WinstonSalemArlington

I look forward to the cold rainy days of November

And then Indian Summer

And then comes Indian Summer

Frost coming to Columbia next week

Check your furnaces

Looking like first frosts and freezes coming up outside the mountains for Many areas next week

I was just thinking: I really don’t need to mow anymore. Grass seems to have gone dormant since late September.

Larry Cosgrove: “The autumn so far is not following the template that many meteorologists use for a so-called "La Nina Pattern". If you detect some sarcasm in that statement, you are likely right. Following a more familiar "NWP+persistence+climatology" method of forecasting has worked out very well for nearly two years now, during a period characterized as a "historic -ENSO event". Now, as winter approaches and the 3.4 sector temperatures are rising with a well-defined positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation signature, we have to be looking at the transition to an El Nino episode. All of the numerical models have been showing signs of a developing southern branch wind field, and that type of airstream and cloud banding is in view on water vapor imagery across the Pacific Basin. Note also the amplification and blocking signatures at 500MB, with a cPk vortex reaching into the "Soo Locks" vicinity of Michigan and Ontario at the start of the longer term. Even though some flattening of the upper air flow may take shape in the third week of October across North America, the subtropical jet stream may bring along a stronger shortwave through Texas, Dixie, and the Eastern Seaboard. While not importing any extreme cold, the current pattern of "warm West vs. cold East" will likely be maintained for the monthly average. If not longer. While the western third of the continent is not likely to see much moisture, there will be some possibility that higher dewpoints injected into Mexico from Hurricane Julia may move along the Cordillera into portions of the Intermountain Region. This perpetuates the current "false monsoon" set up by the storms Orlene and Paine. But California, in a downslope wind mode, will continue to have hot, dry conditions with ridging that may enable fire hazards. The presence of a deep sub-Aleutian vortex that occasionally reaches the Gulf of Alaska, but not the West Coast, should continue to pump up the ridge axis more than what is shown by the ensemble members. If the positive height anomalies reach Alaska and the Yukon/Northwest Territories, drainage of even colder air will bank up through the Great Plains and Mississippi River watershed. Bottom line here: the various forecast parameters seem to be pointing in the direction of colder weather, with an active southern/eastern storm track, as we head through the remainder of autumn and into the winter of 2022-23.”