lakeeffectkid383

Dude look at that remarkable cutoff on the western edge. 24” in BUF , 5” in Hamilton Ontario. A distance of 50 miles… this thing moves East and we’re in big trouble in far WNY.

Only need the GFS to stay the same for another 10 runs.

WOW.

TugHillMatt…. All I can say is stay in PA.

Any volunteers for anyone to drive down to PA and pop a couple tires this weekend?

Yep only a light dusting here. Grass is almost all showing besides some crust piles from last weeks snow. Brutally cold again this morning. 2 degrees but with a 10 mph wind the wind chill was -14 . Up to a balmy 6 degrees with a -9 wind chill now. There is no use for this cold of weather. God bless anyone (BuffaloWeather) who is gonna be sitting at the Bills game Saturday night in similar conditions. Gonna need a lot of drinks to keep the body warm

Snowin like a mofo! Not as much as I would have expected though. What you got there 6-8”?

Carol only has 11” as of 15 minutes ago.

The band looks way more cellular than I was expecting. Certainly doesn’t seem like any insane rates going on in there. Anyone have a reason for this? Maybe winds too strong?

Not lake effect rain, that’s the front moving through. Still rain none the less but not lake effect.

Yeah insane 2-3” QPF with 20:1 or higher ratios. You do the math. That’s insanity.

Yeah the HRRR was WAY too far south for the Erie band that we just had. Had the bullseye from Dunkirk over my head and it landed up about 20-30 miles north of that. RGEM is best lake effect model in my opinion followed by the 3k NAM once your in close range (within 24-36 hours). I wouldn’t trust the HRRR at all for lake effect, I did and got burned badly (4” when it was forecasting 12-24” here consistently leading up to the event, before it finally caught on AFTER the event already started).

Didn’t make it to 0. “Only” dropped to 1 degree before warming began. Already up at 14 degrees now.

By far the coldest morning of the season here and actually first time in the single digits. Down to 2 degrees here. Wondering if we hit 0 before temps start to rebound for the day.

4.1” overnight. Still snowing.

Does the airport break its all time January single day record of 18.3” ? That would be pretty dang cool. At 15.0” as of 5pm so I think it’s gonna be close as you said the heaviest rates are closer to the lake not inland near the airport.

I know why we are I just don’t ever recall seeing this sort of set up that I can remember. It’s not often there’s a low over Superior and another low sliding across PA to the coast at the same time with one producing SW flow lake effect and the other about to produce a snowstorm for Boston. Pretty cool to see even if I only have 1/2” OTG while 13 miles to my north has 20” lol .

Has anyone else ever seen a storm sliding through PA heading to the coast while still seeing a SW flow lake effect band? I can’t recall ever seeing one.

This map is just bonkers lol. 8-12” here when we’ve had 1/2” , not a chance lol.

Have you hit anything worthwhile? Unfortunately the band looks kinda a mess right now.

You may want to set up in Tonawanda by the time you get here lol. That thing is moving north quick. Wonder if it makes it to IAG?

Grand Rapids didn’t have 60mph gust.

Heavy sunshine here.

...ERIE COUNTY... DEPEW 9.0 IN 0934 AM 01/06 42.91N/78.70W NWS BUFFALO 6.5 IN 0858 AM 01/06 42.95N/78.72W BUFFALO 5.5 IN 0926 AM 01/06 42.89N/78.86W WALES 2.2 IN 0700 AM 01/06 42.74N/78.59W WEST SENECA 2.8 ENE 2.0 IN 0700 AM 01/06 42.85N/78.70W CHEEKTOWAGA 2.7 NE 2.0 IN 0700 AM 01/06 42.94N/78.72W EAST CONCORD 2.0 IN 0821 AM 01/06 42.56N/78.64W GLENWOOD 1.0 SE 1.5 IN 0700 AM 01/06 42.61N/78.65W BOSTON 2.5 NE 1.2 IN 0700 AM 01/06 42.65N/78.70W CLARENCE CENTER 0.2 ESE 1.0 IN 0645 AM 01/06 43.01N/78.63W HAMBURG 0.4 WSW 0.5 IN 0700 AM 01/06 42.72N/78.84W HAMBURG 2.0 N 0.5 IN 0708 AM 01/06 42.75N/78.83W BOSTON 1.5 NE 0.5 IN 0730 AM 01/06 42.65N/78.72W ORCHARD PARK 0.5 IN 0808 AM 01/06 42.76N/78.75W TONAWANDA 2.1 ESE 0.2 IN 0700 AM 01/06

We got jipped in the Southtowns. The winds were WAYY too strong last night and the lake effect over us was weak and shredded apart, once it moved north and winds died down it organized quickly but it definitley underperformed here overnight. I got 1/2” of snow when I had 3-7” forecast…