snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Yea pretty much only Snow88 and NYCWeatherNow thought this weekend was going to be a snowstorm
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Using 10:1 ratio snowmaps for Wednesday is ludicrous. The ratios are going to be lower than that, Bluewave explained in detail why before, to say they won’t be is wishcasting. Plus those maps count sleet as snow
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This is far from a “crushing” NAM run: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120812&fh=84
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Exactly! And you aren’t going to have 10:1 ratios, they are going to be lower than that
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Once again, stop using the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, grossly, horribly inaccurate. Remember the last storm when people kept posting that the city was getting 6 inches of snow and it got one inch? That was thanks to using the 10:1 ratio maps. Here is the accurate one, compare: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120806&fh=90
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Over the last 15 years, I wonder how many anafronts have actually produced?
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Central Park saw a whopping 1.5 inches of snow out of it
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https://mobile.twitter.com/WXRISKCOM/status/1202484903415291904
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You beat me to it, so far the HRRR seems to be the most accurate. It did very well with yesterday’s non event on the front end
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Here’s the more accurate depiction of what the 0Z NAM shows; 12 K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36 3K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36
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You aren’t going to have 10:1 ratios tomorrow, they are so inaccurate, it’s not even funny
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Those 0Z 10:1 12K and 3K NAM snowmaps are very, very badly overdone, not even close, like not even in the ball park. Go to the positive snow depth change maps and compare. The difference is astounding
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New NAM total for storm: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019113012&fh=84
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There is a lot of sleet counted as snow in that
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It will depend on how far north the secondary gets going. The models minus only the NAM are moving it further north and west since last night
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There is going to be a lull after the initial WAA mixed precip to rain Sunday afternoon
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November 2018 had a much colder and drier airmass in place to start, there was also extremely strong lifting and dynamics in the DGZ
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I would be shocked if there isn’t a north movement with this storm on the models between now and Saturday’s runs. These secondary coastal transfers always tend to do that as you get close
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People are using the grossly inaccurate 10:1 ratio “snow” maps that count sleet as snow. They aren’t even close to reality, it happened all last winter
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It got warmer all the way into the Hudson Valley
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Seemed like that to me too, that’s why I had asked about these things moving north as you get closer in time
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Aren’t the models notorious for redeveloping and occluding too soon/far south in these situations, then they adjust north significantly as you get closer? I remember a few years ago, I forget which year and month it was, but just that scenario happened, it showed a DC, Philly, NYC hit and it ended up crushing New England instead
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Surface is warm too on the Euro. That 12Z Euro snowmap is bogus, in fact Coastalwx from the New England forum totally dismissed it and for good reason, the mid-levels are a torch and the UKMET actually was cooler at 0Z, the new 12Z run has no snow at all until you get into extreme Northwestern New Jersey
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Yea, that snowmap is way, way off. The mid-levels are completely torched on the Euro, all the way into southern New England
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Big problems with this. The 50/50 low is much weaker and further north than was modeled a few days ago, garbage airmass in place, no cold surface high locked in to the north, strong primary parent low cutting way west, secondary coastal low takes too long to form and bad track
