lakeeffectkid383

According to ECDOH 25% of deaths are under 70 not 5 percent.

Their cases and deaths are next to nothing compared to Erie County. We have seen nearly 1000 cases and 100 deaths in the last week here. Broome County which is their most populous county has only 338 total cases and 22 deaths. That’s almost our new daily average in Erie County. We’re seeing about 200 plus new cases a day, in part because of increased testing, and 12-24 deaths a day. We have more deaths (357 as of yesterday) than they have total cases. I can understand areas such as Southern Tier, CNY, North Country, and even Finger Lakes (Rochester) reopening pre June 6th.

I know the pause order was extended through June 6th for all of NYS but it did say if a region meets all 7 of the Govonors phase 1 reopening metrics they may be able to open prior to June 6th. I know WNY has only 3 of 7 metrics met so I’m not so sure we will be meeting those criteria prior to that date.

I’m not sure if this is true or not but here’s the article. https://buffalonews.com/2020/05/08/emminger-tests-positive-again-for-covid-19/ This is why more research needs to be done to find out wether or not antibodies mean immunity because those are two totally different things. I’ve seen evidence supporting both theories and I think it’s far too early to say anything conclusively either way.

500k is still approx 15 years of flu deaths and where do you get half the deaths would have died from almost any illness? Just because someone has a comorbidity doesn’t mean they would have just died from “any illness”. If that was the case your seasonal flu deaths would be much higher than they are. You don’t see 80,000 people dying in 2 months from seasonal flu. You can’t just say because they’re old they would have died anyways so their deaths don’t count?

The antibody test are interesting to find out how much of the population has been exposed so far and I think that is an important statistic so we can get a much more accurate infection rate and death rate however it’s still not known if you have a positive antibody test if you can become reinfected or have a “flare up” like other diseases such a mono have. The Town of Tonawanda supervisor just tweeted yesterday (as well as on the News) that after testing positive for Covid 5 weeks ago and then recovering, feeling better, and having a negative test result 2 weeks ago, and a positive antibody test, he then just found out 2 days ago he tested positive for active infection again after feeling sick again. There needs to be much more research done on if having positive antibodies mean immunity or not because it seems more and more people who have positive antibodies are able to contact the disease if exposed again or have a “flare up” of the disease that never fully left their system which would then make them contagious as a possible spreader once again.

If you assumed that 60 percent of the US population would need to be infected that is 192,000,000 people infected. If you use the antibody numbers instead of the confirmed numbers you come up with a death rate at the lowest of 0.5 - 0.6 %. Multiply that death rate times the percentage of the population needed for herd immunity you get 960,000 - 1,152,000 deaths. Even if the death rate lowers as the “most vulnerable” population is “depleted” your probably talking around 750,000 deaths in the U.S. if everything goes good. That’s more then double the deaths from the last 10 years of flu seasons combined (337,200 deaths from 2010-2019 seasons according to the CDC)...

It says linked to one man, not one man. It says in 2 days 40 people tested positive after coming in contact with the man at a nightclub. Keep the clubs open and those 40 could effect 40 more each which is 1600 and so and and so forth...

Would there not be Herd Immunity before decades took place? Seems silly to me.

Fine by me. Patriots have a few asterisk next to theirs too and they still count lol.

4 prime time games are tied for most in Franchise history. Beats the 0 we had last year besides thanksgiving and then being flexed into SNF against the Steelers.

This must be way old. We’re over 75,000 deaths. We were at 33,513 deaths like a month ago lol. Not saying it’s not accurate but definitely outdated.

I know I agree but the NYS official death count not including probables is 20597 and the NYC probable count is 5359 for a total of 25,956 which is the number being reported by World O Meters. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Mark Poloncarz and ECDOH also have stated numerous times they are not counting presumed deaths in their count right now only confirmed which is what I believe the rest of NYS is also doing outside of NYC.

They are reported separately and NYC is the only Place in NYS using probable deaths. The 323 deaths in Erie County are all confirmed.

