lakeeffectkid383

Brought back the lake effect snow warning. Not the watch. It now goes from a winter storm watch to a lake effect snow warning if upgraded. Quite silly IMO but better than having now LES products and only WSW ones..

Far from a lock, this could be an event where Hamburg to South Buffalo get 1-2 feet where Cheektowaga/Amherst sees next to nothing. It could not be but nothing is pointing that this band is definitely making it up here for sure yet.

Here’s how I look at things at this early juncture. For us in WNY it’s looking increasingly likely that we are going to see a decent hit of synoptic snowfall with anywhere from 3-6” looking like a good bet. The little details of where this storm goes and the exact degree of the wind direction is going to make a big difference for us in BUF. The 12z runs have been encouraging to me that we are going to see some impacts from lake effect in the BUF metro (wether that’s Southtowns vs Northtowns is still TBD). I could see 1 inch at BUF or 1 foot or more but the biggest thing to take away is the chances of a white Christmas are better this year in WNY than they have been in several years and that has me excited.

The potential is definitely there for significant lake effect snow behind but still far too early. I’m definitely getting excited but am tempering my expectations for at least 2 more days

Wouldn’t even think twice. I’d go snowless for 5 years for a Super Bowl win. Our winters are becoming garbage around here anyways lol.

I mean I wouldn’t be mad if we spread the love and the whole region sees 4-8” which is looking like the max that would come out of one of these waves riding a front scenarios. I just selfishly would love to see a SW flow for days and huge totals even if it’s not over my house lol. Will be interesting to see how this evolves over the next several days as I would not be surprised if a solution ends up as one that’s not even being presented as of yet.

No thanks to the Euro here in BUF. There goes all our lake effect of that was the case. Luckily there’s 10 more runs of the Euro and 20 of the GFS before this event even begins.

Lock in 40” for BGM again?

5 days is an eternity in model land, example the storm just a few days ago. The good thing is the signal is there for a big event and that has been rather consistent run after run but small changes can have big impacts especially when your dealing with rain vs snow from the storm riding up the front and where it ends up north of us in Canada will have an impact on the wind direction. I think this could be a great set up both synoptically and lake effect but I also could see a scenario the storm cuts more to our west and lands up over us then due north of us causing us rain from the storm along the front and a wind that’s more Westerly\WNW as the storm goes north of us. I won’t feel more comfortable until Sunday night and even that’s pushing it.

Yeah 00z is even better because winds back more SW than previous runs as the storm ends up tracking a little further west along that front as it moves into Canada. Would be a few days of nice SW slow after the storm riding the front drops several inches. Would definitley be a white Xmas for most. I couldn’t care less about the storm along the front, give me a few days of a WSW to SW flow and I’d be thrilled even if I’m not in the bullseye.

You guys should be alright with 1-2” of rain. You guys “only” had about 2” of QPF in the event. In Nov 2014 there was upwards of 6” of QPF in the 70-90”+ that fell over the course of 3 days, then was followed up with several inches of rain and everything fared okay flood wise. There was roof collapses but many of those started before the rain came from the snowpack itself. Hopefully you guys don’t have to worry about roof collapses with the lesser amount of snow/QPF and the amount of time between the end of the snowstorm yesterday morning and if/when the heavy rain comes next week.

I remember this one! I was only 10 years old but I remember having to shovel my Grandmas driveway and walkway before people came over for Christmas dinner. Was a lot of shoveling haha! What I find more crazy is we had 6 major events in a 12 year span for a Christmas but then haven’t had one in the next 16 years, that’s absolutely insane and just quite the string of bad luck. Hopefully it that’ll change this year and put an end to that drought.

All about that EPO though. Not sure what that’s forecast to be but I’m pretty sure we’ve had all 3 of the other indices you mentioned lined up already this season with nothing but warmth because of a bad EPO. Better than a positive AO and NAO and neg PNA though so hopefully we can get something out of it.

Amazing! If you have 44-45 otg you easily received over 50” with compaction no doubt in my mind. Final total is 2.7 inches here. Crazy you guys were seeing that in a half an hour last night.

I was going to snow chase to BGM but didn’t think they’d get nearly this much, plus I was too lazy to drive there lol. Absolutely pissed I didn’t pull the trigger.

I think BGM lands up 36”+ ALB may top 20” Awesome storm for them. Truly fun to watch even from afar. Pretty crazy when you can pull rates comparable with our top lake effect events.

Snowing hardest it has whole event. Probably about 1” an hour right now. Wish this would last a few hours but it looks pretty transient with drying out behind it.

If he’s just measuring depth he’s likely above 30” at this point. Once you get over 18” especially this quickly that stuff can compact at 1”/hr +

Doubtful. At least BUF we only have around and inch. You guys gotta be well past that in Cuse by now. Radar has looked a lot better there than here.

Yeah moderate snow here. Probably only about 3/4” to 1” here but roads are slicker than hell. Only 20 degrees so that snow is really sticking well to the roads. It’s funny it actually looks like there’s more snow on the roads/sidewalks than on the grass which is unusual to see. Watching Hartford,CT on TWC and it’s RIPPING. Gotta be awesome from BGM out to HFD and PVD.

Half a dusting. I counted 3 sugar grains under the light in the last 30 seconds. If it keeps up like this I may have a 3/4 dusting by morning!

Yeah we’re gonna do horrible here. KBUF to IAG will have the snow hole just like the NAM predicted. Congrats (no sarcasm lol) to those who are gonna cash in, seems like ROC may do significantly better than anticipated , at least they’re off to a good start. can still see some sunshine poking through the clouds off to the North lmao.

Not a flake in Amherst. Dry as a bone. DP of 16 and RH of 60%.

Not feeling it here. Too much dry air this far north fighting the precip coming from the new primary taking over near the coast.