WinstonSalemArlington

From Mike Thomas, Fox 5 DC:

Eric Webb: Pepperidge farm remembers when the "record" cold PDO was supposed to give us a -PNA/SE ridge pattern all winter long this year. Instead, the exact opposite has happened/is continuing to happen & the PDO is rapidly rising. A lot of people finding out the hard way that the PDO has no value in winter forecasting & it doesn't "force" the extratropical wave pattern, even in an extreme state. The PDO is at the mercy of the tropics & the atmosphere

Models agree that the first half of January will be frigid

How far East?

From Van Denton WGHP:

BAMWx: This type of pattern flip coming for the new year will take some time for the cold to bleed in so be patient. The nice thing about a setup like this is we’re not getting flooded with Arctic air and shutting off the storm chances. Should be ideal for snow lovers too. Cold bleeds in…

Jumpin January

Eric Webb: Euro Ensemble has a CAD wedge for a week straight in NC & VA next week through the end of December. Yeah so much for that “torch” pattern. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869473367943999824?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

Rollercoaster

Eric Webb: Why have long range model forecasts been trending consistently colder the last week or so in the Eastern US? Imho, it has a lot to do with the Pacific Jet stream. Namely, the shift/trend in model forecasts away from a poleward shift to more of a jet extension in later forecasts. Contrary to some of the popular #S2S takes I’ve seen out there, pacific jet extensions don’t actually favor warmth in the eastern us. In fact, a pacific jet extension on its own actually favors colder temps in the eastern US. Where it often goes sideways is when this jet extension is coupled with El Niño and a poleward shift in the jet stream. The real driver of the milder look seen previously in model forecasts was actually more related the poleward shift in the pacific jet, which the models have trended away from. See Winters et al (2019)

288 hours is closer than you think

So, there’s a chance….