The Iceman

Down to 6" snow depth that should solidify into a glacier tonight before the next event.

I'm surprised no one posted that we got NAMD at 18z....whoa mama!

Same corridor imo but it's 95 in pa and NJ turnpike. Also, it doesn't turn into 295 anymore since they built the extension in bristol.

Eps is a bit further north than the op. You can tell it brings the mix line just south of 95. This is about the last run the ensembles are useful, so let's hope thats as far north as we get.

Seasonal trend has seen the mix line come further 50-75 miles north but this storm has been a bit different as confluence to our north has been modeled stronger as we've gotten closer which hasn't typically been the case. We will have to monitor tomorrow if the seasonal trend of ticking north comes to fruition. If it does, I expect the mix line to hit the Philly area and immediate burbs in lower bucks/montco/mercer. It is almost certainly going to be all frozen though at this point which is great news. If we see that north tick, and I put it at a big if at this point, I would probably lower totals around 95 to 3-6" but I still think this will meet winter storm warning criteria for 95% of the region even if we see more mixing than currently progged.

First call: 4-8" along and west of the NJ turnpike with 10" lollis N and W of 95. Won't be surprised if someone hits a foot in that area if these long duration solutions verify but will have to see as we get closer. For now I think double digit totals will be the max. 2-4" south and east of the turnpike with heavy mixing of sleet. Should still remain all frozen though and many places on the shore should see their biggest event of the season. Cautiously optimistic for a region wide winter storm warning event. Should hopefully see plenty of pink on the mt holly page tomorrow.

Euro is a nice hit, definitely further south with the heaviest banding on the WAA snows than other guidance which is where we want it right now. The event is all snow for everyone except s jersey which gets some mixing towards but also gets the most qpf. Exactly where we want to be right now. I'm cautiously optimistic for a solid winter storm warning event region wide. Euro is similar to the rgem in its duration. Would be close to a 24 hour storm if they are correct.

Sunday morning is looking cold and may trend colder with the fresh snowpack in place. Icon and gfs indicate possible single digits towards 95, Poconos maybe have a shot at below 0. Should radiate nicely.

Larry Cosgrove said in his recent newsletter than winter won't relent until second half of March. He seems to be on the right track if guidance is to be believed. We get a brief warm up next week(more like seasonal temps), then it appears the cold may return after that. The seasonal pattern has been to keep the blocking in place so I wont be surprised if it bounces back.

Since you're new I'll give you the time frames that the 12z models generally begin rolling out. 845 am - NAM 930 am - ICON 10 am - RGEM 1030 am - GFS/Para GFS 11 am - CMC 12 pm - UKMET 1 pm - Euro

Gefs/eps/geps all seem to want to bring north atlantic blocking back towards the end of the month into March. Thursday may not be the last hurrah? It looks like we will also be battling the se ridge but that honestly may play to our advantage in March as long as we have the blocking. Potentially more fun ahead.. We have had an incredible run of epic Marches besides last year. If we get another March mauling, we could see some spots get into the top 10 seasonal snowfalls. Pretty crazy considering we were in close to a strong nina.

Same at my house. Easily 6" left but may be closer to 8-10" in spots. Going to be a rough day though meltwise with temps in the mid 40s. Still think I won't have any bare patches heading into Thurs.

I'm with ralph, every storm this year has ticked north as we got closer. I have a feeling that 95 and immediate burbs see much more sleet than currently progged . These warm layers are notoriously tough to get correct and many times they end up further north than modeled. Trust me I want a 6-8" storm to finish out the year, but I just have a feeling this one will end up 2-4" of cement for 95 And the burbs. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on the lehigh valley taking the brunt of this one. We'll see though, I'm going to miss the tracking, this month has been a blast in that regard.

Yeah 9 times out of 10 we see 10:1 ratios around here. It's too early to know if we:ll see anything higher than those ratios but 10:1 is always a good benchmark for these kind of storms in these parts. Also important to note that any sleet being factored into those maps is more like 3:1 ratio.

Mt holly first call... Looks good

Picked up .53" of rain last night. Currently 37 degrees and warming. Snow pack has taken a hit but honestly looks a lot better than I was anticipating. Let's get some cold in here to freeze it into a glacier before Thursday.

33 and heavy rain... Did I hear thunder?

31.5 and light freezing rain

2-4" snow/sleet ending as light rain is realistic expectations are this time. Anything more is gravy but I agree with ralph I'm betting this comes north some as we get closer and we see much more mixing than currently advertised. The cool thing is we should thump hard for snow for a good 1-3 hours. Should be a nice topper to regain what we are about to lose tonight. I bet I lose close to half of my 10" tonight. That half is going to be rock solid though come Wednesday.

It's all yours you've been highlighting this period for weeks, it only seems right you start the thread even if it evolved much different than we originally thought.

Thanks for the clarifications Mike, appreciate you taking the time to explain!

Off topic but imo that is pretty asinine reasoning for mt holly to keep the ice storm warning. What is the point of having criteria to meet for the ice storm/winter storm warning if it can be just be issued based on what they believe potential impacts will be? Either it will likely meet the warning criteria and an ice storm warning should be issued or it will likely fall short of that criteria, such as this case, and a winter weather advisory should be issued instead. What's the point of having accumulation criteria to meet otherwise? Or they should just redo their warnings and advisories to include "potential impacts" and scrap accumulation based criteria.

Based on their new ice accumulation map, I'm surprised mt holly hasn't cancelled the wwa's and downgraded the ice storm warning. Seems pretty clear they won't verify now.

If I remember correctly, that year wasn't great for snow cover despite the big totals. We got a big rainer after dec 19 storm like before Christmas that wiped most of that pack, then we had another big warm up I believe after snowmageddon. I'm pretty sure the snowpack was almost erased by the storm at the end of February hit. Then March that year torched. I bet he finished with like 30-40 snow cover days despite the large snow totals

You were literally discounting every other model yesterday because of the euro but okay