WestMichigan

@michsnowfreak the NAM says you better turn your magnet back on or this will be too far south for DTW to cash in on the big snows.

How many think the snow totals will come down as the event gets closer or will it stay with the ridiculously high numbers the models are showing?

I really hope GRR has to eat a little crow on this one.  NAM says GRR is maybe back in business after watching is drift south for the last few days.  Would like to see a few more models arrive at the same solution for my area, but someone somewhere is going to get a nice snowstorm out of this.

At least the 12z GFS is keeping us from saying congrats Kentucky. Maybe we can settle on a track with only minor variations sometime before 24 hours out. 

2 hours ago, London snowsquall said:

Agreed.    Seems there is occasional casual use of the terms blizzard or whiteout by some,  for situations that do not come close to qualifying.   A foot and a half of snow, wind gusts to 80mph and zero visibility for nine straight hours meant a blizzard of unique ferocity.   Never seen anything since that has even come close.  Eight people died here, including some who got lost in the storm and froze to death, and a family of 5 who died in their stranded vehicle waiting for rescue from the highway.  I wonder how many on this board experienced this storm.

I was in 1st grade living in SE Ohio.  I remember the relentless wind.  We started on the warm side so not as much snow as many but it was still wild.

The NAM 3KM says no so fast to those large totals.  I would hate to be a met out there right now.

21 minutes ago, fluoronium said:

Crazy things happening in east central IL this morning, with multiple locations already reporting the biggest snow of the season. Effingham's accumulation is roughly infinity times larger than their entire season to date snowfall.

Enjoy your taste of winter.

5 hours ago, Harry said:

Dropping in for a quick hi! Hope all has been well with everyone! 

 

 

Nice to see you back.

11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

NAM going east now too, watching and epic big dog collapse inside 100 hrs always sucks

 

Wow, the NAM is pretty much a swing and a miss for most of the NE.

If we are cherry picking our models, then I will take the 12Z Canadian please

Only made it down to 10 at my house this morning.  Lake Michigan doing its thing keeping us warmer.  Continual light snow over the last few days is finally adding up.  I didn't realize this but GRR is within 1.3" of their entire snowfall last year.  Compared to others in the subforum it is a virtual snowmageddon in West Michigan.

You know it is ban when the pahandle of Florida outperforms nearly all of our forum on the 12Z Euro.

You can tell this NWS forecaster has been in the Michigan area for a while.

On the other side of today`s forecast challenge, to the southeast of
Grand Haven and Big Rapids, we are going increasingly sunny through
the day. It can be an occupational hazard to go optimistic with sun
in January when we are socked in with clouds early in the morning,
but there are some reasonably large holes in the clouds opening up
on satellite, and some of the clouds are already thin enough to see
the moon through. Weak subsidence due to the high/ridging today
should continue to erode the cloud cover, while increasing south
winds will make an attempt to bring that drier and cloud-free air in
northern Indiana/Ohio our way.

21 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Still waiting on a 70 mph blizzard making 6' drifts across roads like in my younger days.

Aren't we all

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

What is your hometown? Didn't know you weren't from MI! Bare frozen ground here with some frozen snow piles. Thank goodness next week looks clipperier because my patience is getting thin. My total precip in Jan to date is just 0.27", with 2.8" snow.

Grew up in Caldwell, OH and moved here from the Columbus, OH area in 2010.

13 hours ago, frostfern said:

An actual synoptic snowfall would be nice at some point.

I can't agree with you more.  After watching my hometown in SE Ohio get a double digit storm yesterday I am ready for something like that here.

53 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

eps are real nightmare fuel hard to find a bright spot right now unless drought is your thing

WAD or CAD both are a precip nightmare.  Hoping things turn around soon or this summer is going to be ugly.

Have to like the 18Z NAM doughnut hole over Noble County. 

Michsnowfreak is trying hard to reel this one in.

Picked up a surprise 1-2" overnight as the LES bands came inland more than expected.  Closer to the lakeshore there was about 4" in Zeeland where I work.  Guessing even more in Holland and points south from there.

59 minutes ago, frostfern said:

I think GRR is going to pass 14" for the storm total.  The back edge is only a few miles to the north and creeping closer, but this current band is putting out a grand finale as it exits.  1-2" per hour rates.  Big dendrites.  Super high ratios.

Living on a near treeless hilltop I have absolutely no idea how much snow fell yesterday and today.  This morning I had bare ground and drifts over the top of my snow plow.  I am gong to have to go with the NWS average for my area but with less wind today I am sure the bare ground is getting covered up.  Sure looks like winter out there.

These pics are from last night.  I didn't get any pics this morning.

Wind and snow reducing visibility to under 1/4 mile at times.  Roads are a mess after the slightly above freezing temperatures yesterday.  Looks like it will be a fun ride home tonight.  Hopefully we can keep the winds from turning too far NW longer than the models are predicting and get in on the LES for a longer period of time.

11 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Ricky

 

Next item of note is the potential for a period of robust snow
showers/squalls on the Arctic front late tonight-early Wednesday.
including into Chicago. We wouldn`t be looking at much in the way
of accumulation, though snow could fall heavily for a short period
and coat paved surfaces, which would be problematic as temperatures
plummet through Wednesday morning behind the front. Finally, have
higher confidence in advisory criteria westerly winds (45+ mph
gusts) for much of if not the entire area through early Wednesday
afternoon. For the full forecast package issuance this afternoon,
will be considering a Winter Weather Advisory expansion, as well
as likely issuing a Wind Advisory for the remaining counties.

Castro

A little different story on this side of the lake.
 

Confidence is relatively high for major travel impacts over wrn
Lwr MI on Wednesday due to a combination snow showers (heavy at
times), blowing snow, winds gusting to 40-50 mph, and falling
temps. Frequent whiteouts and abruptly plummeting temps will lead
to treacherous/icy roadways and conditions in which we often see
numerous slide offs and sometimes even multi-car pile ups on the
major interstates/highways.

Total snow amounts are a bit more uncertain though since the high
winds on Wednesday will spread the snow out, sending multi-bands
well inland. This will probably limit amounts at the immediate
shoreline with displacement of higher totals farther inland toward
the US 131 corridor. Even where amounts are not too excessive
though, feel the combo of elements and occasional
whiteouts/squalls/near blizzard conditions warrants having a
warning out on Wednesday.

5.7” at GRR and probably closer to 5” at my place. Nice seeing it completely white outside for the first time this year. It was definitely a very dry fluffy snow which is very different than all the wet snow we have had so far this year. 

On 12/26/2021 at 10:54 PM, Mercurial said:

These were taken today.  Just another day in the life 

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