lakeeffectkid383

I’m in Laramie until Tuesday. May have to stay a little later based on what the models are showing. GFS has 10-14” here.

This times 100. Give me a good early season from Mid Nov to New Years. Then slowly wave away from there. We get our best lake snow in November and December anyways. If we get quick shallow cold shots in Nov and Dec that doesn’t really produce lake effect by the time you get to late Jan through March the lake is either frozen over or not big enough delta T’s for good lake effect or winds are WNW/NW.

Just added to my ignore list as well. I’m willing to bet he’s the most ignored user in this board, and if not he definitely should be.

145 now, forecast to make landfall at 150 now. Only a few mph short of Cat 5. As you said won’t make a difference. Many will likely see 20+ foot surges and devastating winds. Likely not enough time for an ERC to negatively effect this as were only about 8 hours from landfall and there’s no signs of an ERC taking place yet and if anything is still looks to be slowly intensifying. Should be one of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit the Gulf if it hits at 150mph or higher. This just 2 years after Michael. Unreal.

Only .41” at BUF since August 5th with .36” of that coming on the 15th. We’re only at 1.6” since August 1st and only 1.88” in the last 30 days. I’d be willing to bet in Amherst it’s even less as the airports caught a few storms we missed out on or were more intense there than here. I’ll have to dig through my PWS data but I’m guessing it’s closer to only 1” in last 30 days here.

Didn’t hear a thing. Usually I’m a light sleeper, but I don’t get much sleep with 2 kids under 1 year old lol. Saw some pretty significant damage in Hamburg today BuffaloWeather. On 62 right near Evans street where I work there was a large tree in the road closing both lanes of traffic. Also a tree down on Pleasant St near Scott street also closing the whole road. Saw on Channel 4 it looks like there was a microburst that started on Smith road and headed SE over Pleasant St and Rt 62. Some really large healthy maples were snapped in half like toothpicks on the footage from Smith rd. They’re guesstimating winds were about 70 mph or so in the microburst but not sure if the NWS surveyed it already or still have to do so but interesting little thing to come outta last nights storms.

A whopping 0.02” from last nights storms just down the road from you in Eggertsville. The leaves really are dropping like fall here. My backyard grass is toast between the dryness and my 3 dogs using the bathroom on it all the time lol. I actually had to rake a bunch of leaves out of the flower beds today and got 3 of the paper yard waste bags full of leaves. The large oak in my backyard is almost half bare and the half that are left are completely brown. Hopefully Laura helps us out or were not even going to have much foliage to look forward to in a month or so, most the leaves will have already dropped.

What’s the last tropical cyclone that really delivered that much rain here in WNY? Katrina in 05’?

Just so you all know this is WesterlyWx, I changed my name back to my original name when I started on this board 10 years ago since obviously I’m back here in Buffalo not in Westerly,RI anymore lol. Didn’t even hear the storms here so it must not have been bad despite the STW because I’m a light sleeper. Looking forward to some cooler weather finally. I’m over the heat for the year, we’ve had quite enough. Bring on fall and football (until it gets cancelled)!

Surprised too. Is it just me or does Marco look like he’s moving due north on satellite? This thing keeps landing up further and further east of the forecast track. Could that lessen the impact from shear if it’s further away from the trough or moving more parallel with the trough (northerly) rather than more perpendicular (northwesterly)?

What’s causing the mass void in convection all around the western side of the center of circulation? Is it down sloping off the land or is it from the SW shear from the trough to its north or both, or neither?

For sure it’s just there’s a lot more involved then water temps. With a trough incoming from the north as it gets deeper in the Gulf there could be interaction with strong shear and as mentioned with its close proximity now TD 14 could have impacts if that storm ends up the stronger one with its outflow channel impeding Laura. Obviously anything can happen but I don’t see how we’d be able to see 2 majors simultaneously in the Gulf within 500 miles of each other, but then again like you said it’s 2020

That would be insane but with the new fix about 80 miles south that also could mean the storm gets shredded over PR/Hispaniola/Cuba. That could happen and it could still get its act together in the Gulf or if TD 14 lands up stronger over the western Gulf the outflow channel from that would likely weaken or at least temper intensification if Laura is even intact after possible interactions with the islands. So many possibilities and definitely going to be fascinating to track and see how this all unfolds.

That’s what I figured but definitely an interesting thing to think about. If it did slow the storms down especially TD 14 it may land up interacting less with the trough to the north as it moves deeper into the Gulf thus creating less shear for it but either way it’s unique situation for sure.

I know it’s very early but with Laura looking to be fairly significantly further south than previously thought and TD 14 now looking further NE than previously thought, any ideas how this may impact them If they land up even closer together than we thought they could in the Gulf?

Incredible that there’s forecasted to be two Hurricanes making landfall in the gulf at the same time. Definitely never seen that before. Only in 2020.

Would that make it the warmest July/Aug combo on record? Love when tropical season gets going but hoping no one gets hit with anything major this year. No one needs to deal with a major hurricane landfall with everything else going on in 2020.

Man was just looking through some post from the old channel 4 weather blog back in 2008 and man those were the days haha. ThinkSnow18 were you Sled Hill back on the blog back then or am I thinking of somebody else lol?

Yep I remember this. Right near the OP border right near Ninos Pizza on OP Road. Was pretty impressive for a quick spin up from a waterspout that managed to touch back down.

This times 1000x please.

I’m surprised you haven’t posted yet gyms can finally open up on Monday next week. 33% capacity and have to wear a mask the entire time.

I have several cameras on my house. Used a Nest Camera which is super easy to install as it’s WiFi and you just plug it into an outlet, it has a 25 foot cord which is also flat so I run it through the window and close the window on it and it’s thin enough I can still lock the window and didn’t have to drill any holes through the house. Literally set up in less than 5 minutes and can stream online and view on my phone from anywhere. Full 1080p HD too.

It’s been shown that is has no effect on lake effect season what so ever. A really warm lake now can easily be wiped out in a couples weeks of below average temperatures in September or October when it’s still too warm for snow but cold enough to quickly drain all the excess heat from the lake.

Yep me too. At some point this pattern has to give and even reverse, hopefully it’s sometime after late October when it would mean below average temperatures would likely bring better chances for snow. 60s and 70s would be wonderful now but I’d rather be 10 degrees below average in November when it’s prime lake effect season then now when it doesn’t really mean much in sensible weather impacts.

WOW