osubrett2
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Everything posted by osubrett2
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Went for a morning run in Bexley. Maybe 10 minutes of light snow and sleet. Then turned to all rain. Got back home in Clintonville and it’s all sleet currently.
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Most models had temps in the high 20s to start today, but all 4 reporting airports in Franklin County are between 31 and 33. The HRRR is picking up on that and brings in quite a bit of pure rain at 38F during the afternoon. No other model had CMH topping 33 (maybe 34).
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Franklin County's last Warning was 3/1/2015, snapping the streak of 1,419 days. I believe all surrounding counties (unsure of Licking actually) have had Warnings since.
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GFS is 1 or 2 mb stronger than the NAM, brings in warmer 850s for freezing rain along I-70 and south. Snow totals still look good for I-70 and north.
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3k has a little more ice just south of I-70 as 850s are warmer and some patches briefly warm above freezing. Overall snowmap is extremely similar to the 12k, amounts just slightly less.
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Yeah, I'm not seeing an obvious/large area of ice. 850s are the same temp, if not colder, than surface temps for most of the area.
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The deform band merely passes through W-E instead of pivoting NE as the trough stays positively titled. But with the colder trends, not sure it's totally needed to get moderate/large accumulations.
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NAM's initial thump "crushes" I-70. Edit: "crushes" being relative for our lack of big storms haha
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NAM coming in a few mb stronger and north, but it's colder along I-70.
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Took a peek at the UKMET QPF map on the Upstate NY sub, and it’s definitely similar to it’s previois solutions. Maybe slightly SE from prior runs.
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Critical thicknesses are messy, but has .50-.75” QPF. More out your way/Eastern OH.
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Essentially what the Euro’s output has been for a few days, just not as wet which is not surprising.
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February 2015? Last warning was 2/28/2015-3/1/2015.
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The cutoff between Licking and Muskingum County is the difference in forecasts between ILN and PBZ. The CWA border is also ID'ed south of Millersburg/Canton/Youngstown. ILN issued 2 banks of WSW. First, 4-8" along I-70 and I-71. Second, 6-10" for the typical far NW counties south of Lima. I agree with their "initial" assessment.
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Based on this map issued by CLE, it appears ILN is backing down on the higher totals for I-70 and shifted the heaviest totals north.
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Easy for you to say, Mr. "Well NW of I-71" lol
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For the UKMET, I'm curious to see how/when the snow falls. Is it all snow start to finish? Is it snow to mix back to snow? Is it picking up on the "deform" band late Sat/early Sun like the 12k and 3k NAMs were? If so, that might be our "main event".
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I assume ILN will update this, dependent on the Euro. In their AFD as someone mentioned earlier, they sided strongly with the Euro. Or we can see a repeat of the 1/3/14 storm with egg on their face. With as little as 12 hours before the storm, they had warnings issued along the 71 corridor for an all snow accumulation of ~8" when NO model supported that.
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Eh, I don't know what I think about this. It's definitely drier. SLP from Louisville to south of Pittsburgh (before a wonky jaunt SE) is concerning. Resolution is obviously not helping with definition of the thermals.
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6z was perfect for us. All critical thermal profiles to stay all snow remained a decent distance south of I-70.
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Unfortunately no. Just some PT work for a financial institution. Hopefully FT soon. But regarding the NAM, the snows for the I-70 crew come Saturday night into Sunday morning. Late afternoon and evening, the mix line is just north of I-70 before crashing.
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Was just about to comment on the strength. We'll see if that is a trend with the others or NAM being NAM. Going to analyze the 2m, 850, and 925 temps in a second, but I'm at least liking the deform band that is now showing.
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The Euro can’t get much better for the Cincinnati, Dayton, and Central Ohio folks...
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Feeling pretty optimistic for 4-5” in Franklin County.
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Decent track for us in OH, but an already weak storm peters out before the coastal low takes over. We’ll see but I’m not overly excited yet.
