JerseyWx

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

still waiting for my first frost. the lantana is going strong

Crazy, already had 4 days this month at or below freezing.  Today was 28.

Really nice day today.  Deep blue skies.

Actually got a little sunburn on my face.

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Summary message: I could not go back to review the OHP between 16z-20z/30 for the unfortunate fatalities related to only very short fuse prediction of 1" in 15 minutes over NYC... results as cellar fatalities, again, as in prior city FF.  That's the part that didnt work out in the thread.

Otherwise see graphics below

1) CPC D8 1"+ heavy rain forecast (MDT risk)

2) CoCoRaHs region red and orange dot verification of the main axis of heavy rain (see legend)

3) NYC subforum rainfall

4) EPS 06z/31 5H... note negative tilt lobe to NJ

5) EPS 18z/30 12 hr 170M HFC over NJ...  large 12 hr HFC's need to be contended with as event concerns...given adequate moisture.

You can use these graphics to go back to p1 of this thread to verify the Sunday 10/26 post.  Modeling was helpful for sure.  GEFS rainfall and max gusts were terrible as compared to the EPS and EPSAI modeling. 

I'm near those red dots in northern Morris county.  3 inches+ around here.  Very heavy downpours at times.  Needed some rain, and we got it.

Got hit with a nice batch this morning. 

0.50 total.

42 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Depends on where you live, how your living space is oriented and your comfort level.

 

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37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

depends where you are and how you radiate at night...had a few AC nights here but not many since then

True, but we don't radiate extremely well here.  I guess I have a very good tolerance for warmth..

31 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

You're in the northwest suburbs. Here next to Manhattan that would be ludicrous with all the 70 degree uhi nights.

I can sleep easily on a 70 degree night, but I agree the UHI is way worse than out here.

21 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Were you not in the mid to upper 80s the last few days?

Absolutely was.  But it's been perfectly comfortable.

14 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I dont think we can safely put away the AC till mid November these days. Sigh.

I mean we haven't run the AC since like mid August.  Sleeping with the windows open ever since.

The weather through Monday looks absolutely stunning.

No other way to say it.

2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

It's disgustingly hot. Today has a mid July feel.

No it doesn't, today is beautiful.  Not even 80 degrees yet IMBY. Granted I know some places are warmer, but still nothing like the middle of July.

Just now, Pequest said:

Definitely overperforming tonight here in Warren County, NJ. Closing in on 2 and a half inches in Hackettstown and still coming down. Much needed rain. 

0.7" here, gladly take it.  Been a mix of light to moderate rain, with some brief, but torrential downpours as well.

2 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Finally raining in chester! Also detoured into Peapack as 206 is closed for a brush fire. 

Feels like I haven't tracked some good convection in ages.  Hope today and Saturday pan out!

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, numerous top 10 driest summer reports in the Northeast.

 

You would think a dry summer like this would have been warmer.  This month especially has been a rare August where the air condition window units were barely used.

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah being out in the dakotas just east of the mountain time zone it was still light at like 930 back in mid July. Of course it was also still dark at 6am

Our sunsets in summer are late enough IMO.  It's winter that sucks the life out of you, when you could see darkness approaching at like 3PM

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

No more 90 degrees, summer is over

it's hard to have a hot day in September when it's been so cool in August (after that one heatwave I mean)

Oh c'mon, you of all people know better.  Summer ain't over for another month 

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Right through the north part of my hometown.

Many years ago, before they opened that section of 287, we biked up that road and climbed that rock face in cub scouts. 

Mountainside park is great in that very area too.  You can see NYC from parts of the trails.  Well for that matter, you can see the tip of the skyline coming down the top of the Riverdale hill lol.

9 hours ago, FPizz said:

It was actually good here, but driving north up 287 for work into NY, the color north of route 80 was amazing.  I tried to take pics while driving, this was the best I could get. Going 80 and taking pics not recommended, but lots of yellow, orange and red.

"Riverdale Next 3 Exits"  I see that everyday.

But yeah, Fall 2021 was great too.  We had that Indian Summer pattern and a warm October.

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro went crazy for Wednesday/Thursday. 3-5" now

Hey we need it.  Been getting skunked lately with storms.  Those amounts seem high though, but I guess we'll see.

Pretty surprised when I took a look at my 10 day.

Cool and rainy Wednesday, slight warm up for the weekend, and then a taste of early fall next week?  Low 50's showing up at night.  

2 hours ago, Dan76 said:

First night of crickets here.

Been hearing the crickets and Katydids for a bit now actually.  Love it.

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

The urban jungle used to average lows in the upper 60s in July. Up until the 1981-2010 averages it did. 

Even in rural areas, if your dewpoints are high you're not cooling off either. 

Everyone's warming up at night. The farmland went from 65 to 68 and the city went from 68 to 71, or something like that. So yea rural still averages in the 60s but not as low into the 60s. 

I get that, I'm not denying that it's warming.  But our summers that are more dewpoint driven are obviously going to to have higher lows as well, and the effect is more noticeable where a UHI is present.  Like last night I was in the 70s where some places in the city were literally still 90 or close.

47 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

The death of nights in the 50s and 60s is really tragic. It can still happen (as we’re about to see), but it used to routinely drop below 70 at night.

And it still does.  You have to of course get outside of the urban jungles for it to happen though.

Looks like 3.5" will do it, and that's on the low side.  Some nearby stations are over 4 inches, closer to 4.5" actually.

Had some bouts of incredibly torrential rain.  Literally went from needing to add water to the pool, to having it filled to the brim and needing to drain it.

5 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Our summers are basically miami tier now, except with the highs being about 4-5 degrees cooler on average. The lows are startlingly similar, mid 70s (yuck).

Our summers have always been hazy, hot and humid.  That's just typical Jersey and New York climate.  Yes I know that it has gotten worse, with dewpoints averaging higher than they used to, but it's not like we were ever arid like the high desert out west.

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I am ignorant of guitar care, except I had one low grade acoustic crack, (and additionally I took an ovation on a camping trip and the bridge broke off overnight when it got down near freezing).  An electric guitar is sensitive to humidity as well, as far as splitting or cracking?

I assume not as much as acoustic, but I still would be cautious even just for the sake of the finish being affected.

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

I guess that means I can keep my guitar out of the case, even with AC, humidity in the house is around 45%...

I just picked up a new Telecaster so it lives in the case regardless lol.  

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

The last weekend without any sort of precipitation IMBY was 3/7-3/9/25…could the first weekend in July finally end that streak?

Looks like it as of now.  This stretch is the classic summer weather we need.  Warm and sunny with some storm chances mixed in.  The fourth looks particularly incredible.

That's a pretty crazy stat of yours though, imagine most of March, and then all of April, May, and June, having precipitation on the weekend.

3 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Just the opposite.  I can't say the the Urban Heat Island effect was responsible for THI values over 100 for such a large area.

No you're missing the point.  The UHI is why it was over 90 degrees after midnight in the city areas, where I was like 77 or so.