lakeeffectkid383

I’m pretty sure mobile cell phone data.

06z GFS would bring historic flooding to BUF verbatim. 7” and counting ... this on an already saturated ground. Obviously highly unlikley we get that much but I don’t think I have ever seen that much QPF modeled before. 6” of this falls in like 24-36 hours.

Not good for WNY. We were previously meeting 5/7 criteria for reopening. Now we’re only meeting 4/7. Not only did they just reset the 14 day decrease in hospitalizations yesterday so that we’re now at 0 again but today they removed the green check mark and gave us an “X” for decrease in deaths, just as I had feared they would last week as we’ve seen an increase over the last 2 weeks of deaths. Not the way we want to be going right now. There’s virtually no way we open this month now.

Civil War? I agree with what your thinking and could totally see that happening. It does seem that the blue states are harder hit, likely because they are generally in the northern part of the Country as well as generally more populated/densely populated than red states. I can definitely see things waning this summer and people get outdoors more and get more vitamin D and are still practicing social distancing. However over time people are slowly going to go back to their old habits pre Coronavirus and not wear a mask as frequently/washing of hands. This combined with everyone gathering back inside again come fall I really could see a second peak coming but I don’t see the Country shutting down for it again unless it is somewhat worse than this first wave. I think some of the shutdown was also due to the unknown. This all came so quick and we had so little time to figure out what to do the best thing at the time was to just shut everything down to prevent as much spread as possible. Now that we do know more about the virus, we do more with masking up/washing hands/ social distancing, and a percentage of the population will already have antibodies I’m not sure the second wave will be as bad as the first. Also brings me to another thing, if people have antibodies now will they still protect them (if they even do in the first place) in the Fall/Winter if there is another outbreak as that could be 5-8 months down the road from now?

This was actually a growing concern as luckily the the peak of Covid is/was coming as Flu was really on the decline. If we have a second peak of Covid in the fall/winter I wonder how hospitals are going to fare as they’ll likely already be fuller from Influenza patients..

I agree, and I’m not sure once we do reach the milestone and enter into phase 1 if we have a 3 day blip if they’ll close it back down or delay the start of phase 2, but not sure. It’s gonna be a long time before we see things even close to back to normal around here. If we’re lucky we reach phase 4 at the beginning of August which is entertainment and recreation. Doesn’t really matter though as everything will likely be cancelled before that anyways. You can pretty much kiss this summers events goodbye, no Canalside concerts, no taste of Buffalo, no Ride for Roswell, no Italian Fest, several towns/villages already cancelled their 4th of July fireworks/parades... you can bet the Erie a County Fair, Wingfest, etc will all be cancelled and if I had to guess right now I’d bet the NFL season gets cancelled as well, or at best they play with 0 fans.

They’re using a 3 day rolling average so a day or two blip should not mess up a long term trend however if you have 3 + days of increases obviously that wipes it out. Also I was surprised to learn today that the 400 deaths in Erie County are all in hospitals and do not include deaths in nursing homes. Could be people that were in nursing homes, transferred to the hospital than passed away and it would count towards the 400 but if they pass in the nursing home itself that doesn’t count towards the death count. Also probable deaths are also not counted to the true death toll is likely quite a bit higher but I do agree the way they’re doing it is going to be quite tough to achieve.

Governor just announced Finger Lakes (Rochester), Southern Tier (Binghamton), and Mohawk Valley have met all 7 requirements needed to begin reopening in phase 1 on Friday.

84 sounds beautiful after the last few weeks lol. I go for runs daily as well but go before 8am so heat would be a non issue for me. Cruddy thing is it looks like with this warmth comes lots of moisture and chances for rain.

Honestly I can’t say for sure, however Finger Lakes region has had a much slower increase in cases, deaths, and already had met 5/7 metrics as of last week to begin phase 1. All you guys really need is more contact tracers and more testing which shouldn’t be too hard to obtain in the next week as test seem to be really widely available now, at least here. WNY (specifically Erie County) has seen the opposite with a large rise in cases (in part due to more testing), a small rise in hospitalizations (definitely not a 14 day decline) and a rise of deaths. I’m not sure why we are doing so much worse here as Monroe County has almost 800k residents compared to our 920k.

This is false. First your comparing apples to oranges. Your comparing a virus that has infected over 45,000,000 a year on average to a virus that has only been in the US for less than 3 months and has infected far less people. The number of deaths in younger people may be more but that’s only because there’s more people infected. If you look at the number of deaths in the under 65 category they add up to 10,197. That makes up only 16 percent of the 61,000 deaths from the flu that season. Right now on average from World O Meters and the CDC approximately 25-30% of the deaths from Covid are under the age of 65. You can’t use the shear number of deaths from an illness that has infected far more people and compare it to another illness that hasn’t infected as much of the population.