Which is it ? Lol

The last few days I’ve seen a huge lax by people for sure. Way more cars on the road, people out and about, even went to get Chick Fil A for the first fast food I’ve eaten in over a month and the line was about 1/2 mile long. Driving by some stores you could barely see an open parking spot which is weird because I thought stores that were open had to have a capacity reduction where only like 15-20% of capacity could be let in at one time. They can extend the pause order all they’d like but if people don’t want to stay home they’re not going to, especially when things aren’t being enforced.

Anyone know why the last 3 days NY has stopped doing it’s evening count of probable deaths?

Still the cheapest gas prices since the 90s! $1.15 a gallon is nothing to be upset about ! I did fill up at Doogies last week for $0.79 a gallon! Cheapest gas of my lifetime for sure. Filled up my entire tank for under 10 bucks.

Got one and said the same thing “oh great, what do I owe them now” . Had my taxes filed with HR Block in 2014 and didn’t get the additional “piece of mind garuntee” which was like $100 extra (on top of the $275 I was already paying to have my taxes filed) and they made a mistake on my taxes and I landed up owing the IRS over $3000. Thought this was another one of those mistakes (although I now do my own taxes, cheaper and so easy now that I don’t have income from multiple states).

I would for free but there’s no reason to pay $119 for a home kit when even if you have had it and have been exposed it’s meaningless at this point. I guess for a piece of mind to know you’ve had it and recovered? However there needs to be more research into what having antibodies to this virus really means. As far as this being serious, I know numerous people who work in the healthcare industry (one a nurse at the St Joes Covid-19 campus in Cheektowaga and one a nurse at Mercy Hospital is SB) and both have said it’s horrific and they think it can’t be understated how serious this virus is even for those who are young and relatively healthy. This many people don’t die from the flu here even in the worst of flu seasons.

Rochester is defined as finger lakes according to Cuomo. And it’s a hot spot in the Finger Lakes region but Buffalo (Erie County) has 2.5x that in cases, 3400+ and we have over double the deaths (254 compared to 113). I could see it going either way for Finger Lakes region.

Correct, Trump and pence outlined this in their reopening plan last week or the week prior. Cuomo has been saying for the last week that in order for phase 1 to happen there needs to be a 14 day decline in hospitalizations for that region. Considering we just had 3-4 days of increasing hospitalizations in Erie county followed by a 1 person decline in hospitalizations yesterday were no where close.Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz stated in his press conference yesterday we weren’t even on day one of this yet. This is the reason Cuomo wants to open up the state in regions because in some regions (CNY/North Country) there has been a decline of hospitalizations but not here.

It sounds like Cuomo will address this tomorrow, at least he said he’s going to make the decision on schools. I would bet my house on it that schools will be closed the rest of this school year. Just too many things to go wrong over 4 weeks of in school learning left. How would kids social distance on buses, in hallways, etc... as far as businesses reopening May 15th I could see him letting certain regions of Upstate begin phase 1 of the federal reopening plan if numbers continue to stay low/or decline even further. I wouldn’t expect NYC/Long Island/ and WNY to begin phase 1 May 15th as there’s still too many cases and in WNY there hasn’t been any decline in cases/hospitalizations what so ever and Cuomo has even said we are the “hot spot” of Upstate. If I had to venture a guess the North Country and CNY would have the best chance at beginning phase 1 May 15th.

Best part is NY gives the fed 26B a year more than it receives from the fed. McConnells state of KY receives 30B a year more than it gives, yet they want to criticize NY and other blue states, especially when they are the hardest impacted by the virus? Right now should be a time of non partisan unity for the good of helping all Americans regardless of party lines. People on both sides are struggling immensely and all the blame game does is cause a stalemate on getting anything meaningful accomplished.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html For those who don’t believe under reporting of Covid deaths are real. Over 4,000 deaths in NYC alone being underreported. Some of these are likely due to other illnesses with people being afraid to go to hospitals/seek medical treatment in fear of Covid.