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StormyClearweather

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Everything posted by StormyClearweather

  1. StormyClearweather
    You're not wrong literally - that's the 24H max temp representation though, so it's looking back at the previous day (I assume). We technically go below at 0Z Saturday though, to your point.
  2. StormyClearweather
    To your point, just did a 24H max temp check, and ECMWF has us go below freezing at 0Z Sunday and not get above through the end of its run. In fact, many of us don't even get out of the 20s through that period.
  3. StormyClearweather
    My ignorance here, but when I look at the AIFS on TT, the 540 line jumps north of most of us. Does that not matter? Soundings on Piv also seem to show sleet/snow mix for many of us, FWIW. Not to be a Debbie Downer - just hoping I'm wrong and missing something.
  4. StormyClearweather
  5. StormyClearweather
    QPF continues to improve as well. All of us are in the 1.0-1.2" range sound of the MD.
  6. StormyClearweather
    In the "old days," the NAM was the best at CAD setups, especially the 3K when it gets into range, and models (especially globals) scoured it out too quickly. As Randy said, might be weenie coping, but I hope that's a trend we see continue as we get closer.
  7. StormyClearweather
    ✱FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY✱ The extrapolation comment made me think I'd try something funny, so I told Gemimi to create the next frame of the NAM.
  8. StormyClearweather
    Kuchera ratios are 17-18:1 for most of us during peak. I mean I'm not saying I buy it, but I'm not saying I don't either.
  9. StormyClearweather
    I mean it's noise, but it's a little better verbatim, though I wonder if this is more just it being a little faster than anything.
  10. StormyClearweather
    ICON looks a touch faster to me, so far.
  11. StormyClearweather
    It seems to me a slight trend toward holding back that energy on most of the guidance (GFS obviously being the worst and most extreme offender), a trend we obviously need to stop. What's the cause of that? Is it the stronger high to the north or something else?
  12. StormyClearweather
    Woof
  13. StormyClearweather
    Ukie will just fine. Mod to heavy snow by 9Z Sunday.
  14. StormyClearweather
    I would argue it trended slower and broader with the precip, due to enhanced strength and the coastal low scenario.
  15. StormyClearweather
    Oh hello
  16. StormyClearweather
    I was just wondering about this last night - thanks for going back and finding it. I seriously remember being at dinner on Valentines Day and checking the 18Zs (yes, really), and even though it looked fine, you could feel what was about to happen as ECMWF shifted south. So if we make it through today... maybe I can actually start feeling some confidence in this thing? P.S. My friend the MOGREPS, so this isn't just a banter post:
  17. StormyClearweather
    Wow, was the wind blowing the snow off roofs? That's wild (and presumably helpful when there's that much of it).
  18. StormyClearweather
    I have no idea if the MOGREPS (UKMET Ens) is any good, but since I like what it "snows," I'm posting it. 18z vs 12z
  19. StormyClearweather
    Not sure if anyone posted the EPS, but it's a hold or slightly improved. 12Z:
  20. StormyClearweather
    With more to come.
  21. StormyClearweather
    Chilly
  22. StormyClearweather
    FWIW, AI GFS has a 1"plus of precip over 48 hours with temps in the 20s. Presuambly, that'd be snow (?). Do think it tends to overdo QPF, but still...
  23. StormyClearweather
    This upcoming pattern is screaming suppression to me, which is by far the most annoying way to fail. Hope I'm wrong and just being my negative nelly self.
  24. StormyClearweather
  25. StormyClearweather
    AFDs getting a little too real.
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