41/19, -5.9) January: 1/19 (41/21, -6.7) 1/22 (44/22, -5.0) 1/25 (41/25, -5.4) 1/26 (40/19, -9.0) 1/27 (43/17, -8.7) February: 2/9 (40/27, -7.2) 2/10 (43/21, -8.9) 2/11 (49/21, -6.1) 2/15 (41/25, -8.9) 2/16 (34/19, -15.6) 2/17 (44/17, -11.8) 2/27 (55/21, -6.8) "Very Cold" -10F or colder v. daily average days in Nov-Feb: November: 11/4 (48/32, -10.4) 11/11 (48/26, -10.5) 11/16 (44/26, -10.4) 11/17 (47/23, -10.0) 11/18 (40/28, -10.6) February: 2/16 (34/19, -15.6) 2/17 (44/17, -11.8)

The actual analogs Larry Cosgrove uses are pretty warm honestly. https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/ZM4CTyKXDSE 1992-93, 2012-13 (x2), 2013-14 (x2), 2016-17, 2021-22 "synoptic analogs" (I do like March 1993 in there, as there should be some very powerful systems this March, but not a fan of 1992-93 otherwise). The issue with years like 1992, 2000, 1985, etc that people throw around is you had widespread, month long near to record US cold in many places that just is not going to be verified at all this year. 1950-51, 1955-56, 1956-57, 1971-72, 1975-76, 1985-86, 1999-00, 2011-12, 2021-22 for ENSO I used 2011, 2012, 2016, 2021 at various weights - so I agree with some of these years. I thought 2013 was a pretty good analog for the Fall in the Summer, that was how I came up with the "wet Oct-Dec" period for the West back in June, but I don't like it for winter. I saw Paul Pastelok the Bastardi long-range replacement at Accuweather say in an interview the other day he thought 2011-12 & 2013-14 as a blend was a decent guess for the winter. Not particularly blend-able years though, outside both being cold where I am in Dec - given the very different Feb/Mar outcomes as an example. These are the Cosgrove years at the link - at his weights:

Want to store this here for posterity. I've never tried to score precipitation outlooks on the models at this range -

Can't remember the exact time frame, but I think there is research saying that when the MJO gets stuck in 6/7 for a while, as it has been, you see blocking (-NAO) in 2-3 weeks as the pattern loosens up. That would be consistent with ideas for a late November period of blocking. All that said, +/-NAO isn't much of a warm or cold signal in the US in November compared to other months - it's broadly irrelevant outside the far SE portion of the US (FL/GA/eastern NC/SC). Locally, the +NAO is actually a decent wet signal in November - so I'm hoping it remains positive. Part of why I had Nov quiet locally is the expectation of a brief -NAO period. Also, the Euro plume had Nino 3.4 around, but a touch warm of -1.0C for October. I know people are obsessed with calling these events moderate, but come on, we're coming up on 15 years without a 25.5C or colder La Nina (-1.0C v. 1951-2010), and the weeklies have yet to fall below 25.7C at any point this Fall. Almost all La Ninas fall to 25.7C at some point...they kind of have to, to be La Nina.

I've been expecting +AO/+NAO/+WPO conditions for December (net) since August. There is a pretty strong correlation between Atlantic ACE and December blocking tendencies. Low ACE heavily disfavors blocking and a +WPO look in December statistically. All that said, I think we get back to MJO phase five late November, and then there is a week or two with blocking that probably ends very early December, after the warm period coming for the East. If the models are right at all about November precipitation, the Oct-Dec period I've been targeting for a wet West is going verify very well.

Your move, "Dec 2000 / Dec 2010" crew.

