Itstrainingtime

If you take this map that Blizz posted, erode the western edge of precip by about 50 miles, and that would get snow most likely to the Philly metro area, which seems to be in line with what Mt. Holly is thinking right now. Wouldn't be surprised if PHL picks up about 2" while Cape May gets to 10".

9.1 here now.

There was a time that this would get me interested. I refuse to fall for this now.

The flow and lack of block were/are killers. Ironically, the ridge is positioned pretty close to where we want it - but your previous 2 points overcame that.

Trying to read and interpret this - what forecasters have been way off? The only one that I've posted discussion from has clearly said since last weekend that this was NOT going to be storm for us. The chances of getting snow from the coastal were always low...for reasons that many on here talked about. Also, given how many moving pieces there are flying around, models aren't going to lock into a set outcome days and days in advance. I won't speak for anyone but me, but at no point did I "expect" to get anything from the coastal storm. I haven't heard or read any met (worth their salt) predict a significant snowstorm in our area. Not saying it hasn't happened, but the ones I follow have been downplaying this from day #1 and haven't wavered one bit.

You're the LSV jackpot on the 18z GFS. LOL

Zoom it in a little to show how blessed we are east of the river:

I was having fun and not fully expecting that to be the final chapter of the story. Wasn't it the Ukie that's been consistently a fish storm to this point?

...and just like that, the weenies in Hampton Roads and NE North Carolina have awakened again!

To that point... @canderson - time to move your weekend plans to Cape Hatteras, my friend:

I enjoyed both iterations of said word. LOL

Thanks for that. Makes sense.

See, that's my point. We've had 2 storms this season that really had the potential to deliver significant snowfall. Granted, the second of these 2 hasn't occurred yet, but assuming that it does miss, both times it was the Euro who suckered us in only to cave to the GFS with a final sucker punch finale.

My post was a personal observation not based on any data, so there's that for sure. But...which model has disappointed this subforum the most this winter season? It's the Euro and it isn't close.

Very true.

At this point it's fair to say (I think) that the GFS > Euro. Not sure 3 years ago I'd ever believe that...

Euro holding that energy back in the SW. Not a good thing I think. This is likely going to go the way of other guidance.

In the past decade? Pretty sure just one as well. (2016) You'd have to go back an extra year or two to 2009-10 when they had a couple more.

Not only that, but now we're in danger of missing out on the front end goods as well. That is now confined to our south. Very discouraging. At least the DC crew is looking okay for a 2-4" type of deal on Friday, which I'd take right now in a second. Hoping that comes north some...but I don't know.

Mid atlantic thread arguing over who's doing PBP, but both that are doing it are saying it's bad.

This is 100% truth, and why I was saying yesterday that we need the purples on those snow maps to extend well west of us, or we're going to be on the outside looking in. My biggest discouragement this morning is that guidance has not moved the precip west, if anything most has ticked (or more than ticked) back east. Even the guidance that gets us has us right on the razor's edge. That likely spells fail. Having said that...it's Wednesday. It's complex. And it still could change.

This type of gradient is common for these storms: (and typically, the ground truth ends up about 50 miles east of what is showing on these maps)

You know how I feel about those colorful maps and all...but you gotta check out the NAM's snow map. NW tip of Lanco gets < 1" while the SE corner is approaching 10".

Kyle Elliott posted a fantastic discussion last evening on the weekend storm. Holy crap does that guy go into detail! It must take him an hour or two just to write his discussions. Anyway, it's too long to post here but I recommend checking it out here: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

Funny you mentioned this, I got home last night around 11:30 and was reading the ESPN app while getting prepared for today. Right after I read about the goings-on in the Association last evening, I came on here and saw your post. Give the Clippers some props for not folding the tent, especially on the road.