NeonPeon

There's some revisionist history going on. The gfs like the euro had this storm wrong for days on end, over a hundred miles north of where it is now. I don't know why you would celebrate any model in this situation. If it's just because you are giddy that it's snowing, then you do you.

I hear a lot of talk of a positive bust and that the models that signalled a very rapid sudden shift shit the bed. I mean, yes, they shit the bed, for a lack of any consistency, inside of 24 hours massive changes. Thereafter they were a little wrong, but not very, if not looking at snow maps. But the idea that that whole reestimation of the storm was wrong because the best fronto was a few miles further north? The entire precip shield is still wayyy south, as reflected? Am I missing something? For my part, slop, and ragged radar so far. Surprised to see snow on the grass in places, not surprised to see better banding in all the usual places. I cant figure out whether the bands over Long Island will make it here consistently or not. Hope so later today.

The "one" hahahaha.

When the discussion begins... Well, ....

I just pruned a birch with a pole saw in a hoodie. The airmass is bad. The one shot for the coast was big rates and cooling, but if it's a weaker system, even the places that get grazed wouldn't accumulate much on the coast. I've not had much hope for this system locally, but now there's even a question of why it will suck.

If they ever do that for my kids, they are going to be sick and we are going sledding. Snow days are what made every weenie.

It's odd to see that big a shift at this time frame after days of fairly consistent modeling or gradual shifts.

That dark grey goes up into the bay for sure. There's no way that the southern part of aquidneck Island is At 5 inches plus. I think the official number for Newport is at 6.6 on the season, but Newport proper has definitely not seen close to that. That's oddly the number at the airport, which is in Middletown, and every half mile you go north makes a difference, incredibly. My very unofficial total is half that. It's definitely nit picky but if my winter is going to shit the bed, I at least want it to make a stain.

I appreciate the idea that was raised earlier that there haven't been massive changes in this storm despite the drama It's been well forecast and there's a lot of consensus. And I get, that yeah, it's a type of imby noise that amplifies very minor modeled differences. But that's kind of the nature of the beast. The more accuracy over time, the more demand for accuracy. People won't abide the sort of probabilistic judgements that are necessary at the margins and want what they consider to be an actionable forecast. Every detailed forecast of one of these storms is focused on the margins, the nw edge and the southern thermals. The rest is often obvious, and the differences aren't meaningful. And, very frequently, riding that southern line between nothing much and a warning event, is the largest population center in the United states.

I've seen enough. This is going to be a nice storm for many people, but I'm not one of them. Even the depiction in the gps which as discussed is a little improved, I don't really buy for this little microclimate in the Narragansett bay. That flattish changeover line when the low is west of us, is always a nose into the bay. Need a few more southern ticks to get back to something good here.

People on the coast aren't "worried." They have functioning pattern recognition. There's a reason nws almost always have a wait and see approach with liminal areas with respect to watches/warnings. It's the same reason why my cross country skis are encrusted with dust.

If you are on the coast it's not necessarily going to be fine if you like snow.

There are about 1/4 of members showing the typical p-type issues for extreme SE/coastal folks.

Anyone who hasn't learned their lesson anywhere near the coast has themselves to blame at this point. We are nowhere near close enough to have much confidence.

Is this really getting close? It's still not within a window of much confidence for this sort of detail, surely.

Well, I've got about 2.5 inches on the season. I'm also going skating on the pond tomorrow. Isn't possible in Newport that frequently. The glass isn't close to even being half full, but at least there's some ice in there, I guess was the point.

In lieu of checking the models short to medium term, I need only check the level of disharmony on this forum. You're real time savers.

Tickled Newport for a while. Covered everything up. I'll dig myself out later when the trees stop falling down.

Of course it isn't. Snow washed away after flips is awful. Swfe is a dirty word in these dirty southern parts. Tomorrow has trended from almost nothing to completely nothing.

The great plains and northeast have been the places most warmed in winter, and it is untested waters as to whether that is a pattern that continues, but in general it makes some sense that the colder places warm the most. Let's say it doesn't though, even those places have warmed, and we'll end up in the same place regardless, further down the line, if it's more pattern-driven. I think there's obviously scope for infrequent blockbuster storms, and even more than normal snow in the interior, due to climate change, in the right set ups, but that is just going to lead to a monumental view of history, wherein big events tend to colour perspectives. The coast is different though. If you're already in a spot that is kind of liminal for snow, and inexorably average temperatures increase, you're just going to see less snow, and more subtly, you'll have a lot less time feeling like winter. I know the winter of the last few years, I grew up in it when I was young. It feels like a winter in the north of england. It is cold but not really, it is very wet and rainy. You're more likely to flood. It doesn't snow usually, but it can. You keep a sled in your basement that you don't use, because one day you might get to use it. Your parents remember using it more. The ponds don't freeze.

There has been a lot of consistency on this non-event event. Something to check the confirmation bias. I guess it's not a very complicated system though. I want to have enough snow to go sledding with the kids first thing saturday morning. We are on the line of that being possible... you need a decent amount with fluff. Small accumulations and big stakes for the kids. There are more sleds in my basement than we have had inches of snow this season.

It isn't analogous in set up or in ceiling, but these tight-gradient latitude dealies fighting dry air always remind me of the 2015 anafrontal event. No advisory given, a couple inches forecast, into 13" here. At the end of it it was snowing hard and the sky was bifurcated, half blue bird sky, half cats paws falling. As uneventful as that will have been for virtually everyone else, it was my favorite event as an adult ever, just because it showed how weather can confound even far more advanced forecasting. It also made me pay more attention to dozens of other events subsequently that ultimately reverted to the mean and came to absolutely nothing! This could well be that. Now, that event could have been just offshore as they often are. One difference also is there wasn't much complicated going on there, it was just "where does this stream of moisture go," here there's a suggestion of development in points east (mostly on the fishes) and there is suppression favoring points sw in connecticut. I'm watching it - what else am I going to do? This is a window, there won't be many others at the coast.

1.5 inches and hearing the pings. Up to 2 for the season. It's beautiful out.

It's a nice feeling going to bed to flakes and there still being snow in the morning. It'll wash away, of course, but a couple inches will quadruple what I've had so far. I'll take anything.

Or indeed, anything, on the coast.