snowman19

Yep. That was the problem last winter. Everytime a +PNA ridge formed, the raging fast PAC jet slammed into it and knocked it right down. When the PAC side sucks, in the absence of a very strong Atlantic/west-based -NAO “Greenland block” (and you’d also want a strong arctic -AO/-NAM along with it as well), the PAC rules the day, since our weather moves west to east. The PAC will always overrule the Atlantic and arctic in the absence of a very strong block/blocks

He’s trying to say the Euro is trending towards the op GFS at day 10 if you could believe it. And he wonders why he’s called a weenie....

Because the GFS is so accurate at Day 10. It flip flops like pancakes at IHOP. By far the most horrible model out there

Imagine if the GFS was actually a good model? Lol Snow88 will believe the op GFS though, “It showed it for many runs” lol

How was your white rain this morning? Lol

The antecedent airmass isn’t all that very cold, we’re not talking unmodified arctic air. It all depends on a strong 50/50 low staying in place, acting as a block to lock the confluence and cold high in place. Otherwise the high just moves east, return flow, goodbye cold and it just cuts into the lakes as a rainstorm, a la this coming weekend

The 1-2 inch snowmaps which count sleet as snow only showing that much are a dead giveaway. You are not getting 10:1 ratios, more like 8:1 or most likely lower, when you factor that in, plus the boundary layer temps which are going to suck, you are getting less than an inch. You were well in the 50’s all day today, even far NW of the city, wet roads, wet ground, going to be a lot of disappointments tomorrow...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121018&fh=16 New Hi Res GFS is barely anything either

That’s the only way to get Tues/Wed to work next week in this pattern, the 50/50 low needs to be strong and hold. If not, next week turns into a repeat of this upcoming weekend

The last 5 runs of the op Euro and EPS have gotten drier and drier

Yea pretty much only Snow88 and NYCWeatherNow thought this weekend was going to be a snowstorm

Using 10:1 ratio snowmaps for Wednesday is ludicrous. The ratios are going to be lower than that, Bluewave explained in detail why before, to say they won’t be is wishcasting. Plus those maps count sleet as snow

This is far from a “crushing” NAM run: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120812&fh=84

Exactly! And you aren’t going to have 10:1 ratios, they are going to be lower than that

Once again, stop using the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, grossly, horribly inaccurate. Remember the last storm when people kept posting that the city was getting 6 inches of snow and it got one inch? That was thanks to using the 10:1 ratio maps. Here is the accurate one, compare: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120806&fh=90

Over the last 15 years, I wonder how many anafronts have actually produced?

Central Park saw a whopping 1.5 inches of snow out of it

https://mobile.twitter.com/WXRISKCOM/status/1202484903415291904

Surface is warm too on the Euro. That 12Z Euro snowmap is bogus, in fact Coastalwx from the New England forum totally dismissed it and for good reason, the mid-levels are a torch and the UKMET actually was cooler at 0Z, the new 12Z run has no snow at all until you get into extreme Northwestern New Jersey

Yea, that snowmap is way, way off. The mid-levels are completely torched on the Euro, all the way into southern New England

Big problems with this. The 50/50 low is much weaker and further north than was modeled a few days ago, garbage airmass in place, no cold surface high locked in to the north, strong primary parent low cutting way west, secondary coastal low takes too long to form and bad track

The UKMET got warmer than last night’s run. It doesn’t have even so much as a trace of snow until you get into extreme NW NJ. It’s posted in the New England forum if you want to take a look

When you have folks who aren’t even mets saying what the weather is “definitely” going to do over the next 4 weeks, as if they are commanding it to do so, especially with respect to something as anomalous as snowfall, is extremely ill advised. Statements like I’ve seen today on twitter, i.e.: “it’s impossible that the I-95 corridor doesn’t see above normal snowfall this month with the upcoming pattern”, is just not smart. No one has the weather or mother nature totally figured out with absolute certainty and if they do, they probably can also walk on water and turn water into wine....

I love twitter right now and the “experts” proclaiming that it’s “impossible” “no way, not going to happen” that the I-95 corridor is not going to have seen well above average snowfall come December 31st. “Above average snowfall definitely coming, buckle up.” Famous last words. Talk about setting yourself up for a gigantic, epic bust making statements like that. Nothing in weather is “impossible” or “no way, not happening” or “definitely happening” weeks in advance. You don’t speak in absolutes in weather, doing so ends up making you look foolish when it doesn’t work out. No one has the weather all figured out. I have a feeling some folks may be eating humble pie 4 weeks from now

No not really. I’m a weather fan period. All weather; warm, cold, snow, rain, wind, dry. I’m not just a cold and snow fan only, unlike some others ;-)