lakeeffectkid383
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Everything posted by lakeeffectkid383
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NWS just lowered totals in the warning to 6-12” in the most persistent bands. This ones turning to a dud. -
Haha it’s 4 am the band looks like total garbage and I got half a dusting. Good thing they closed schools for this today lmao. Never fails, as Ayuud said, every time we have a good set up the winds are too strong. I could tell last night that it was WAY too windy outside to get a good band of snow going (on top of the already limiting factor of low cap height of course lol).
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Just looked outside and literally said “ HOLY $h!t! , where the street light ?!?.” It’s literally snowing so hard and so windy it’s snowing completely sideways. Could barely see the street light on the corner of my road. It looks like that old weather channel blizzard icon on the bottom “ticker” on the TV. The winds are BEAST tonight.
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I truly don’t understand how we’re going to get lake effect to form with these winds tonight. It’s absolutely unreal out. I’m having gust shake my house worse then the high wind warnings we had a few weeks ago, it’s fricken insane here right now. I bet we’re gusting close to 60mph if not over. I don’t understand how there’s not a high wind warning let alone an advisory.
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New NWS map really cuts back totals for here, looks more realistic IMO. About 6” here according to the map which is about what I’m expecting here.
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Dude I’m telling you the winds were CRANKING here like an hour or so ago.
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Not trying to be a pessimist at all but I don’t understand how lake effect can form when winds are ripping like this. I’m telling you right now there’s 50+ mph gust here easy. It’s insane here right now. Definitley was not expecting winds like this.
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Yes but from what I’ve seen all districts have chosen not to remote learn tomorrow and to just close completely. That was an option but being the first snow day of the year almost all schools declined for remote learning and just gave everyone an old fashioned snow day!
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Schools are soft as hell now. We were lucky if we were closed by 630 the day of school and that’s if we got BLASTED. Lmao.
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Winds are CRANKING here. Some flakes in the air here as well. Didn’t even lose all of our “snowpack” either as there’s still a solid inch for the new snow to fall on.
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think we’d all be happy with this. Spreads the wealth over most of Erie Co.
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9-17” at my house but I’m not sure I buy it.
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Channel 4 newest model run brings the bullseye even further south. Gonna be a true nowcasting event.
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12z 3k NAM coming is super weak, almost a non event lmao.
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These models can’t make up their minds on what they want to do. 00z run had 17” over KBUF.
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Idk what to think. It’s gotta be super tough to forecast right now. Models have shifted south but history tells us these things come north 5 miles so not sure. I think Mike’s map looks alright, maybe just shift everything north 5 miles.
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All 3 stations have the bullseye from West Seneca to Hamburg and Derby. Channel 2 & 7 model output puts the heaviest right over BuffaloWeather and I. Literally have no idea what’s gonna happen. Expecting 4-6” total here but hoping for 1’ +
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I look at all the models. Best model for lake effect IMO is the RGEM, and when other guidance starts showing similar output regardless of the model it gives it more credence. Anything can happen but there’s no reason to ignore the trends which unfortunately for us don’t seem to be going in the right direction for a huge event.
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Updated map. Keeps on shrinking. now in the 8-12” zone here, barely.
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Idk it brings the band inland plenty until the coastal takes over and winds start to shift and it backs it out over the lake and slowly kills it off. Not saying it’s right but it definitely has the band inland before winds shift.
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Honestly It somewhat makes sense, not the amounts but could totally see as the coastal forms and moves up the coast it causes the winds to veer significantly. This so far is the only model to show this happening (only other model that goes out this far is the NAM atm) but I could see this scenario playing out. As I said earlier IMO this model has been the best at lake effect really so definitley gives a little pause to the huge amounts over the city or north towns.
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Yeah no way. Maybe they wait until after tonight’s 00z runs to pull the trigger on warnings. I mean sure somewhere in Erie County is gonna get warning amounts so issuing a warning is almost a sure thing but where would you put the bullseye right now if you had to make a call. I agree with your map earlier and think the bullseye will be around WS somewhere but man I could see it being Amherst/Williamsville or Hamburg/OP.
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I don’t know if I’ve ever seen such a spread for a lake effect event that’s starting in 24-36 hours. You have the NAM 3k taking the band up to IAG meanwhile the RGEM barely gets the band up to my house and keeps it over the Boston Hills. I get it’s lake effect but holy cow. Literally no idea what’s going to happen but as BuffaloWeather said that’s the fun in lake effect!
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How are you still excited when that things showing a snow hole right over your head in the transition zone ? lol
