snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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March is the month that is pretty much a toss up during La Niñas, some stay torchy, some go back to cold. January (more so mid-late January) and especially February are usually the torch months. November and December are normally cold
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If the Niña actually does go strong in December, we can stick a fork in winter
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A colder November and December, followed by a Jan, Feb, Mar torch would fit in perfectly with the classic “front end loaded” La Niña winter. That plot isn’t really showing a west-based, Greenland blocked -NAO, it’s showing a more east-based -NAO, as you said
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Yea, in that Euro run, December would definitely be the “better” month. You’re correct that we’d avoid an all out torch with the -NAO, which we’d have given the Pacific look (-PNA/RNA, +EPO). People didn’t like December because of the Pacific side it shows, the EPO and PNA floodgates are going to be open. Then it obviously goes all to hell for Jan and Feb
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The atmosphere has been screwy since the 15-16 super El Niño event, it obviously altered the global circulation in a big way. Don’t look at the new Euro seasonal for winter, ugly is putting it nicely, it made the new CANSIPS look good, but wow at this Euro run.....
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I don’t even bother looking at the SAI anymore. It’s proven to be completely useless snake oil. Abysmal failure several winters in a row
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This record low Arctic sea ice is disturbing. I think it’s definitely a contributing factor to the ++AO winters we’ve been seeing the last few years. It seems to be causing a positive feedback loop
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We are about to start seeing a fully coupled, ocean-atmosphere Niña start to take shape in the next few weeks. Should be interesting to see how that affects the PDO:
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The models are showing it becoming a modoki as we go into winter. Most Ninas start east and move west. Right now, it’s definitely a basin-wide event, all 4 ENSO regions are cold. ENSO region 4 has not been this cold (-0.6C) in well over a decade. The models show region 4 remaining cold throughout the winter. https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png
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It’s supposed to peak at moderate in December
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The CFS is such a train wreck, always the very last one to get a clue. Pretty sad when American guidance is some of the worst out there
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For anyone following; the QBO number for September just updated, it’s up to +7.95
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Honestly can’t remember how long it’s been since ENSO region 4 was this cold. The models showing a moderate peak in December are looking more and more believable. I had doubts about the Niña getting beyond weak, those doubts are pretty much gone:
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@psuhoffman I think another wildcard for winter that HM keeps mentioning is the wildfires’ effects on the stratosphere....
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It will be be interesting to see what happens with the North Pacific high come November and December, is it flat or poleward? Seems to be conflicting info about the QBO/Niña relationship like you said. Looks like there is pretty decent consensus now for a moderate peak sometime in December. As Ray showed in his preliminary outlook, it appears this event may be evolving into a “Modoki” La Niña now
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Don’t know if you guys saw it but winter composites for low solar/La Niña/+QBO were posted in the New England forum:
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Even up in the NYC metro area, a La Niña/+NAO is a very, very bad combo for snow and cold lovers. New England is a different story
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No, they have just begun to affect the stratosphere. The effects will continue through winter. This is going to have long lasting effects for many months even after they end
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All these wildfires punching smoke up into the stratosphere are not what you want to see. It is increasing the chances of seeing another +AO winter. HM posted 2 articles last week explaining in detail why this is
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I read several studies which concluded that tropical volcanic eruptions that punch into the stratosphere result in +AO the first winter after an eruption, then cause -AO the following winter. This study on wildfire impacts on the stratosphere is real interesting. These wildfires are much more extensive than 2017 so you would expect a bigger impact; it would seemingly support +AO this winter
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Wasn’t the GloSea the very first model to see the extreme +NAO/+AO last fall?
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The models are getting stronger with the Niña too, looks like a moderate peak come December. The Euro is now showing a more “Modoki” look to the Niña as we get into winter as SnowHibbo pointed out.
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DT painted himself into the same corner JB did with his Niña/QBO argument several years ago. If he stands by his argument and the research he posted back then, he can’t go for a cold and snowy winter in the east with a +QBO or risk contradicting himself. Should be interesting to see what his forecast is, unless he finds some way around it. He has gone cold and snowy the last few winters in a row
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I don’t think anyone would be shocked if November turns cold. It’s been a reoccurring theme for several years now, September and October end up warmer and drier than normal, then November flips colder and wetter than normal. Deja Vu....
