JerseyWx

48 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

If long range is right time is gonna start slipping away on this summer. 72 at 1pm full sun in late June. Not heat next couple weeks puts us well into July. By August it obviously can be hot but some of the sting is taken out and thoughts turn towards school and fall. Heat has about a 6-7 week window right now and it don’t look great. 

We get heat into October these days.  I'm not worried at all.  We wouldn't say winter is starting to slip away a day before the solstice in December.

49 last night.  Not sure I remember a cooler night this far into June.  The house is 68 degrees.

Today should be better with the sun.  Hoping for July we can turn on the heat switch and get some heatwaves going.

Just over an inch here with the heavy rain early this morning.

Really tropical like torrential downpours here.  

Around the .6" mark since midnight for most stations by me.  See what comes of today before a really nice Sunday and Memorial Day.  So much better than last year.

Solid downpours here with some lightning as well.

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Felt like the humid decreased throughout the afternoon. Great day for catching up on yard work. 

I think it did, right now feels pretty good actually.

Man what a day it turned out to be.  Once the skies cleared the temp was able to rise quickly with the hot sun.  Currently 78. 

1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said:

Forecast in CPK for Wed-Sat has dropped since yesterday by several degrees. Went from upper 70s/near 80 to low 70s.
 

But even if it is in the low 70's, that's great for this time of year.  Way better than this terrible weekend.

Next week is looking pretty great for this time of year, just have to get past tomorrow through Sunday.

Despite this nice stretch of weather, and it being mid-April, I have yet to hear a single peeper.  I feel like it gets later every year.  Used to hear them start in March.

Had a brief but heavy downpour.  Sounded like some hail mixed in hitting against the house.

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I wouldn’t say the storm last night was a bust. The heavy rain was always favored to be north and west of the city on the models. The first storm was somewhat of a bust. It dried up on the northern edge. You could say that NYC/LI were shafted relatively for both storms. 

Yeah I have no idea what he is talking about.  The metro isn't just NYC.  Not a bust at all, in fact you could say it was a high bust for some of us if anything.

All nearby PWS locations are 3" or greater.  Impressive storm with a lot of moisture.  Had several rounds of very heavy downpours throughout the day, one being within the last hour.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see how long the mid month more spring-like pattern can last. The week 3 EPS and GEFS try to bring back some blocking around the 20th. While there will still be a SE Ridge, it could mean occasional back doors and stalled frontal zones between the warmer days. We’ll get some hints when the new extended EPS comes out tomorrow.

Probably going to be the classic back and forth pattern.  Get a tease of 70+ for a week and then be met with backdoors and rain the next.

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Monday's cold is ridiculous for this time of year. Barely above freezing with gusty winds under sunny skies too.

I'm sure the strong late March sun will help some but it's still going to feel cold. Also wouldn't be surprised to see lows below 20F in many suburbs. 

Yeah my forecast high is only the upper 20's.  With the wind it will easily feel like January.  The thing that really makes it worse was having that little stretch of 70+ readings not too long ago.  

46 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

How close are we to warmest March?

Have to be close at this point, right?

This is endless warmth

We've had way warmer March's in the past, and next week doesn't look crazy at all.  It's not really out of the ordinary to get some days that reach the 70's, and plus we've had a couple snow events (albeit minor for some) this month too.  I see some 20's for lows coming back at the end of my forecast.

4 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

Yup just a last kick in the balls . I was all excited I went to snow an hr  earlier than modeled  .  Radar looked tremendous . 2 hrs later I see it turned to garbage and I have 2 inches lol and done 

Measured 2.25" here.  This wind, cold, and blowing snow sure makes it feel like January or February.  At least we cracked 20" this year.

3" today brings me to 19" for the season.  Is 1 more inch possible to make it an even 20?

Overall I was surprised how cold this storm turned out.  Roads were bad once you got off 23, which led to some cars off to the side.  Cold night ahead.  

3 hours ago, rgwp96 said:

2.2 in Morris county . Should have been an advisory here imo . Roads were pretty bad around 1 pm when I was out 

3" on the dot now.

14 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Winter might be over 

I think that's pretty much it.  After this first week of March, how much time do we really have left to see a noteworthy event (at least 3-6")?  Higher terrain will definitely have more of a chance.

Despite only having about 3 inches more than the 19-20 winter IMBY, this one felt a lot better.  We definitely had more cold, and what snow we did have ended up sticking around because of it.

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I don’t get the whole mid March is too late, climo sucks ect. I got a massive 2 foot blizzard in mid March 2018, which was just a few years ago…. Yeah temps are often an issue, but with March storms you also often will have more moisture available so it’s kind of a double edged sword there. If the setup is good, some of the biggest storms happen in March.

Unless you're somewhere else, the metro got that big storm on March 7-8th, not mid-month.

I also don't think anyone is claiming it can't snow in mid-March.  We can get a 6+ inch storm in April for that matter. 

Point is, after the equinox in just over a month, the chances of accumulating snow are drastically reduced.  Between now and then is when we'd need to boost totals to average or better to make this a decent season.

Exactly 15 inches so far this season.  After the Thursday washout, we really only have about 4 weeks of good snow climo, as that brings us near the equinox.

Obviously it can snow afterwards, but even our better March's tend to shut off around then.

Exactly 2 inches here, not bad.  Brightening up a bit.

2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

 5 currently. This January has had more single digit low temps for my house than I can remember; lasting cold spell. Past winters I have dipped sub-zero, but quickly bounced back with the temps.

I was just thinking this last night.  Lot of single digit lows, and also a lot of highs sub 25, some of which failed to hit 20.