lakeeffectkid383
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Everything posted by lakeeffectkid383
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Gonna be a warning for 6-12” I think in most persistent bands. This ones just not it, too many factors working against it. -
That lake effect looks pretty far south too.
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I think it’ll make it further north than this for sure but this is the best lake effect model and it keeps shifting things south with each run.
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I think your in a great spot. I really think this may be a transition zone special. I think this band locks in just south of the airport and you’ll be just about in the bullseye from you over to Northern WS/S Cheektowaga/ S Lancaster. Still not sold on huge amounts but I could see you scoring 12”+
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I remember the exact map your talking about but I can’t seem to find it anywhere at all. This is a wind direction degree chart. 240 flow is more towards WSW and looks spot on to the direction the maps posted above show IMO.
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Channel 2 ,4, and 7 “in house” models are showing the band barely ever making it to Buffalo. Keeps it locked over the Southtowns the entire time from Me to at times grazing South Buffalo Steve. We know the bands always land up 5 miles or so north with these events when the lake is still so warm but it’s gonna be really close for north of the Airport I think.
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I’m not. Have you looked at model runs this morning? I can’t find one model that puts out more than 8-10” even with ratios anywhere. They’ve backed way off of their totals since yesterday and I’m pretty sure it has to do with that costal storm moving closer and disrupting the flow. To me this is gonna be a low end warning event with 8-12” MAX.
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New map including all of Thursday from BUF.
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To be fair the GFS and Rgem are the only ones that show the band up in the metro for a sustained period of time. I think it’s still too far out to be confident of anything right now. Another 24 hours from now we should have a better picture but I could see BUF getting 3” or 30” as it stands right now so still lots to figure out and we have the time to do it. Don’t think BUF pulls a watch until tomorrow morning after tonight’s model runs. Still 48-60 hours from the event start.
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Didn’t catch that, thanks! as TS said above to me to use the term SIGNIFICANT in all caps need to be 2 feet plus.
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8-12” , boo lol. Weak sauce.
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Long range NAM is as useful as the CFS at 786 hours out.
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Woke up to 1.6” of surprise fluff here this morning.
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Wtf is going on in this Bills game? The Bills need a dome and i don’t care what anyone else here says.
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Right under the bullseye south of BUF. Where do I sign ?
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Was supposed to be at the game today but as you saw in the other thread I have Covid :/
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Just in time for the game! Should be fun to watch. Hoping Allen can sling it through the white curtain!
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Lmao 40-50”?!?
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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..
lakeeffectkid383 replied to wolfie09's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Woke up yesterday with some congestion and a little cough and woke up today feeling like total crap with a wicked painful cough. Got tested and I’m positive. Knew it was just a matter of time. -
Lmao we spent all that time tracking this. I was only expecting 1-3” here so not really to disappointed to wake up and see 1/2-3/4” out there but really sucks for you guys from BUF to ROC who were solidly in the 3-6” zone on every model and are also waking up to 1/2” and a radar that looks like pure trash.
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Rain snow line temporarily moved north but looks to be permanently steadily marching back to the south.
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Back to more sleet than snow. Temp at 32 degrees. Gonna be a long night of flip flopping here I think. I think 10 miles north of me does well but BuffaloWeather and I are right on the cutoff.
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33 and mostly snow now with a couple pingers mixed in. Flakes are nice size too.
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0.41” of rain here already, still rain but temps down to 34 so we’re inching closer.
