Itstrainingtime

End of January question for the weather masses: We close out the month with the sad reality that we've received 33% of the amount of snow that Atlantic City has season to date. There's been more snow north, west, south, and east of our area... So - would you prefer a winter like this with lots of tracking with little ROI; or, would you rather have little to track so that everyone is losing out? Me? I would pick the first option though admittedly it's getting a little shaky. This past weekend's storm started to wear on me a little. Even though we got exactly what I expected, this winter was to be lacking in big east coast storms. We JUST missed out on a big kahuna. Even Philly received about 8" (7.5" at PHL, 8.9" in NE Philly) Shift that 100 miles west and I wouldn't be asking the question that I did this morning. February is our snowiest month of the year so there's that...but there's no guarantee that we'll get anything. After 15-20 FEET of snow fell on the Sierra during the last half of December, they are going to finish January with a complete shutout and nothing on the horizon. Some winters, even snowy places just don't snow. Will this be a winter of lots of frustration and near misses or will things even out as Blizz suggests?

As ugly as that is...those areas of blue in the Catskills is far worse than us. Those areas probably average double-triple to what we do.

The Ukie also took a notable step back from 0z. Oz had the axis of heaviest snow over the southern border counties. Best snows at 12z moved north 75 miles.

Going to publicly admit defeat on this call - 24.8 here approaching 3pm. Not a good prediction on my part. LOL

GFS doesn't look very good to me throughout the entire run. Frontal boundary gets hung up and actually retreats allowing waves to run west of us. Low in the great lakes isn't helping. The whole pattern is losing it's wintry look (on the GFS) over the past 48 hours. Also looks like this morning's Euro regressed as well.

Sunny and 23 already. Think I should easily reach the 30s today.

Was out most of the day and was wondering how things were going up there. Saw one report from Taunton of 29.5" recently but not sure that Logan is going to come close to their record. One thing that seems to have verified was the wind - saw a list this morning of gusts over hurricane force.

Reading reports that the band you highlighted in your previous post is producing 4-6"/hour rates. That'll add to totals fairly quickly. Okay - my Uncle is reporting 13.5" in Lewes. Cousin is reporting 14" about 2 miles inland from Bethany.

NWS now calling for up to 30" in Boston, which would be #1 all time...

Jealous of the moderate snow reports - nothing remotely close to that here. VERY light snow (pixie dust really) that would take hours to get to 1".

Not quite half of that here, but the little snow we do have has made the roads a mess.

Snowing and accumulating on all surfaces here. 30.6

Radar is showing that the returns in southern PA are collapsing south into MD/VA. Some SN+ obs coming from the DC area now, but it's not moving our way. In fact, the sun has returned here. Also - Kyle Elliott released a video today - he's thinking that Boston has an excellent shot at breaking their all time record for a single storm. Record is 27.6" which is far lower than I would have thought.

CTP just dropped my forecast from 1-3" to "an inch is possible."

GFS looked remarkably dry and cold after a few days of very encouraging runs.

Admittedly, I didn't look at guidance myself for their area and was going more on perception from their thread and others. It "seemed" like they were expecting a top 3 storm all time, but feelings can't really be quantified. LOL

Okay, that makes sense now. I was going to say, there has been a crap ton of those maps that have shown SE NE getting 30-50" of snow the past few days. I didn't realize that other 12z guidance today was tamed down from that.

Euro 0z this morning: (That's over 45" there)

6z Euro this morning:

I guess I'm wrong. I thought earlier Euro runs (and a few others as well) were well over 30" in eastern Mass. If I spoke in error, I apologize. I've been reading for the past 36 hours that New England was preparing for a top 3 storm, which 12-18" most certainly would not be.

(I shouldn't admit this because not many would get it...but I have had an annual pass to Strasburg in the past. I was a part of more than one 611 excursion) Yes, the weather. It's 33 with white rain. At least my expectations were pretty close to what I see outside, which was nothing. LOL

"Itstrainingtime" I am a HUGE steam train fan I do a lot of regulatory compliance and personal development training at work It's also a nod to "training" storms I combined 3 passions that all had synergy in one name.

Let's be completely honest here - if you woke up with CTP forecasting 30-40" for you, and saw it was reduced to 12-18" a few hours later...I think you'd not be on the "I would take it for sure" campaign.

They do, but they went from a top 3 all time ever (which is saying something for them) to a much more pedestrian nor'easter pretty fast.