snowman19

I guess DT isn’t Team Euro anymore….

There is and has been a very strong atmospheric La Niña background for months even without the ENSO region’s SSTs indicating so. That’s not going anywhere. As I said before, I’m very confident we have a La Niña. -ENSO winter a certainty. And this event was NEVER going to be east-based, not one model has shown that since spring and they still are not

Looks like another sizable region 3.4 drop with an MJO related trade wind burst is coming if the models are correct. Mentioned it the other day, but cold-neutral/borderline La Niña at the very least this winter is guaranteed and I am fairly confident there actually will be a La Niña. Also, blatantly obvious now that this is not going to be an east-based event. Basin wide? Hybrid? But definitely not east-based. Either way, a -ENSO winter coming Other things that are a looking like a very bet going into winter: strong -PDO (pretty much a certainty), -PMM, -IOD, ++AMO, +QBO (possibly strong), MJO 4-6, low arctic sea ice, AGW, *possible* volcanic effects on the stratosphere from the April eruptions? (likely minor), high solar flux/high geomag

Another big EWB is on the way. Should see another big drop in region 3.4 the next couple of weeks

Aug-Sept 2011 was an epic deluge largely thanks to Irene. Soil moisture was well over 200% of average in September

Rising. Turning positive

I don’t like 12-13. QBO and solar don’t fit. Even 16-17, PDO/PMM don’t fit. The high solar flux and geomag is going to play a bigger role in this winter than some people are giving it credit for. Ignore this at your own risk (ghost of 2001):

Very slow to develop. Cold-neutral (at the very least) is a guarantee, I still think there’s an official La Niña. Also, still no sign of an east-based event developing; i.e. 2017. I think twitter can put the east-based fantasies to bed now IMO

I never said anyone was, just responding to Chuck’s point about the QBO rise from June to July and December, nothing more. I suspect we see a strong +QBO in the next several months given that July is already up to over +12 and it just turned positive in June. Whether it’s a big factor in the grand scheme of things, I don’t know

Was looking at that last week. We saw the same thing in July of 2011, 2007, 2001, 1995, 1992, 1991 and 1980. Not sure about 1980 but I think the others did have some AO disruption. 95 obviously did

I didn’t look at the new updated QBO data, I know it just went positive in June, I think you mean July’s number is already up to +12.53, that’s indicative that we are going to have a strong +QBO come December and beyond, so you’re right, that would not be a good sign for a cold December

Another thing we’ve been seeing a lot of is the SE ridge/WAR verifying much stronger as we get closer in time thanks to the ++AMO. It has been a common theme for several years now and looks to continue

Looking at the ensembles for the next couple of weeks, as of now, your find is pretty uncanny. Aug appears that it will be a break month from the heat. If this continues to follow the script, we see the break this month, then Sept-Nov go way above average, Dec is “neutral”, then Jan-Mar go way above average again….

Was looking at it more today, if there is a Niña, I’m starting to think ONI stays weak, which wouldn’t make 07-08 (I know Ray likes that one) and 16-17 bad. The big problem with 16-17 is the PDO and PMM don’t match (both were positive back then), the +QBO does match however as does the -IOD, +AMO and the MJO 4-6 Niña forcing. The best solar match is still 01-02, very good solar match actually and if it stays cold-neutral would definitely be a good ENSO match and would also match all the other background states we have now

I think this current record spike in the upper tropospheric temps is the result of a few things….Hunga Tonga, last year’s very strong El Niño and the high solar flux/high UV that’s occurring right now @so_whats_happening

@bluewave Question, when you looked into the south-based -NAO blocks we’ve been having due to the ++AMO/Atlantic marine heatwave cycle, did you find that the ever increasing strength of the SE ridge/WAR were what was/is causing them to link up? Or were the blocks themselves centered further south?

This is troubling, this is the same effect we saw back in 2001 from that high solar onslaught. The high incoming UV from this major solar flux/record number of sunspots is heating the upper atmosphere. This mid-latitude upper atmospheric heating from UV is what caused the SPV to shrink and strengthen and in turn lead to ++AO back in ‘01. Then we saw the raging westerly zonal flow take over for months

True. And as far as the AMO going off the charts positive the last few years, it has only served to magnify and feedback into the SE ridge/WAR and result in south-based -NAO blocks when one actually does show up. @bluewave has been all over it

-PDO on roids, as relentless as the MJO 4-6 forcing

I mean the AMO was positive back in 01-02 and that was our last dry winter. Yes, I know that it wasn’t as ridiculously positive as it is now, but still positive nonetheless

A “neutral” December based on what averages though? The new AGW ones? Or the old ones? And I went back and looked at it for myself, Chuck wasn’t kidding, it’s extremely ugly for Nov-Mar, every month (minus December) isn’t just above average, they are way above average

@GaWx Mentioned that possibility (dry winter) awhile back. The last legit dry winter for the east coast was 22 years ago

I think at this point our ONI options are either cold-neutral or weak Niña. The RONI may get to low-end moderate/high-end weak