lakeeffectkid383

Don’t forget masks were in severely short supply until sometime in April. No one could get their hands on any type of masks not even doctors/hospitals. The state had to buy whatever masks they could at inflated prices as did many other states with some states even buying the KN95 masks from other countries just to have something.

Was it overblown though? Or was it not as bad as it could have been because of the shutdowns/extreme social distancing at the time when the virus was the most contagious and had the highest Infection Rate in this part of the country? If we had not taken such extreme measures when this thing was raging through NYC and spreading rapidly across the NE would things have likely been much much worse? I’m not saying that it wasn’t overblown at all but it’s easy to look back now and say the measures that we’re in place were overblown because it didn’t turn out to be as bad as predicted/or could have been when in fact those things are possibly what kept this from being to the point we all feared it could be where these measures would have seemed justified.

Had one. Left it out during the wintertime and the water that accumulated on the “stone” edges (really a thin set mixture textured to look like stone) landed up freezing and expanding in the grooves of the “stone” and cracked the surround. Was great when we had it , I just foolishly left it outside during the winter which was my mistake. Much more convenient than a “real” fire however it is nice to have the smell of a real fire especially with a good dry hardwood.

Show me where cases are rising in NY. We have the lowest infection rate of any state in the entire country at 0.77 and cases are at their lowest number they’ve been at since the pandemic started and that’s even with testing 3 times as much daily now as when the Pandemic began. 50,000 test a day now in NY and only less than 2% in the entire state coming back positive daily. Some areas like the North Country only have 0.2 - 0.5 % of test coming back positive, and this is even with all the reopening taking place (their in phase 3 already). Hospitalizations and deaths are also the lowest they’ve been at since it all began in early/mid March. Sure other states are having surges but that’s because it took a long time to get to them, they’re just having later peaks then us, it just happens to coincide with them reopening since most of the country is opening up at the same time. Right now for a change New York is one of the safest states you can be in for Covid IMO, now that we’re well past our peak.

Sad but true.

I definitely can’t see people working out wearing masks. They feel restrictive to most people. Who wants to wear that while working out? I could see a temp check at the door and sanitizing wipes to wipe down equipment in between use, but on a personal preference level, like the shopping cart wipes when you go into a grocery store.

That’s that guidelines from the CDC based on the incubation period from the virus so that if we open things up tomorrow and in 2 weeks we haven’t seen a noticeable increase in hospitalizations or cases relative to test than we know we’re okay to proceed to the next phase. Cuomo did say theoretically it could be quicker in between periods if there’s still a strong decline over the period after each phase is open so I’m assuming if we still show a strong decline in cases/hospitalizations over 10 days there’s a chance we could move to the next phase sooner than the full 14 days.

Cuomo just announced from Roswell Park WNY has met the contact tracer metric and WNY is opening phase 1 tomorrow! He also said they will be opening up NYS to sports with no fans allowed. Sounds like there will be an NFL season but with no fans. Would be weird as heck with no fans but better than no football. However with Buffalo sports luck we will win the division for the first time since 1995 and then have a home playoff game for the first time in 25 years and no fans will be allowed lmao.

It doesn’t really matter to me either way. I’m still taking every precaution and will be extra cautious until after my daughter is born (due in 3 weeks and she can build up somewhat of an immune system (6 months +). Am glad for the majority of people though who don’t have a year + worth of savings and need to work just to pay rent/mortgage. There’s no doubt that we must be strategic and thoughtful as were reopening but I do think now is the right time as we have seen a steady decrease all of NYS the last several weeks including WNY the past 2 weeks (save from a 2 or 3 day little “blip”). Will be interesting to see if infections increase as we open, level off, or continue to decrease as they have been.

Stupid, when we only had 4 or 5/7 they contract tracing category was listed as “expected” instead of a green or read check mark but counted as one of the 4 or 5 “green checks”. Now that we’re meeting all the other criteria the contact tracing category still says “expected” but counts as a red “x” instead of a green check. So technically I guess we still only have reached 6/7 metrics but not sure why that is when the expected contact tracing capacity was counting as a metric that was “good to go” but is now the only thing holding us back.

WNY hit all 7. They used stipulation in the metrics instead of 14 day decline in hospitalizations we met it using the criteria of 3 day rolling average less than 15 new hospitalizations today. Not sure when we are actually going to begin phase 1 but according to Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz we have met all 7 criteria needed to reopen.

I’m pretty sure mobile cell phone data.

Not good for WNY. We were previously meeting 5/7 criteria for reopening. Now we’re only meeting 4/7. Not only did they just reset the 14 day decrease in hospitalizations yesterday so that we’re now at 0 again but today they removed the green check mark and gave us an “X” for decrease in deaths, just as I had feared they would last week as we’ve seen an increase over the last 2 weeks of deaths. Not the way we want to be going right now. There’s virtually no way we open this month now.

