lakeeffectkid383

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html For those who don’t believe under reporting of Covid deaths are real. Over 4,000 deaths in NYC alone being underreported. Some of these are likely due to other illnesses with people being afraid to go to hospitals/seek medical treatment in fear of Covid.

Do you know why some days New York reports deaths twice a day (usually morning and about 5-8pm) but today for instance we only get the morning numbers? Just curious. I know the evening numbers are the suspected deaths but any idea why they report them some days and not others?

Yep Erie county has hit new peak in hospitalizations and highest ICU count in last 2 weeks. We still haven’t fully peaked here yet I don’t think. Thus why Cuomo is not allowing elective surgeries in Erie County and we will likely be next to last as far as opening up compared to the other regions of NYS.

Agree but if you can ramp up the testing to the point that your testing the entire population then even asymptotic people would know if they have it and could isolate to prevent further spreading. Harvard University said testing in the US needs to increase to 20,000,000-30,000,000 test a day in the U.S which is 600,000,000 a month (yes double the population of entire U.S.). To me that seems undoable, as I just don’t know how we would ever be able to produce that many test even with the Defense Production Act. The Federal Government stated at their press conference that they would soon like to ramp up to 6 million test a month which is obviously well short of Harvard’s numbers but is way more than the current 6 million test to date over the last 2.5 - 3 months.

Germany’s R0 went from 0.7 10 days ago to 1.0 today since beginning to reopen. Once you get above 1.0 your back to a fast rate of infection. If you do not test like crazy, trace, isolate while reopening the RO is going to jump up and cases are going to skyrocket again like they did 3 weeks to a month ago. There has to be a strategic plan and more research with antibodies and what it means as far as being able to catch the virus again even if asymptomatic and spread it before we begin widespread opening. We can’t just say the economy is suffering so let’s just send everyone back to work to get things going again and hope for the best. That’s just dangerous and wreck-less.

That is key I think to reopening everything. There’s still not even evidence that if you have an antibody you are safe from contracting/spreading it again.

Okay but with more people contracting the virus with a lax of social distancing more people contract the virus and thus more people die. A .6-.8% death rate is insane for a virus that is as highly transmitable as this. This isn’t MERS it SARS that had a much higher death rate but was much less infectious.

If you have 220,000 deaths in 3 months worldwide which is also severely under counted considering there’s thousands of people not counted each day globally because they didn’t get tested or didn’t go into a hospital we will have 1,000,000 plus deaths in a year with extreme social distancing, face coverings, other precautions. This is far deadlier than a common cold or even the flu and I’m so tired of people comparing it to it. The data has shown time and time again that it’s like comparing apples to oranges but yet this argument gets brought up endlessly.

Sure is that part of the story, I believe it. But do you think they would spend billions of dollars to come up with a vaccine for an “illness” of common colds that are relatively benign compared to other illnesses when they can make billions of dollars by selling OTC medications to combat the symptoms of an illness that isn’t deadly what so ever.

The common cold doesn’t have a vaccine because it isn’t that severe compared to even the flu let alone Covid-19. There’s also not a vaccine because with its low severity the OTC drug industry makes billions of dollars every year off people who just have a cold.

Yes the death rate is that high. Even if you use the NYS antibody numbers for how many people may already be affected by this the death rate is still 0.8 %. Right now the death rate is like 7-8% which is obviously way to high but the 0.8% death rate is 8 times the death rate of the flu and that’s with strict social distancing in place.

You are correct that it is a mutated version of the common cold however that doesn’t mean anything. The common cold doesn’t have a death rate of 0.6-1.0%. The common cold doesn’t kill 60,000-100,000 Americans in 2 months time with strict social distancing. I agree we can’t be on lockdown forever but to say this is the same as the common cold is ignorant. We also know to reach herd immunity over 1,000,000 people would die.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/28/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-terrible/index.htm i also spoke to my father in law who is in charge of the largest hospital in Wyoming and he said he’s been told the antibody test are only 60 percent accurate at best with lots of false positives. So all those numbers that make it seem like there’s 10-12x the number of positives can go out the window. Is there way more positive cases then we have confirmed by positive test? Absolutley, but not to the extent the antibody test are making it seem.

This is the percent of positive covid test that tell you if you have covid-19 at that moment in time, this is not the percentage for the antibody test just so it’s clear... WNY does not have 17 percent of population with antibodies already.

With testing ramping up we should see daily cases increase as well. Cuomo wants to double NYS daily testing from 20,000 a day now to 40,000 a day within the next few weeks. We should be over a million confirmed cases in the US by Monday or Tuesday at the latest.

Yep even if these rates are correct and it takes 60 percent of population to get herd immunity your still talking more than 1 million dead. 1,344,000 dead to get herd immunity with the deaths rates based on those test results.

Congrats! My fiancé is due in 7 weeks. It’s definitely exciting but also scary with everything going on right now. Would this be your first?

If you think we’re only going to have 67,000 covid deaths your out of your mind. We’re already over 50,000 and still losing people at 1700-2500 a day with many areas yet to have reach peak. We’ll have 67,000 by mid may at the latest and only continue to grow from there. I don’t think there’s anyway we come out of this “first wave” with less than 100,000 deaths. as far as injecting ourselves with disinfectant, Lysol just came out with a warning which really is sad people can’t use common sense enough to realize this is the dumbest thing the president has ever said. https://www.wgrz.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/president-trump-says-heat-humidity-could-help-fight-virus/507-608c0892-f577-4d1c-ae34-6ebe61514807

Don’t you know he’s talking about this??

Is this even real? If it is I bet money someone dies from injecting themselves with bleach or blinds themselves looking directly into UV light trying to "clean themselves".

I agree with Rich that this is far too small a sample size though. I know people who thought they had it a month ago go to get the antibody test because they couldn’t get tested at the time when they were sick because they didn’t have enough test. Obviously the results are going to be skewed when more people who have had symptoms are the ones going to get tested vs people who have never had any symptoms. There’s no doubt there’s far more people that are infected that confirmed cases but do we really think there’s 10x as many people infected as currently known, I’m not sure. Even if that’s the case you still have a 0.6 death rate which is 6 times deadlier than seasonal flu...

So if you say 3.6 % of Erie Counties population has been infected that’s 33073 people. If there’s been 188 deaths thus far that’s 0.56% death rate. Erie county has stated they have not included any probable deaths in their figures though so you can probably add another 50 deaths or so considering NYC added over 5000 probable deaths thus far. So even if your closer to 230 deaths from Covid your at 0.7% death rate which doesn’t sound bad, until you realize that’s 7 times the death rate of the seasonal flu, and that’s with extensive social distancing and closures.

What?! That's absolutely insane and moronic. What a joke. That's like the car companies allowing deferred payments on loans and leases are charging $200 fee for each month you have to defer. Thats 2/3 of most people's car payments.

I know in New York there are deferring mortgage paymnets for 3 months as of now too and that might even be a Federal thing not just NY.

I thought they said they were going to be doing voluntary furloughs but didn’t hear they were going to be laying off that many people mandatorily. Maybe the Governor allowing elective surgeries again in some counties (not Erie) will save some jobs?