Yep I’m super nervous about my fiancé who is 25 but has hypertension and a weakened immune system from being pregnant. Super nerve wracking going to the hospital to give birth knowing there could be people there who have it who are asymptomatic and she’s much more susceptible to it than I am.

The 14 day decline in deaths that WNY was previously meeting will likely not be met anymore once updated. The past week has been the deadliest week yet in Erie County with nearly 100 deaths.

https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/erie-county-to-reopen-in-four-phases/ Looks like WNY region likely won’t even begin phase 1 until June with phase 4 not happening until August if everything goes smoothly.

I’m not sure as the NYSDOH stopped reporting on 5/6 to update their system. However in the 2 days before the system stopped reporting the hospitalizations the hospitalizations went up slightly (245 hospitalizations from 240). There hasn’t been more than a 2 or 3 day decrease in hospitalizations before there’s 3-4 days of Increase of hospitalizations. Also interesting to note 110 of 245 hospitalizations were for those under 65 years old. For the past week admissions exceeded discharges 168 to 152. Its important to note that deaths are also considered discharges so if 30 people are admitted in a given day and there’s 30 discharges, 15 of those “discharges” could be deaths thus making the numbers look more flatlined. Some leaders are trying to change this as a discharge is technically defined as “the point at which the patient leaves the hospital and either returns home or is transferred to another facility such as one for rehabilitation or to a nursing home. Discharge involves the medical instructions that the patient will need to fully recover.”

Thanks for the clarification, even the news outlets were reporting this earlier.

According to ECDOH 25% of deaths are under 70 not 5 percent.

Their cases and deaths are next to nothing compared to Erie County. We have seen nearly 1000 cases and 100 deaths in the last week here. Broome County which is their most populous county has only 338 total cases and 22 deaths. That’s almost our new daily average in Erie County. We’re seeing about 200 plus new cases a day, in part because of increased testing, and 12-24 deaths a day. We have more deaths (357 as of yesterday) than they have total cases. I can understand areas such as Southern Tier, CNY, North Country, and even Finger Lakes (Rochester) reopening pre June 6th.

I know the pause order was extended through June 6th for all of NYS but it did say if a region meets all 7 of the Govonors phase 1 reopening metrics they may be able to open prior to June 6th. I know WNY has only 3 of 7 metrics met so I’m not so sure we will be meeting those criteria prior to that date.

I’m not sure if this is true or not but here’s the article. https://buffalonews.com/2020/05/08/emminger-tests-positive-again-for-covid-19/ This is why more research needs to be done to find out wether or not antibodies mean immunity because those are two totally different things. I’ve seen evidence supporting both theories and I think it’s far too early to say anything conclusively either way.

500k is still approx 15 years of flu deaths and where do you get half the deaths would have died from almost any illness? Just because someone has a comorbidity doesn’t mean they would have just died from “any illness”. If that was the case your seasonal flu deaths would be much higher than they are. You don’t see 80,000 people dying in 2 months from seasonal flu. You can’t just say because they’re old they would have died anyways so their deaths don’t count?

The antibody test are interesting to find out how much of the population has been exposed so far and I think that is an important statistic so we can get a much more accurate infection rate and death rate however it’s still not known if you have a positive antibody test if you can become reinfected or have a “flare up” like other diseases such a mono have. The Town of Tonawanda supervisor just tweeted yesterday (as well as on the News) that after testing positive for Covid 5 weeks ago and then recovering, feeling better, and having a negative test result 2 weeks ago, and a positive antibody test, he then just found out 2 days ago he tested positive for active infection again after feeling sick again. There needs to be much more research done on if having positive antibodies mean immunity or not because it seems more and more people who have positive antibodies are able to contact the disease if exposed again or have a “flare up” of the disease that never fully left their system which would then make them contagious as a possible spreader once again.

If you assumed that 60 percent of the US population would need to be infected that is 192,000,000 people infected. If you use the antibody numbers instead of the confirmed numbers you come up with a death rate at the lowest of 0.5 - 0.6 %. Multiply that death rate times the percentage of the population needed for herd immunity you get 960,000 - 1,152,000 deaths. Even if the death rate lowers as the “most vulnerable” population is “depleted” your probably talking around 750,000 deaths in the U.S. if everything goes good. That’s more then double the deaths from the last 10 years of flu seasons combined (337,200 deaths from 2010-2019 seasons according to the CDC)...

It never does. Looks amazing. Enjoy it!

Awesome Ob for BUF for May 9th at 2 pm! translates to 32 degrees, moderate snow, 1/4 mile visibility, winds gusting to 29 mph. KBUF 091754Z 30012G25KT 1/4SM R23/1200V5500FT SN FG BKN012 BKN025