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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    Had that sky-cloud pattern here about 7 days ago. It's been tropical now.
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    Yay! Wonderful, how are you? I feel there is always potential.
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    Geez that must be expensive and not much alcohol?
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    La Nina going in the Pacific subsurface.. I found a correlation of hurricane season subsurface vs surface 0.97 to 0.83 vs the 0.97 to 0.90. So it's a La Nina... but no severe wx season really, and a lot of blandness right now in the atmosphere will probably keep us away from Cat 4s or 5s.
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    Good picture. That's what I've been seeing the past 2 days with the clouds.
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    La Nina certainty looks like it's making a stand as per ENSO subsurface.. this is really easy: There will probably be some big potentials, subsurface is stronger in ENSO than surface conditions, re: hurricane season correlation. I would go more than 16 named storms.
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    Subsurface certainly looks like healthy La Nina.. it won't go there I think officially.. "Nuetral" global conditions are too prevalent (maybe we'll max out -0.5 to -0.7). https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.gif
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    This in the North Pacific/Alaska looks like a good +subsurface warming burst coming. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    The high rainfall increases chances for -NAO Winter..
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    I don't know, everyone is role playing I guess. (so someone would open up) It's pretty much a ridiculous thing to hold out hope at this point. It's long gone.. (silly in the context of truth.)
  11. StormchaserChuck!
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    The drought is in the upper atmosphere. Wait until towering cumulonibus start happening again and watch how Drought is at the surface.
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    Surface precipitable water is pretty much way above average to stay across the Northern Hemisphere, like +3 sigma.
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    I've seen it before. . the warm pool in Nino 4 may act as a polarity to Nino 3/3.4 down the line
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    Precipitable water of the Northern Hemisphere increased significantly in the Summer of 2016. June I think.
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    No sign of +PNA in the Pacific anytime soon. It will be interesting to see if a +subsurface wave develops in the coming time. Subsurface +3 is gone on TAO maps. (these are much more accurate than CPC). In my experience going back to the early 2000s this is a Neutral look.
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    Anyway, if you think that is bad, check this out It's been happening for so long...
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    me llamo
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    All of this El Nino stuff.. and it's completely going the other way right now. I think people get lost in climatology of yearly cycle perhaps.
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    North Pacific Hadley Cell being stretched north through most of July.. I think this rubber bands to a +PNA in the Winter. ENSO Neutral but may favor +PNA because of wave cycles of the last few years. Atlantic SSTs are -NAO in coming Winter and some other things like +precip in May Southeast/TN Valley support Winter -NAO I would go below average and snowy.
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    Tomorrow could be a good storm day. NAM shows activity during the day and at night. Day after a day like today is usually stormy.
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    Feels like a lot of activity coming,.. Atlantic is heating up, Will likely be no cooler SSTA's than last few years. Edit: Nice for this almost-June invest to be right in the hard of cold Atlantic water anomalies (since 1995).
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    Things have trended pretty strongly away from +AO today. Warmer at the surface trend looks to continue, perhaps significantly. I think there will be a lot of +500mb heights in the Arctic circle for July. Also, Pacific-squeezed north Hadley Cell sustainable rarely works in verification.. more blocking over the Pole.
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    Pretty hot, I wonder if we can get some instability to spark a storm like it would on hot July days, or the day after, past.
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    A little cooling now, in Nino 3.4. I've seen the trend before with subsurface and it supports neutralizing or cooling for the next few weeks to months.
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