WestMichigan

Melting is kicking in to high gear today.  42 and dripping everywhere.

You can tell the areas that are doing well.  Quite a few deficits as you go north.  Crazy southern Great Lakes storm track dominating this winter.

Just now, WHEATCENT said:

the NAM is showing a mix when its in the mid 20s

possible?

Yes. Depends on the upper atmosphere layers

You average a lot more than me, but cut that deficit in half and that is where I will be.  I would be happy at this point to make it to 50% of average since it would be an amazing comeback in February/March to an overall bad season.

Kinda sad that the west side of Lake Michigan is seeing as much if not more LES than the east side this year.

lake keystone is to the west of Tulsa

15 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Heavy snow now

I thought it didn't snow in Indy.

My brother in Caldwell (SE Ohio) measured 9.5" this morning. Nice little surprise for them.  WTOD normally kills most snow over there but this time the cold and suppression helped bring a nice snow to that part of the state.

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yep, we got a 0.4" of sugar here on 0.03" liquid. Gave a glitter to the snowpack. Josh's snowfall chart:

wet snow or slushy snow (mild out)

dense snow (mild out, similar to wet snow but no melting of any kind on pavement)

sandy or sugary snow (cold but low ratio snow due to small flakes)

powder (my favorite if I had to pick. usually 12-14:1 ratio)

fluff (15-20:1 ratio snow)

air fluff (20+ : 1 ratio snow)

 

About 3.5” over here yesterday through last night. Nice to see winter showing up. 

15 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Total IMBY is for the synoptic event is right around 6".  I think about 3 fell in the WAA event, then there was a "warm sector lull" as the center of the low passed nearby, then the cold front swung through with an additional burst that added up another 3".  It was pretty wet and heavy shoveling.  Definitely more synaptic than lake effect.  Also a lot of accumulation on tree branches, signs, etc... despite 40 mph+ wind gusts last night.  Think it's frozen on.

Lake effect has underpeformed.  Just very light mood flakes.  Kinda positioned between bands all day.  Less than an inch so far.  Might pick up in intensity or at least fill in some this evening though.

LES has been alternating between light and moderate/heavy all day.  No way of measuring when my yard is either bare grass or a drift.  Looking forward to more this evening and overnight.

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Look at those lakes firing!

Enjoy.  Kind of jealous but enjoying what we are getting here.

22 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Kinda hard to see on the composite, but the TMKE terminal Doppler reveals that industry in WI is contributing to the heavier lake effect bands affecting areas near and NW of GRR this morning. 

Never heard of that.  Interesting to see the connection.

Just got upped to a Winter Storm Warning from an advisory here. Looking good for up to a foot with LES by Saturday.

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Man there was so much new material to read when I got home it was almost overwhelming lol.  Nice turnaround from earlier in the winter. 

Still waiting on the turnaround of this side of Lake Michigan. Even the UP is hurting for snow. Looks like this week and next might at least make a dent in the deficit.

45 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

Last year 2019-20 I never touched my snow blower, but did some minor shoveling a couple times. This winter, haven't touched my shovel yet! 

I can almost match you.  I just put my plow on Sunday.  I have shoveled 1 time all year.  Sad this is I probably average at least double your yearly snowfall.

4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I've got SEMI beat wrt "most pathetic winter". Y'all don't know what horrid is, trust me.

What is your YTD total?

8 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Lake effect is always weird in terms of measurement.  Very high winds can cut down on the fluff factor, as can a low DGZ causing more plate-dominant snow.  Think you'd need 25:1 ratio at least to get three feet out of any model output.  Lake effect is always better than 10:1, but you need temps in the mid 20s and wind under 15 mph to get the crazy 20:1 ratio dendrite-dominant feather-fluff.  Even then it doesn't really feel like as much as the official measurement because when it gets deeper than 6" it settles fast under it's own weight even within 6-12 hours of falling.

You just described LES fairly well.  The fluff factor is something most people outside the lakes don't really comprehend.  The nearly 80" I average in a normal year here is not like Iowa getting 80" in a year.  Look at WeatherBo.  He gets 200"+ but depth never gets anywhere near that.

43 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Definitely liking prospects for LES for most GL Belts. Along with some additional synoptic initially with the system through Friday I can see areas easily cashing in 2-3+" in the next 10 days.  Depending how cold it gets, I venture to say the following weekend will be the best snow conditions of the year for my area barring any synoptic miracles after the PV leaves. 2nd weekend of Feb was always my go to weekend for snowmobiling when I used to ride and should be a great weekend this year.

If only the GFS would verify.  Nearly 3' IMBY.  However the Euro says no way.  Give me less than 12".  Either way, definitely looking to double my YTD snowfall and maybe more.

1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said:

Might the NW burbs win this round? @Cary67 and I would appreciate it.

Early on you are correct, but any time after 84 hours or so any place down wind of the Great Lakes will wind up being the winner.  Looks like the lakes will finally produce snow in many of the normal LES regions.

To @A-L-E-K and all the others that immediately slapped the weenie tag.  Several days out I said pick the model lowest snow in the GRR area and that would be correct.  Well, it looks like that was the correct answer.

https://www.weather.gov/images/grr/wxstory/Tab3FileL.png?7218d30f4377734d0f4e99a5d1f9208c

Given the lack of any significant snow in my area on the models I can assure you the more southern route is definitely the correct solution. You just can’t make it snow more than a few inches in the vicinity of GRR this year. 

Euro has this dying as it heads east.  Really shears out after peaking in the IA/W IL area.

1 minute ago, josh_4184 said:

Yea I saw that recently Kalamazoo hasn't even had 12" of snow yet I was pretty shocked I am originally from Jackson and 131 always had at least 70-80" a year of snow. Tis week my area has definitely ate through some of the deficit, probably picked up about 14" so far the past two days and still hitting pretty good when I left for work this morning. May get another 2-4" throughout the day. 

I haven't seen 12" yet either.  Just broke double digits for the year earlier this week.  Here's hoping a warm lake and some friendly winds/850 temps during the month of February for both of us.

44 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Been that way up here until recently, about 45" under average for the year so far. 

I feel your pain, GRR is 34" below average.  Since I am closer to the lake, I am guessing I am a little below 40" below normal.  Anyway, congrats to finally seeing some snow up there!

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

6z GEFS



.

Goth the GEFS and EPS would be a little nicer if they could just shift a county or two north.  Overall looking good for those along the IN/MI border.