Itstrainingtime

He is VERY good if not a little over the top arrogant. You know, we've had 3 separate severe threats over the past week - last Friday, Sunday, and tomorrow. SPC was gung ho on Friday and tomorrow and not so much on Sunday's threat. Elliott was completely out for last Friday which ended up being a total non-event, he was in on Sunday which ended up producing a Tornado in Lancaster county, and he's been out for tomorrow since last weekend even as SPC had us in a rare 6 day outlook. Tomorrow hasn't happened yet but over the past week he seems to be outperforming the big boys at SPC.

I wanted to make sure that you saw this: (same cell you were watching in York County) https://www.wgal.com/article/pa-ef-1-tornado-confirmed-lancaster-county-nws/71603879

I will add that even though he expects absolutely zero severe weather, he is anticipating a very windy Thursday PM with gusts to 40mph without storms.

MU gettin' feisty... MU Weather Center The SPC has placed us under a "slight risk" for #severewx on Thurs, but I strongly disagree. The setup is basically a "rinse and repeat" of last Friday. Strong, WSW flow will cause a "downsloping" effect off the Apps, & leftover convection moves through during the morning hours.

That's a superb basketball hoop you have there!

Thank you for sharing that. Kyle Elliott at MU is very unimpressed with this Thursday's setup, he believes that both the timing of the pre-frontal trough as well as westerly downsloping winds will lead to a "very marginal" severe threat. Right now he's leaning for showers with an imbedded rumble of thunder. I'm on his train for now for sure!

I have exactly that amount here. Tornado Warning in the southern part of the county but really just a couple of good showers here, thankfully.

NAM had very scattered activity during the late afternoon and evening followed by a squall line around midnight that was weakening by that point. I want rain but not the severe.

I've been posting far less than usual. Different reasons but I understand why you did what you did.

From what I read on CTP's discussion this morning, an extremely rare day 6 outlook for central PA next Thursday.

Well, if loving when it's below zero with a 25 mph wind makes me mentally ill, I'm the poster child. This weather can go to hell. It already feels like it.

Welcome home! I received .79" this week.

Gulp - (from Elliott at MU) After a mainly clear and mild Saturday night, winds will turn southerly Sunday morning and bring more humid air back into the region. Another cold front will sweep through the Commonwealth from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, interact with the very warm and unstable air mass in place, and spark widespread showers and thunderstorms. The upper-level energy supporting Sunday's front will also be much more vigorous and organized than this afternoon's and on a southwest-to-northeast trajectory across the region. Meanwhile, winds in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere will generally be westerly, so there will be sufficient, deep-layer directional and speed wind shear for tornado formation. I don't expect a tornado outbreak or major, long-track tornadoes, but a few to several twisters are a real possibility in northern MD, southeastern PA, and the Lower Susquehanna Valley. In addition, the most intense storms will likely contain damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph, quarter-sized hail, frequent lightning, and localized flash flooding. The atmosphere will be sufficiently moist and unstable with temperatures and dewpoints in the 80s and mid-to-upper 60s, respectively, for rapid thunderstorm development and growth. As such, rainfall rates may easily reach 2" per hour in many of the storms, but rainfall amounts will vary greatly from neighborhood-to-neighborhood and county-to-county. They may "average" around 0.50" for the region, but some "jackpot" locations may receive up to 2.0-2.5". Regardless, I expect widespread incidents of downed trees and power lines, roof and vehicle damage, and perhaps worse on Sunday. The drive to-and-from Sunday morning church services should be fine, but the weather will turn downright volatile and dangerous Sunday afternoon between ~2-10 PM. If possible, stay inside during that time and seek shelter in an interior room or basement if a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued. In terms of severe weather, Sunday has the potential to be the worst day of the year up to this point.

74/73 with .55" of rain. In a lull but another lighter cell moving in shortly.

Fortunately, the forecasters had it dead wrong. It's incredible outside today! My temp was 68 at 8:00am, and now at 11:30am, it's only 69 with a refreshing breeze. I had a top wind gust of 61mph on Saturday. Tons of trees down and road closures between Maytown and Mount Joy.