snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Exactly. You need the Aleutian ridge to go as poleward as possible (-WPO) to help seed Canada with cross-polar/arctic air. A flat Aleutian ridge won’t do jack squat. That said, you still have the +EPO problem which would limit how cold it can actually get. All models agree on continued +EPO and you are going to have RNA/-PNA. Any +PNA pop isn’t going to last with the current background states in the Pacific (Niña/-PDO/-PMM)
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And no cross-polar flow connection so no real arctic cold. That’s why our departures aren’t cold right through early December
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November 18th and I still have not had to turn my heat on once. Can’t ever remember that happening
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Here comes the final La Niña boost and SST drop that Dr. Ventrice and others were forecasting last weekend:
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Great post. Yea the RMM plots are chaos right now but we are seeing a phase 4-6 progression through early December. Looks like we go RNA/-PNA by early December which isn’t a surprise given the Niña/PDO/PMM background states
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What does that have anything to do with what phase the MJO propagates to?
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Those plots are inaccurate. The MJO is going phases 4-6 (Niña). We aren’t going to see the waves getting into phases 7, 8 and 1 because of the La Niña. When the waves try to propagate into those areas they will get sheared to shreads and ripped apart by the strong easterlies and cold waters from the Niña
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If the MJO progresses as expected, the pattern will turn mild and we loose the blocking as we get into early December. The composites for MJO 4, 5, 6 along with La Niña and -AAM look like this in December:
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Dr. Paul Roundy, the premier expert on the MJO (developed the Roundy plots) agrees with your concerns. He is forecasting the AO/NAO blocking to only be temporary as the MJO forcing becomes hostile once we get into early December:
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Here is the risk you warned about….
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You don’t read very well. This is post thanksgiving week i’m referring to and the MJO is going to be a factor. Stop with the JB propaganda
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We agree. The +EPO is going to limit any cold. And the WPO is only weakly negative. Also extremely unlikely the +PNA has any staying power given the -PDO, La Niña, -PMM background states.? Once we get into early December, the MJO will support a warming trend. The SPV is becoming very strong and if it couples with the TPV, we have a problem This is not a good sign:
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The metric by which all ENSO events are measured by are the actual SSTs, which are about to drop in the next few weeks and in a big way. It’s peaking, yes and it’s done in the subsurface. However, declaring it “dead” as JB did is asinine. Dead Nina’s don’t continue to have SST drops. When the surface starts warming, then it’s dead
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The Niña strengthening. It’s happening despite what JB said
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Yep. This one is coming. We are about to see explosive strengthening and it most likely goes into strong territory for a time. The tropical conditions all support it as does the record -PDO
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Lol!!!! We all know how you are…you quote and listen to Joe Bastardi, enough said. The same Joe Bastardi who said this La Niña was weakening and dead a week ago when it’s about to explode in strength come early December. He’s either A - a totally incompetent quack who hasn’t a clue wtf he’s talking about or B - completely delusional/mental. Take your pick
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The SPV is not weak:
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No one is forcing anything you fool
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This La Niña is about to strengthen big time @donsutherland1 @bluewave:
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@stadiumwave @MJO812 It’s doing anything but dying, in fact, it’s about to undergo a huge period of strengthening by early December :
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This is an extremely well coupled La Niña, last winter never coupled. I don’t know why anyone would even try to argue that it’s not, plus you have a very severely negative PDO and -PMM to go along with it
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Besides the +EPO issue, we now have consensus on a strong SPV for the foreseeable future and the atmospheric forcing for a displacement event is completely absent. Also, given the coupled La Niña and severely negative PDO and negative PMM, I seriously doubt the +PNA being shown for Thanksgiving week will have any staying power. All this may prove to be very problematic for those predicting a cold December….
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This has been a given for months, just for perspective, 10-11 was westerly QBO and 11-12 was easterly QBO. Easterly QBO doesn’t automatically mean super cold and snowy winter, in fact, with the research HM did, he showed that easterly QBO along with La Niña results in a flat Aleutian ridge, the westerly QBO La Niña combo was found to result in a poleward Aleutian ridge
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Looks like the GFS is off its rocker again….can’t really say I’m surprised. The upgrade has done nothing apparently. It’s proving the be the most flip-flopping, erratic model out there as evidenced by this….dreadful:
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The one constant, consistent theme on all models is the solid +EPO. You aren’t sustaining cold even with a -WPO in that situation
