JerseyWx

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

In all seriousness this absolutely blows, no threats in sight now. Spring cannot come fast enough 

Well who knows what Febraury, especially mid-month on, may hold.  Maybe even the first week or two of March we can score something.  I know it's not ideal, but a lot of years in the last 10 or so have been really dependent upon relatively short but incredible stretches like March 18 or Feb 21.  The stuff like 13-14 just doesn't happen anymore.

This is a really impressive arctic shot funneling in from Canada.  Even as it moderates by the time it gets to us, highs below freezing and nights in the teens will be a huge turnaround from this time last year.  Any snow we get will have some staying power.

@rgwp96Measured 4.25" here at around 9:30pm.  Now it's a mixture of sleet and rain at 650'.  Not bad and fits within the 4-6" range I was expecting.  We'll see what happens overnight.

Hoping for a huge bust here considering how bad the river flooding situation was last week.

Regardless, looks like a pretty grey and damp few days until the weekend.

I'm curious how this winter will play out as compared to 15-16.  At this point back then, I still hadn't recorded any snow (like this year), and would only get a half inch until the middle of January.  Then came the big storm, and a cold snap in February with some smaller storms.

Then came 17-18 with that crazy March and 20-21 with the February blitz.  A lot of our better years were backloaded since 2015 and featured a mega storm (March 8, 2018 and Feb. 1, 2021 were both just under 2 feet IMBY).

Over 5 inches here, really more than I expected.  Lot of roads closed and backed up, including parts of route 23. 

Need to dry out for awhile now, been too wet of a fall.

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Talks about actual pattern = loves warm weather.  This place is truly amazing.  

Exactly...x10

Making it barely tolerable in here.  Such a shame how things have changed since I joined 9 years ago.  So much to learn back then.

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

December 2015 really did seem like a tipping point. 

The temperature acceleration since then has been nothing short of extraordinary. 

Anyone still denying the warming trend is a complete imbecile. 

I don't disagree, but I'm not sure that's the problem I'm seeing on this forum, to me it's two things.

1. People expect too much, too soon.  I was just paging through my records and it's not uncommon to get very little snow in December, especially since 2015.  Our prime is always January through the beginning of March.  

2. The cold camp is way too focused on only seeing what they want to see.  Any sort of model run, chart, graph, etc. that shows a hint of warmth is wrong or the poster is just a warm troll, even if they are a credible member.  Yet you could show a 300 hour GFS run that has some sort of cold tucked in there, and boom it's gonna snow in 2 weeks.

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

60 degrees at 10 pm on 12/10 crazy 

It'll drop down, 44 here now.  1.5" so far.

29 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Tremendous rains over the past 2 hours. Easily pushing an 1” already. 

Same here.  Close to an inch. 

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Would you rather us be all positive and sugar coat it?

I guess they just prefer everyone lies so they can hear what they want to hear, just like when the September heatwave was being downplayed.  

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

November continues to be one of the few months of the year that is able to reliably produce colder departures at times. 

The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. 

 

……….EWR…..ISP

Dec…+1.5….+1.5

Jan….+1.2…+1.3

Feb….+0.5….+0.5

 

Mar….+0.4….+0.6

Apr….+0.5…..+0.6

May...+0.6….+0.9

 

Jun….+0.3….+0.6

Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1

Aug...+0.6….+0.9

 

Sep….+1.0….+1.3

Oct…..+0.9..+1.4

Nov….+0.2..+0.5

Interesting how it's more noticeable warming in the fall and early winter, yet spring hasn't shown the same increase.  Seems like it stays warmer longer, but takes awhile to break out of our chilly springs.

4 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Very rarely do we get two terrible years in a row. At least since 2002 I believe.


.

But it's certainly more  of a possibility as we've been warming recently, and I mean If you can get two great years in a row, the opposite is also true.

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

No point looking at model runs in the long range.

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is active and cold in the long range.  

23 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Another shit weekend after a nice week. Unreal. 

Worst Fall in awhile.  Even this week has been a lot more clouds than sun here.

58 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

For a lot of people it hurts birthday and family plans. Not just about you. 

Yeah this is one of the worst fall's in awhile.  Just terrible weekend after weekend, which is when most of us would like to actually enjoy the weather and seasonal activities.

Man this front really cleared out the humidity and moisture.  48 currently with some wind still kicking up.  Crystal clear skies.

Had some very heavy bursts of downpours today, could barely see the road for a few minutes.  Just under an inch total.

How long is this piece of garbage system going to last, wasn't Ophelia enough?  Still raining here.

Terrible outcome in parts of NJ and the city, such a disastrous storm. We don't need rain for a long time.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We are going into October

So it can't be above normal?

Approaching 2.5" here.  Really hoping the rain Friday clears out early so we get a nice weekend.  Been a miserable three days and it's not like tomorrow is looking nice either.

Just at an inch here for today, and 0.5 yesterday, so looking at around 1.5" so far.

This weekend was one of the worst in quite awhile.  Hoping that by mid-week we start a gradual warming trend into October.

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

And yet incredibly boring 

Relatively, yeah.  But I have to say this summer did have some pretty intense storms here, one of which produced some of the heaviest rain I've seen, and for the longest duration.  Naturally early fall is one of the more quiet times around here, as you don't really have much going on besides this kind of crap like we had this weekend.

This has been an interesting year for turnarounds.  Cold shot in December, then a warm and nearly snowless winter.  Early heat in April, then a cool start to summer.  Hot start to September, and now a near normal finish.

The weather has been keeping us on our toes and guessing.

Ended the day with a little over an inch.

Looks like a really nice 4 day stretch setting up, sunny and dry with cool nights.  Then rainier and more humid starting this weekend.

3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

it’s nice out again

absolutely beautiful forecast in front of us if it verifies, indian summer conditions

Yeah looks like a pretty great stretch.  My forecast is calling for a string of mid-70's by day, and mid-50's at night starting on Sunday.