You guys are often (rightly) skeptical of the stuff I post with ACE, so I wanted to give an example of how it is supposed to work when you have a close match for timing and intensity tendencies: ACE: June / Jul / Aug / Sept / Oct / Nov 1988: 0 / 0 / 2 / 72 / 24 / 5 2022: 1 / 2 / 0 / 76 / 5 / ? Unlikely to hold as a match into November, but I do think a lot of similar looks to 1988 will show with different timing occasionally. I had it as a C tier analog for the winter. The main reason it should break is the MJO died in Nov 1988, but it will likely remain active this November. But for now, both late Oct 1988 and late Oct 2022 have the MJO fairly active in 6/7. October 1988 October 2022 (so far)

Pending the brief flare-up that should develop, June-October ACE is likely to match most closely with 1981, as 1988 has fallen off a bit (it was more active in October). So I fully expect another storm or two in November. Outside November 1932 (70+), you rarely get more than 25 ACE in November. It's not uncommon for powerful storms to spin up in November, they just don't last very long. I'm expecting around 10 ACE for November. Four ACE is average since 1950.

The subsurface looks like it is making another push as of this week. I suspect this is beginning of the final push that should peak 11/15-12/15. Here is an update on the "Don Sutherland curse", where we get 400% of rain for an extended period after he complains it is four degrees above average for a week. Still looks like Scotland here to me. I've been seeing all sorts of tadpoles, chipmunks, coyotes and stray animals in the wake of the wettest monsoon here in close to a decade, and then an extremely wet October as well. Nice to be losing drought conditions for once too. Especially since there are decent wet signals for us locally in the months to come.

I wanted to briefly elaborate on the 1/20-2/20 period. If there is going to be a cold or stormy period in the East, it's likely then. It's ~2 harmonic / MJO cycles from now, and we've just experienced a pretty cold October look for much of the East. My main issue is the harmonic movements we've been seeing lately should start to fall apart as the La Nina collapses in January-April. September was active enough relative to the rest of the hurricane season that there should be both repeating dominant and recessive looks in the winter.

I was travelling through the middle of the country recently and asking people about the driest years on the Mississippi. That's kind of like a "memory" reservoir of recent US weather - snow, heat, rain, etc. A lot of the people told me that the lowest levels for river are years like 1988 - so I do think I'm on the right track with a decent winter out here. https://earthsky.org/earth/mississippi-river-hits-record-low-levels-2022/ I had a bunch of stuff like this in my forecast, but I trimmed it out, since we have virtually no one on here who cares about water trends in the middle of the US. Though the low level of the Mississippi this year is unprecedented in modern history, it’s normal, however, to see lower levels in the mighty river at this time of year, around areas such as Memphis. To be sure, during late summer and early fall, the waters can run low after hot and dry summers. Previously, the low-level record at Memphis was at -10.7 feet on July 10, 1988. Later, two other record lows happened on August 30, 2006, and September 19, 2012.

Interesting seeing the MJO freeze around 6/7 on the RMM method. It's right in the zone where the ~31C water goes to ~28C, like 87F to 80F roughly. My assumption for winter is that the spot will continue to see slow MJO progression through winter. For reference 6/7 is generally favorable for Western US cold if the thunderstorms enhance/get stuck there a lot. October for both US temps/precip has behaved like a pretty canonical MJO phase five month. 6/7 aren't that cold in the West in December - but I do think we'll likely get to 8-1 or start in 5 which are colder. The timing is generally MJO +45 days = same MJO as now. So early December (6/7) warm, then maybe 8/1 later - that would tie in well with my low-ACE idea where mid-Dec to mid-Jan is colder in the SW US in lower ACE years. 6/7 January is pretty cold Utah/Nevada with cold shifting SW to NW 6/7 February is pretty cold West

It looks fairly similar to 2012 if I remember right. I vaguely remember thinking the Fall looked like a progression of 1988/2001/2012 but I haven't looked in a week or so.

Calendar year to date is wettest since 2015 locally. Drought has been reduced massively. Hills look like the Scottish Highlands. Also: Fairly likely to finish October with top ten to near record rains in the city. Non-El nino years with heavy rain August & October.