dwagner88
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Everything posted by dwagner88
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I have a little insider info on this. Server problem. Undergoing emergency maintenance. Terrible timing.
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If it makes you feel any better, I doubt it would have mattered. I stayed cloudy all day and still went from 29 to 36 this morning. We are getting light sleet as the column saturates.
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Well I am currently sitting at 29 degrees. We may get a little light sleet before WAAing into a lovely 34 degree rain all day.
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I'm a lot less excited about this storm than the last one. I actually think we had better chances of accumulation from the last storm. I strongly suspect this trends to 100% rain for almost all of SE TN outside the mountains. Flash freezing after the rain may be an issue though.
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No go for most of Hamilton county and Chattanooga. Cut offs were Signal to the West and White Oak Mountain to the East. Better luck next time.
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100% snow here. Big flakes. 100% melting on contact since it is still 34 degrees.
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Just stuck my head outside to get a feel for things. It’s 35 with wintry mix (bit of everything), and the spring peeper frogs that emerged during our insanely warm December are croaking for mates. Poor things.
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I have some flakes mixing in East Brainerd. Temp is dropping very quickly. 37 now.
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A band has set up almost perfectly aligned with Lookout Mountain in NE Alabama and far NW GA. That area will be rocking right now. Heavy rates.
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Bit colder here but currently the same. I think patience is key. Watch HTX radar CC loop. Things are happening overhead. Looks like Athens and Sweetwater are very close to mixing/changing.
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I know we have a couple of users in McMinn and Monroe counties. I’d be interested in any reports if you have a minute to look out the window. CC is very uniform over those areas, indicating the change may have happened or be happening now.
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The changes in CC make me think things are potentially about to start mixing here. Wind is whipping around outside, down to 38 here.
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The CC changeover line has now entered Hamilton county, but on top of Signal mountain. Let’s see how long it takes to get down the valley. I’m finally in the 30’s here, but a long way to go still.
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CC transition line remains stalled out along a line from Scottsboro, AL to Dunlap. Temperatures even on the plateau east of there are above freezing, but barely. The Sequatchie valley is acting as a very effective snow shield ATM.
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What road is this? State highway or county?
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The CC line is actually stalling out over the plateau. It is struggling to make progress east after really racing over the last hour to get to that point. That’s surprising.
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If dual-pol is correct Manchester is getting absolutely clobbered right now. 45-50 dbz all snow.
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Crazy reflectivity in NE Alabama. Looks to be rain, but it’s very close to the changeover line. Dual Pol isn’t indicating much sleet in north Alabama. Seems to be all snow or all rain.
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Very heavy rain. The temperature has now dropped 33 degrees in just over 24 hours and 21 degrees in 8 hours.
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The changeover line has reached the Franklin/Marion county line per CC. I’m expecting it to rocket across the plateau then stall for a while at the valley. All of the above should happen in the next 1.5-2 hours.
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This is what to watch for later tonight and it is certainly possible if a trowal comes into play. Flakes that size will accumulate super quick. It happened for us in Feb 2020.
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I’m remembering an event from January 2013 similar to this. We had a long duration warm rain event followed by a quick closed off low. If I recall correctly, everyone in the valley from West Knox southwards blanked. Knoxville north and east got several inches of heavy wet snow. The warm air bubble was in a very similar spot. Short term models are showing it getting almost up to Knox county now. I’m still hopeful that we get some favorable dynamics for a quick inch or two in the outlying areas and hilltops.
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Front hasn’t moved through here yet. Temp is up to 62. I think that would be a record if it actually snows later. Incredibly warm.
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I wouldn’t focus too much on small areas being shown with BL issues. The models don’t have enough resolution to accurately predict accumulations during quick hitting heavy events like this. I still believe this will be a quick 1-3 on elevated surfaces even in the lower elevations, with a big thumping for everyone over 1500’ or so.
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I can't tell if the issue show on the HRRR in the valley is just temperatures (in which case I believe rates will trump it), or a loss of forcing from the deformation zone. If it's the latter, someone is getting screwed.
