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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    ^This. We had pretty much 2 epic winters in a row (13-14, 14-15) with Pacific cooperation (-EPO) and zero AO and NAO cooperation. Why? Because everything is moving west to east on our side of the hemisphere. When you have garbage coming in from the PAC side, you are screwed even with a good AO/NAO under a latitude of about central New England, all it’s doing is trapping the garbage coming off the Pacific....
  2. snowman19
    The trend toward a Modoki La Niña event continues....eastern ENSO regions (1+2, 3) continue to warm while the western regions (3.4, 4) continue to cool. The CFS is still insisting that there is going to be a secondary strong peak in region 3.4 come January.....
  3. snowman19
    I didn’t say it was people in here. Please don’t get defensive, take a look at the twitter hype, hence why I said “people” and the -NAO depicted is a meh east-based one. I still seriously any sustained west-based Greenland blocked -NAO, I won’t believe it until it happens, not mirages on long range modeling
  4. snowman19
    Yep, people are hyping a -NAO/-AO, they do you no good when you have a +EPO pumping PAC puke into Canada, all the -NAO does is capture the puke under the block....useless
  5. snowman19
    Agree with you 100%. He keeps using the Euro to push this story line, which was horrible with this Niña. It was the last to the party and kept insisting on barely a weak event. The CFS, which did a very good job is actually showing a secondary peak in 3.4 come January. Over the last month or so, the eastern ENSO regions have actually been warming and the western regions have been cooling.
  6. snowman19
    Which is concerning IMO (that the eastern 1.2 and 3 ENSO regions are warming), it’s moving west and it’s becoming more of a Modoki, regions 3.4 and 4 centered event as we go into winter, which is what a few models suggested would happen
  7. snowman19
    Maybe, however, the CFS is showing a secondary strong peak in January, we’ll see, but it has been one of the most accurate models with this Niña event. The Euro was insisting on only a weak Niña and it was dead wrong, it was one of the last to fold
  8. snowman19
    Good call by you and Bluewave last week of the eventual correction to much warmer for this weekend. Looks like 50’s and rain now
  9. snowman19
    The CFS is showing nothing of the sort and it has done a much better job with the Niña event since the summer, it sniffed this event out very well, it has a January peak of solidly strong:
  10. snowman19
    Enjoy what? Not understanding your post
  11. snowman19
    Region 4 hasn’t been this cold in over 16 years
  12. snowman19
    I saw that this morning. It’s ugly, real ugly, it’s showing an 11-12 type winter scenario....hard to believe that we would have back to back winters this bad, they are usually separated by a bunch of years in between
  13. snowman19
    If this month turns into a dud, we are in very big trouble for the rest of winter. Bad November’s and December’s in moderate to strong La Ninas are the kiss of death for winter in our area
  14. snowman19
    It looks like a ridiculously mild pattern is going to set up shop by the 15th. Consensus on all 3 major ensembles (EPS, GEPS, GEFS) now, along with the CFS
  15. snowman19
    Possibly....you definitely don’t want December to be a dud month in a La Niña winter. It would be a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter, historically speaking, especially given the much warmer than normal November
  16. snowman19
    The 10-11 La Niña was extremely “east-based” at the beginning of winter, November and December. If you recall, as it evolved to become more “west-based” around mid-January, the high latitude blocking began to slowly breakdown, then it completely fell apart at the end of January and that was all she wrote for that winter, the blocking never came back again, right through April.....
  17. snowman19
    There is now consensus among the ensembles that the TPV moves into AK (+EPO) come next weekend. It’s probably lights out for awhile, that’s a stable pattern, the vortex is not going to be in a big rush to move out
  18. snowman19
    The Niña associated Aleutian ridge is showing up on all ensemble guidance now, all the new runs of EPS, GEPS, GEFS have it
  19. snowman19
    How many times now over the last 3 winters have the ensembles shown a massive -EPO/-NAO/-AO pattern in the long range only for it to never verify and just completely disappear?
  20. snowman19
    Yea, it’s definitely concerning. When the TPV moves into AK it typically has good staying power, it’s normally not in and out, transient
  21. snowman19
    It’s always very cold and snowy in Wennieland....
  22. snowman19
    No not really
  23. snowman19
    That and the trough is positively tilted big time
  24. snowman19
    The GEFS and GEPS have completely lost all of the high latitude blocking (-EPO, -NAO, -AO) in the long range, I strongly suspect the EPS will be next. This is shades of last winter when the EPS would insist on high latitude blocking mirages in the long range, run after run, only for them to completely disappear as you move forward in time
  25. snowman19
    Eric Fisher actually just tweeted about this, as you can see, the 12z EPS says its own operational solution for this weekend is garbage:
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