WinstonSalemArlington

Eric Webb: A warning shot clipper system (Jan 3-4), followed by a CAD storm + big cold shot (Jan 6-7), & then an amped coastal cyclone (after Jan 7) is the “right” way to run a winter pattern & the kind of stuff some of the best winters in NC are made of. We get the full buffet of wintry weather

Eric Webb: Fwiw, one thing that has always stuck out to me historically about these big dog coastal cyclone NC snow threats sorted by ENSO phase, even dating back into the late 19th century: Miller type A winter storms which occur in the cold phase of ENSO (cool neutral or La Niña conditions) are usually much kinder to RDU folks. Oth, big coastal cyclone cases in El Niño winters seem more likely to produce big snowfall gradients between the Triangle & the Triad areas. All things considered, this is likely because the subtropical jet juices these systems up just a little too much, shoving the rain/snow line &/or heaviest snows further to the NW. Some examples I can think of: - Dec 25-26 2010 - Jan 20 2009 - Jan 24-25 2000 - Feb 5-6 1984 - Feb 9-10 1967 - Jan 23-24 1955 - Jan 18-19 1955 - Mar 10-11 1934 - Jan 13-14 1933 - Feb 14 1913 - Feb 15-17 1902 - Feb 11-13 1899

Sneaky January 3?

Allan Huffman: Today, the 12z runs of the 3 major global models each show a winter storm for the Carolinas/SE/mid-Atlantic although different impulses. CMC on the 6th-8th, GFS 2 systems on the 5th-6th and 7th-8th, ECMWF on the 5th-6th. I wouldnt pay attention to the details yet, just know there is winter weather risk, especially between the 5th and 9th.

HECS

Katie bar the door

Dr Jonathan Wall: As we wait for this Jan 7-10 period to lock onto a system, plenty of big dog members out there. To get a 10”+ snow, it will most likely be a miller A, as depicted by this EPS member. Note the cold is delayed enough for a low to form, the 1043mb high is west of the lakes.

Mike Thomas Fox 5 DC: It’s (ECMWF) so cold it has subzero temps in Atlanta (January 11). That has not happened since the aforementioned 1985 January Arctic air outbreak. Again not sure we’re at this extreme yet but it’s something to see typically warm-biased model bringing down this level of cold!

Dr Jonathan Wall: Potential ~1/6-8 trending better, but no discrete storm potential yet. This gif shows the 4 run trend of the EPS centered on 1/8. Trough moving SW, blocking over Greenland trending west. West coast ridging stronger. 33° highs at RDU on the EPS. Are you ready? ⛄️ Btw, that 24-hr snow chart is typical of DC/DelMarVa/NYC this time of year. Not RDU. Liking our chances here more than usual.

From Mike Thomas, Fox 5 DC:

Eric Webb: Pepperidge farm remembers when the "record" cold PDO was supposed to give us a -PNA/SE ridge pattern all winter long this year. Instead, the exact opposite has happened/is continuing to happen & the PDO is rapidly rising. A lot of people finding out the hard way that the PDO has no value in winter forecasting & it doesn't "force" the extratropical wave pattern, even in an extreme state. The PDO is at the mercy of the tropics & the atmosphere