lakeeffectkid383

That’s definitley true almost all early season lake effect events land up further north than forecasted. Maybe Hamburg can grab a surprise 2-4” tomorrow morning?

Agree but if we make it to New Years with single digit snow I think even 80” is a stretch. Didn’t someone here (possibly you) post how bad winters usually come in twos? Last year was a dud so it would make sense for this year to be a dud as well.

They always look good 8-10 days out. This winter is turning into a dud quick especially for us in the BUF metro area. With nothing significant looking likely in the next 7-10 days or so that puts us at mid December already, if we don’t turn the corner quick we start quickly falling by behind in snowfall. With the lake temp dropping pretty rapidly we’re quickly losing out on our “prime time” for big LES when we usually get our best events from mid Nov-Mid January. After that as we’ve discussed numerous times on this forum the winds tend to be more WNW and NW as we head latter into the winter. So areas like ROC and SYR have a better chance to make up for a slow start than BUF does. I’m not ready to throw in the towel yet but if we get to Christmas less than 10” on the season at BUF I think it’s a virtual lock for a well below average snowfall season (less than 75”).

Got some lake effect going here... Lake effect rain that is! Lmao . 35 and nice rain showers from some lake effect off Ontario. It’s gonna be a rough season for snow lovers isn’t it?

Yep, sure was. Was living in West Seneca and we got close to 20” if I remember correctly after missing out on the band just to my south over the Stadium for hours. Ahhh good lake effect storms, don’t even remember what those are anymore. With winters becoming what they are here we are considering more and more moving to Wyoming in the next couple of years after my foster sons adoption is finalized.

Yeah but only 170,000 doses of which all will go to nursing home residents and workers. It will be Feb-March until regular folks can get the vaccine. After Nursing home residents/workers get it , then it will be first responders and doctors/nurses, and other high risk individuals. I also don’t see us going back to yellow as Cuomo also just stated Erie County has the worst hospital situation in the entire State hence why no more elective surgeries again.

If that comes anywhere close to being right I might have to chase this one into the Catskills. I have off until Tuesday next week. Find a hotel in Oneonta and crash there until Sunday or Monday.

lmao. Yes Delta. How did I forget about him. Delta for snowkeeper of KROC LOL. I stopped reporting to the NWS and just use my snowboard for my own records, it’s kind of half assed as I do it to CoCoRahS way and only clear it off once every morning between 6 and 7 am so my numbers may be a little lower with settling and compaction. I will go out and measure and clear off the board if we’re getting a moderate to heavy event where not clearing until morning would greatly skew the numbers. For example for today’s event I had a lousy .5” this morning then that melted and it snowed all day and accumulated and melted off and on but since I won’t clear it again until tomorrow morning I may only have 1 or 2” on the board by morning so my storm total may only be 1.5” or 2.5” when KBUF clears much more frequently allowing them to account for the melting and reaccumulating that takes place so they’ll definitely have a higher total than me in a wimpy event like this.

Except that was a temperature sensor error not human error lol. Maybe ROC would be better off with an automated snow sensor to measure like they do at the SNOTEL sites in the Sierra Nevada’s haha. Or pay Dave from ROC or Vortmax to do it so it’s accurate lol.

Nice thanks dude! Now I can see what it looks like before I get to work haha. Although it’s crazy from your house to my work the difference in snow sometimes. Even today there had to be double the snow at my work just 2 miles south of your house. I can sometimes see a difference in snow just driving down Sunset which is exactly a mile long from the north side at Camp Rd to the South side at Pleasant St.

So KROC ends up with a foot by morning?

Weird, definitley all snow here. Correlation Coefficient shows nothing but snow as well.

We shall see. Not expecting more than another inch at best here, if I’m wrong I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

0645 PM SNOW 5 SSE PAINESVILLE 41.67N 81.21W 12/01/2020 E22.5 INCH LAKE OH PUBLIC Over 22” just NE of Cleveland and right on the lake too. Temps not a worry there that’s for sure! They’re still getting pounded too.

Some places just east of there were nearing 20 inches as of 4pm. Some areas there might tickle 30 inches as it’s just blitzing snow there. Good for them. They’re usually jealous looking up at all the snow blowing off the eastern end of the lake into Ski County and BUF metro.

Snow continues to fall here at the lakeshore in Hamburg but really having a rough time accumulating. Checking my Nest Cam at home in Amherst it’s snowing steadily but there’s actually less snow now than there was a few hours ago as temps are just above freezing around 33 degrees. Without elevation we’re going to struggle to accumulate until the sun goes down or we can get some heavier rates this afternoon. Whole different ball game as you get above 900-1000 feet as temps drop just below freezing.

Good news but 19 million is a drop in the bucket compared to the 93 million that was requested by the over 5000 businesses. They only have enough money right now to pay out the 19 million to 1300 businesses of the 5000+ that requested it.

Is it me or does the Low seem to be nearly over BUF when it was forecast to be much further NE than this.

Think about it, if it weren’t for Lake Erie we would have the climate of Pittsburgh with how fast we seem to be warming.

Wolf your in a great spot! I would never be moving from where you are lol. Even events that seem marginal for you turnout great. I’m jealous haha. I got a solid dusting this morning

Hey Tug Hill Matt was just looking at a national temperature map on Wunderground and couldn’t help but notice that you guys are warmer near the Cuse (46-49 degrees) than almost all of the Florida Panhandle (40-44 degrees). It’s currently snowing down in Georgia and Alabama. Really is crazy how much warmer it seems to get there than almost anywhere else in the entire Northeast. Sitting at 38 here currently.

Much heavier rates there to overcome marginal temps vs the rates we will see here. In fact the last few runs of the hi res models have backed off accumulations for here. I’d be surprised to see more than 2 inches of slush around here over the next 48 hours. Whole different story just SW of here with elevation. Even around Cassadaga SW to the NY/PA line the rates will be much heavier and having an extra 800-1000’+ of elevation will make all the difference.

Yeah both NAM products have some snow the majority of Tuesday and Wednesday. Even if we don’t accumulate that much it should be rather snowy for a couple days. I think 2-4” is possible by Wednesday afternoon in lower elevations with much more SW.

And this is pre thanksgiving. Wait until a week or so from now. 15%+ likely coming.

Wish this thing would have cut over MI/OH and set us up with a nice SW flow for a day or two. This things looking like a bust. Maybe 1-3” of Synoptic snow in WNY if this thing trends right. Precip shield has really backed off in recent runs with less phasing/further east trend. Yeah we may get in on the Synoptics of the storm but there’s not gonna be much to get in on. On to the next one.