lakeeffectkid383

Governor just announced Finger Lakes (Rochester), Southern Tier (Binghamton), and Mohawk Valley have met all 7 requirements needed to begin reopening in phase 1 on Friday.

84 sounds beautiful after the last few weeks lol. I go for runs daily as well but go before 8am so heat would be a non issue for me. Cruddy thing is it looks like with this warmth comes lots of moisture and chances for rain.

Honestly I can’t say for sure, however Finger Lakes region has had a much slower increase in cases, deaths, and already had met 5/7 metrics as of last week to begin phase 1. All you guys really need is more contact tracers and more testing which shouldn’t be too hard to obtain in the next week as test seem to be really widely available now, at least here. WNY (specifically Erie County) has seen the opposite with a large rise in cases (in part due to more testing), a small rise in hospitalizations (definitely not a 14 day decline) and a rise of deaths. I’m not sure why we are doing so much worse here as Monroe County has almost 800k residents compared to our 920k.

This is false. First your comparing apples to oranges. Your comparing a virus that has infected over 45,000,000 a year on average to a virus that has only been in the US for less than 3 months and has infected far less people. The number of deaths in younger people may be more but that’s only because there’s more people infected. If you look at the number of deaths in the under 65 category they add up to 10,197. That makes up only 16 percent of the 61,000 deaths from the flu that season. Right now on average from World O Meters and the CDC approximately 25-30% of the deaths from Covid are under the age of 65. You can’t use the shear number of deaths from an illness that has infected far more people and compare it to another illness that hasn’t infected as much of the population.

Yep I’m super nervous about my fiancé who is 25 but has hypertension and a weakened immune system from being pregnant. Super nerve wracking going to the hospital to give birth knowing there could be people there who have it who are asymptomatic and she’s much more susceptible to it than I am.

The 14 day decline in deaths that WNY was previously meeting will likely not be met anymore once updated. The past week has been the deadliest week yet in Erie County with nearly 100 deaths.

https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/erie-county-to-reopen-in-four-phases/ Looks like WNY region likely won’t even begin phase 1 until June with phase 4 not happening until August if everything goes smoothly.

I’m not sure as the NYSDOH stopped reporting on 5/6 to update their system. However in the 2 days before the system stopped reporting the hospitalizations the hospitalizations went up slightly (245 hospitalizations from 240). There hasn’t been more than a 2 or 3 day decrease in hospitalizations before there’s 3-4 days of Increase of hospitalizations. Also interesting to note 110 of 245 hospitalizations were for those under 65 years old. For the past week admissions exceeded discharges 168 to 152. Its important to note that deaths are also considered discharges so if 30 people are admitted in a given day and there’s 30 discharges, 15 of those “discharges” could be deaths thus making the numbers look more flatlined. Some leaders are trying to change this as a discharge is technically defined as “the point at which the patient leaves the hospital and either returns home or is transferred to another facility such as one for rehabilitation or to a nursing home. Discharge involves the medical instructions that the patient will need to fully recover.”

Thanks for the clarification, even the news outlets were reporting this earlier.

According to ECDOH 25% of deaths are under 70 not 5 percent.

Their cases and deaths are next to nothing compared to Erie County. We have seen nearly 1000 cases and 100 deaths in the last week here. Broome County which is their most populous county has only 338 total cases and 22 deaths. That’s almost our new daily average in Erie County. We’re seeing about 200 plus new cases a day, in part because of increased testing, and 12-24 deaths a day. We have more deaths (357 as of yesterday) than they have total cases. I can understand areas such as Southern Tier, CNY, North Country, and even Finger Lakes (Rochester) reopening pre June 6th.

I know the pause order was extended through June 6th for all of NYS but it did say if a region meets all 7 of the Govonors phase 1 reopening metrics they may be able to open prior to June 6th. I know WNY has only 3 of 7 metrics met so I’m not so sure we will be meeting those criteria prior to that date.

I’m not sure if this is true or not but here’s the article. https://buffalonews.com/2020/05/08/emminger-tests-positive-again-for-covid-19/ This is why more research needs to be done to find out wether or not antibodies mean immunity because those are two totally different things. I’ve seen evidence supporting both theories and I think it’s far too early to say anything conclusively either way.

500k is still approx 15 years of flu deaths and where do you get half the deaths would have died from almost any illness? Just because someone has a comorbidity doesn’t mean they would have just died from “any illness”. If that was the case your seasonal flu deaths would be much higher than they are. You don’t see 80,000 people dying in 2 months from seasonal flu. You can’t just say because they’re old they would have died anyways so their deaths don’t count?

The antibody test are interesting to find out how much of the population has been exposed so far and I think that is an important statistic so we can get a much more accurate infection rate and death rate however it’s still not known if you have a positive antibody test if you can become reinfected or have a “flare up” like other diseases such a mono have. The Town of Tonawanda supervisor just tweeted yesterday (as well as on the News) that after testing positive for Covid 5 weeks ago and then recovering, feeling better, and having a negative test result 2 weeks ago, and a positive antibody test, he then just found out 2 days ago he tested positive for active infection again after feeling sick again. There needs to be much more research done on if having positive antibodies mean immunity or not because it seems more and more people who have positive antibodies are able to contact the disease if exposed again or have a “flare up” of the disease that never fully left their system which would then make them contagious as a possible spreader once again.

If you assumed that 60 percent of the US population would need to be infected that is 192,000,000 people infected. If you use the antibody numbers instead of the confirmed numbers you come up with a death rate at the lowest of 0.5 - 0.6 %. Multiply that death rate times the percentage of the population needed for herd immunity you get 960,000 - 1,152,000 deaths. Even if the death rate lowers as the “most vulnerable” population is “depleted” your probably talking around 750,000 deaths in the U.S. if everything goes good. That’s more then double the deaths from the last 10 years of flu seasons combined (337,200 deaths from 2010-2019 seasons according to the CDC)...

It never does. Looks amazing. Enjoy it!

Awesome Ob for BUF for May 9th at 2 pm! translates to 32 degrees, moderate snow, 1/4 mile visibility, winds gusting to 29 mph. KBUF 091754Z 30012G25KT 1/4SM R23/1200V5500FT SN FG BKN012 BKN025

There’s no way the airport doesn’t record accumulating snow today. I have snow accumulating in my driveway and on my road at 1pm.

It says linked to one man, not one man. It says in 2 days 40 people tested positive after coming in contact with the man at a nightclub. Keep the clubs open and those 40 could effect 40 more each which is 1600 and so and and so forth...

Would there not be Herd Immunity before decades took place? Seems silly to me.

Okay so I have legit moderate snow coming down and sticking right now at Noon in May 8th. The temperature has dropped from 38 degrees when I got up at 8 am to 33 degrees currently at Noon. The most incredible cold airmass I have seen this late in the season ever. If we manage to pick up measurable snow at the airport will it count towards 19-20 season or 20-21 season? lol

Where at?

I’d consider anything this time of the year a huge bonus. I’ve never seen accumulating snow of any kind in my lifetime in May, not even a dusting. I’ve seen mangeled flakes and grapple in May before but that’s it.

Fine by me. Patriots have a few asterisk next to theirs too and they still count lol.