Civil War? I agree with what your thinking and could totally see that happening. It does seem that the blue states are harder hit, likely because they are generally in the northern part of the Country as well as generally more populated/densely populated than red states. I can definitely see things waning this summer and people get outdoors more and get more vitamin D and are still practicing social distancing. However over time people are slowly going to go back to their old habits pre Coronavirus and not wear a mask as frequently/washing of hands. This combined with everyone gathering back inside again come fall I really could see a second peak coming but I don’t see the Country shutting down for it again unless it is somewhat worse than this first wave. I think some of the shutdown was also due to the unknown. This all came so quick and we had so little time to figure out what to do the best thing at the time was to just shut everything down to prevent as much spread as possible. Now that we do know more about the virus, we do more with masking up/washing hands/ social distancing, and a percentage of the population will already have antibodies I’m not sure the second wave will be as bad as the first. Also brings me to another thing, if people have antibodies now will they still protect them (if they even do in the first place) in the Fall/Winter if there is another outbreak as that could be 5-8 months down the road from now?

This was actually a growing concern as luckily the the peak of Covid is/was coming as Flu was really on the decline. If we have a second peak of Covid in the fall/winter I wonder how hospitals are going to fare as they’ll likely already be fuller from Influenza patients..

I agree, and I’m not sure once we do reach the milestone and enter into phase 1 if we have a 3 day blip if they’ll close it back down or delay the start of phase 2, but not sure. It’s gonna be a long time before we see things even close to back to normal around here. If we’re lucky we reach phase 4 at the beginning of August which is entertainment and recreation. Doesn’t really matter though as everything will likely be cancelled before that anyways. You can pretty much kiss this summers events goodbye, no Canalside concerts, no taste of Buffalo, no Ride for Roswell, no Italian Fest, several towns/villages already cancelled their 4th of July fireworks/parades... you can bet the Erie a County Fair, Wingfest, etc will all be cancelled and if I had to guess right now I’d bet the NFL season gets cancelled as well, or at best they play with 0 fans.

They’re using a 3 day rolling average so a day or two blip should not mess up a long term trend however if you have 3 + days of increases obviously that wipes it out. Also I was surprised to learn today that the 400 deaths in Erie County are all in hospitals and do not include deaths in nursing homes. Could be people that were in nursing homes, transferred to the hospital than passed away and it would count towards the 400 but if they pass in the nursing home itself that doesn’t count towards the death count. Also probable deaths are also not counted to the true death toll is likely quite a bit higher but I do agree the way they’re doing it is going to be quite tough to achieve.

Governor just announced Finger Lakes (Rochester), Southern Tier (Binghamton), and Mohawk Valley have met all 7 requirements needed to begin reopening in phase 1 on Friday.

Honestly I can’t say for sure, however Finger Lakes region has had a much slower increase in cases, deaths, and already had met 5/7 metrics as of last week to begin phase 1. All you guys really need is more contact tracers and more testing which shouldn’t be too hard to obtain in the next week as test seem to be really widely available now, at least here. WNY (specifically Erie County) has seen the opposite with a large rise in cases (in part due to more testing), a small rise in hospitalizations (definitely not a 14 day decline) and a rise of deaths. I’m not sure why we are doing so much worse here as Monroe County has almost 800k residents compared to our 920k.

This is false. First your comparing apples to oranges. Your comparing a virus that has infected over 45,000,000 a year on average to a virus that has only been in the US for less than 3 months and has infected far less people. The number of deaths in younger people may be more but that’s only because there’s more people infected. If you look at the number of deaths in the under 65 category they add up to 10,197. That makes up only 16 percent of the 61,000 deaths from the flu that season. Right now on average from World O Meters and the CDC approximately 25-30% of the deaths from Covid are under the age of 65. You can’t use the shear number of deaths from an illness that has infected far more people and compare it to another illness that hasn’t infected as much of the population.

Yep I’m super nervous about my fiancé who is 25 but has hypertension and a weakened immune system from being pregnant. Super nerve wracking going to the hospital to give birth knowing there could be people there who have it who are asymptomatic and she’s much more susceptible to it than I am.

The 14 day decline in deaths that WNY was previously meeting will likely not be met anymore once updated. The past week has been the deadliest week yet in Erie County with nearly 100 deaths.

https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/erie-county-to-reopen-in-four-phases/ Looks like WNY region likely won’t even begin phase 1 until June with phase 4 not happening until August if everything goes smoothly.

I’m not sure as the NYSDOH stopped reporting on 5/6 to update their system. However in the 2 days before the system stopped reporting the hospitalizations the hospitalizations went up slightly (245 hospitalizations from 240). There hasn’t been more than a 2 or 3 day decrease in hospitalizations before there’s 3-4 days of Increase of hospitalizations. Also interesting to note 110 of 245 hospitalizations were for those under 65 years old. For the past week admissions exceeded discharges 168 to 152. Its important to note that deaths are also considered discharges so if 30 people are admitted in a given day and there’s 30 discharges, 15 of those “discharges” could be deaths thus making the numbers look more flatlined. Some leaders are trying to change this as a discharge is technically defined as “the point at which the patient leaves the hospital and either returns home or is transferred to another facility such as one for rehabilitation or to a nursing home. Discharge involves the medical instructions that the patient will need to fully recover.”

Thanks for the clarification, even the news outlets were reporting this earlier.