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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    Wish I would have went colder in Chicago, NAO was the wild card.. it had been negative against trend-analogs going into this 4/6 months -EPO really hit it too. In October I said +EPO Winter's averaged 7 named storms that point on, and we had 0 then after 19 early.
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    hang back, hang back (it will-it always does) watch for it to get more cutoff/bombsouth though /snow north of Richmond though (5/9 Richmond-centered storms are in Dec)
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    So much for that +NAO projected LR, It's a -NAO pattern this year. Feb 7-9-2022 +NAO is a big test. (^The timing of this -NAO lifting out isn't going to match STJ energy.)
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    warmth is gravitating to the land, but it's a really good pattern. +AAM measures Earth momentum. Again, I like that cutoff piece for a snowstorm.
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    CPC maps are stronger, they have +6c in the central subsurface. history shows not much correlation, although 87-88 was negative in the subsurface during El Nino, and that was followed by a Strong La Nina. re: the storm, Well, it's 25 degrees right now.
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    If the 1st piece slows down/holds energy back..
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    We are heading into El Nino, it looks like I showed you the counter example, 1987-88 where the cold subsurface water during El Nino gave us a lot of southern jet High pressures. I think the warm bubble in the subsurface won't last past April-May, but it does directly correlate to +PNA conditions directly(when 165W-135W is warm-warming).
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    STJ moisture is good Jan 22-26 it looks like.
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    This is the one I'm looking at. If we have a -EPO/+PNA pattern the last week of January, this will be a big snowstorm probably.
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    STJ near Mexico GFS ens's are borderline going back to -PNA/something at Day 15, so we'll see
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    Let's see what's going on here at 98hrs This would be a great chance to trend west if not for this complete depletion of reverse-Dec -PNA. It's too strong otherside/+PNA. We miss it. NAO-PNA are running together wrt every storm. ^1040mb High pressure, we aren't even that cold believe it or not
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, Obviously when the -PNA comes back it's going to stick around for the Winter. Our window is small. I do have a +PNA signal 2-21/22-22 though.
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, let's see what is happening though
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    well, 90% of the population never sees snow. GW might be a program, too
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, warm pool should be centered in 2-3 weeks. surprised me. In this age of weather derivatives, etc. It should be interesting to see what happens, +PNA in La Nina +2-3 weeks from now (after what's already happening)?
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    -PNA for Feb, March, April, and May, I think. I have a +PNA signal for 2-21-2022 and 2-22-2022, and we have been reversing last year in the Pacific pretty good (strong -PNA February), but I think we will pull it off 4-month in a row after this.
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    STJ looks juicy for this one
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    Yes, I've been watching it for 4 years. What falls, not in 6 hours, but overall is reprented. Totals were always lower when that map was low. simple mmk
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    Don't underestimate this one.. even as starting as snow briefly, everyone loves a good +PNA(not going to trend warmer)
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, we're going to get less than 1".. 1-2" if we're lucky
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    here.. accurate totals b
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    Watch the gravity over the SW Rocky mountains/warm Denver over the next few years. (We really need a Strong El Nino to even things out) We had a peak -PDO in the 1950s, didn't even out until 72-73, (65-66 was a -PNA El Nino) so we'll see.
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    Like I said though, -PNA popped, pattern changes to cold after 36hrs.. which makes me feel less good that it hasn't happened already. It will happen though it's too short term, but blah
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    Surprise -PNA/SE ridge
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    Opening the borders of Canada?
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