Itstrainingtime

An average season at Main Lodge (8900' elevation) is 206". They are at 203" for the season, so even with a shutout January and NO foreseeable end to the snow drought, they should go above normal since their season runs into May. I think the issue is that pretty much all of the 203" came in 20 days during the final half of December. If things don't turn around soon, they'll be closing months earlier than normal as the sunny, warm days are eroding the pack pretty quickly. Main Lodge is down to 60 something inches...at the start of 2022 it was 155". Point being, by the time traditional runoff season begins in the spring, what they have now will likely be gone. It is exceptionally rare to go 6 weeks at this time of year with zero snowfall. Forecasters out there say the next snow is at least 3 weeks away. That's bizarre.

For Mammoth Mountain in the eastern Sierra: January 2021: 108.5" January 2022: 0"

That's a point I wanted to make in my post and forgot. There's nothing simple about this forecast - it's not like it's a snow situation where the only thing to figure out is the amount of QPF and timing. This is extremely complex. Given that, perhaps they could have communicated a little more a little quicker. (which in fairness seems to be the gripe of some on here) I don't like it when people outside my area of expertise tell me how I should do my job. I in turn will not be critical of others. Just doesn't sit well with me.

Perhaps, but there's been plenty of slander in the past.

I'll just add this - does anyone have any idea how many times CTP has hoisted Winter Storm Warnings, Advisories, etc. only for them to end up not verifying? Me either. But I'll tell you it has happened a lot. People complain about why no advisory, why no warning, why no this or that...they've issued a ton of warnings over the years that failed. Remember that piece, too. A couple of years ago CTP had a Winter Storm Warning for Harrisburg for 8-10" of snow the morning of the storm. I thought they were ludicrous, but everyone else in here was happy. That afternoon they dropped it to an advisory for 2-4". People started blasting them. Then the snow started and some here were demanding that the warning got reissued. It didn't. MDT finished with 2.9" of snow. Advisory verified. Warning fell far short. Point is - with some people, they were wrong either way. They do their best. Personally, I think the criticism is often unfair and unwarranted. Go ahead. Tell me how wrong I am.

Very true...

I approve and agree of the entirety of your message except for the bolded - I'm hoping against hope for a nothing burger. I have a lot of traveling to do tomorrow and not looking forward to that stress whatsoever. Let it rain itself out and be done with it.

Rain and 39, .21" recorded so far. Sucks to be on this side of the boundary, but if it's going to rain. Let it rip. It's been a LONG time since we've had a soaker and I'm ready for the roads to get bathed.

Yes sir.

Just went out for a lunchtime walk around our campus. I'm a cold guy but it feels really good. After a month of lots of cold and little snow...yeah, this is something to look forward to in the coming weeks.

Temp spiked at home from 29 to 41 in 75 minutes.

I didn't look but from what I remember you posting, areas west of the river in general got a little warmer than areas farther east?

I posted that info with you in mind.

Early next week looks seasonal to perhaps a bit below. From midweek on much of the northern half of the U.S. is normal to above normal with colder weather shunted south:

You were a little cooler yesterday for sure - my station reached 40.6 for the high.

Bring it. Will be a pleasant drive east this afternoon in comfortable clothes.

27 when I left the historic district at 6:30am. 33 when I got to Columbia at 6:40am. 22 at 6:45am south of Washington Boro. 29 on top of the hill here at work.

Thanks for sharing. Very well stated. For the record, I wasn't "squabbling" with anyone. I posted a detailed, lengthy discussion by a met who is local to my area. I don't go on and on about him, when he updates his discussions (1-2 times/week) I post them. Last night, I "introduced" his discussion by simply saying that he isn't enthused. He's not. If people actually read his discussion, they would have seen that he's much more enthused on wintry weather in the I81/78 corridor and N&W from there. Someone made a comment that it might be a lot worse where they live and not in Lancaster - that's exactly what the man said! After all, he IS Lancaster-specific. At any rate, despite his bias for this area, he posts what I think are fantastic discussions. He goes into great detail on WHY something will or won't happen. I remember last week when Blizz asked MAG his thoughts on an upcoming storm chance, and MAG's response was essentially "well I think that Kyle Elliott summed it up very well". And that is why I post his thoughts. MAG does the same thing - he'll go into the WHY. The WHY matters. I have learned so much about the WHY. I take the time to read and learn. Not saying others don't do that, but there are times when maps are posted and I think to myself "I really hope such and such doesn't actually think that'll play out". Because the WHY doesn't support the map. At the end of the day, I can look at dozens and dozens of pretty maps BUT I want to know if it's even possible what the model posted suggests. That's where the WHY comes in to play. I'm not lookin for more heartache, I want to know what's likely going to happen.

I don't criticize mets. I have defended CTP here repeatedly. Not sure why this was said.

And he also believes in meteorology and not modelogy.

I think that's what he's saying... No one said he's the be all to all. He's a good met. He posted a good discussion. If you don't like it you certainly don't have to read it. I thought on a weather forum that a weather discussion was relevant to post.

Kyle Elliott downplaying both Friday and Sunday for the LSV here: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

Sun angle is complex. Some factors to consider: How much light is filtering through - not all overcast skies are the same. Rate of snowfall. Heavy snow (true heavy snow) will accumulate on all surfaces in mid March with temps near freezing. But it needs to be ripping Time of day snow is falling I contend that sun angle issues have begun in SOME sense. For example, light snow in late December might accumulate on all surfaces at 30. We just saw last week that isn't the case any longer There's a lot to this, and I take notes of every snowfall at different times, different rates, etc. Anyone that tells you that sun angle issues are reserved only for March...well, that's just not true. Though like I said, it depends on several factors.

Model mayhem! I'm running the AC according to the Nam and Icon, and according to the GFS I'm running the...eh. Never mind. LOL

Exactly why I and others weren't excited yesterday. The event hasn't happened yet but these scenarios rarely ever work out down here.