snowman19

If he’s correct and a AK/GOA vortex is a persistent, semi-permanent feature this winter, we are in a lot of trouble. An AK/GOA vortex is a mega torch pattern for the CONUS and Canada

Yea, I would definitely not be comfortable forecasting a cold and or snowy November in the east right now, after weakening initially early in November, the SPV looks to completely recover and strengthen by month’s end. Also, you have a coupled, strengthening La Niña, strong -PDO, -PMM and the SSTs along and off the east coast are blazing right now, they are going to help feedback into the WAR/SE ridge. The PAC has wanted to stay -PNA/+EPO/+SOI since the beginning of September, it’s been a very persistent, stagnant pattern there. Also, unlike last year’s east-based event, this Niña is definitely more central-based:

There are actually signs now that after an initial weakening of the SPV in early November, that it recovers and becomes strong and the stratosphere goes cold by the end of the month:

Not necessarily, there have been warmer than normal October and November in the past that lead to cold/snowy winters. The problem is when all 3 months (September, October, November) are warmer than normal, that it almost always leads to a bad outcome

Maybe it changes for December, but I don’t see anything to support a large scale pattern change in the PAC by November. The PAC, as is, definitely does not support any sustained cold, it’s been the same stagnant pattern there since the beginning of September

I’m starting to very seriously doubt a cold November, in fact I think it’s another warmer than normal month. We have a strengthening, coupled La Niña in place and I don’t see any reason for the -PNA/+EPO/-PDO/-PMM/+SOI to let up. Even if a -NAO/-AO was to develop with a PAC like that, all it would do is trap the junk maritime Pacific air flooding into Canada. We would need a large scale full pattern change in the PAC and I just don’t see it happening by next month, it’s a stagnant pattern there

If November is also a warmer than normal month, that should seal it as a 1st or 2nd warmest met fall ever. September was also way above normal

We will have to see if it actually downwells into the lower stratosphere and troposphere, last week the models weren’t showing that happening. Also, HM just pointed this fact out:

Very interesting. Last winter, it was so far south it was linking up with the WAR

Yep, assuming that’s correct, it’s showing the same weird -NAO/-AO structure that we had in Dec and Jan last winter

Definitely the strongest -PDO/-PMM since 2011

How did the January’s of those winters go? Just looking at this strong signal for October, it’s suggestive of ++EPO with deep cold over Alaska come January:

Yes. And there in lies the problem….the upper level strato warming has to downwell into the troposphere or it’s useless. I’m not saying that’s what is going to happen but if it doesn’t, the flip to a cold November idea is going to have serious problems

Agree with this. Still very early obviously but I’m not so sure that the flip to a cold November narrative being pushed by some is going to work out this time around, there are some glaring hints right now that the major pattern change to cold in November idea may be in some trouble

The problem is none of the models are showing the warming/disruption downwelling into the lower stratosphere or into the troposphere:

@bluewave@donsutherland1 None of the models are showing the warming/disruption downwelling into the lower stratosphere or into the troposphere:

Also to add, this La Niña is very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere). Another reason why I expect any +PNA to be short-lived. Last year’s Niña was not coupled which explained the extended +PNA runs last winter

Given the strong -PDO/La Niña/-PMM, I seriously doubt any +PNA spike will have any staying power. It would very likely be a transient change

Not threatened at all. JB is a clown, this is the same guy who was using 02-03, 09-10, 57-58 as “analogs” for the 15-16 super El Niño with region 3.4 at +3.1C and calling for epic cold and snow

JB…..ROTFLMFAOO!!!! Last winter he was hyping that we would be in a Modoki El Niño right now lol

Didn’t he predict that we were supposed to be in a Modoki El Niño right now last winter?

A member in the NYC forum posted something about this a few years ago, forget who researched it, but anyway, they found that a warmer than normal Sept and Oct were nothing to worry about and many of them lead to a cold and snowy winter. It was when all 3 months (Sept, Oct, Nov) were warmer than normal that it became a huge problem. Nearly all of them lead to warmer than normal winter with below average snowfall in NYC, it was the kiss of death. Don’t know if the same holds true up there

Good point about the extreme warmth off New Foundland possibly causing that weird NAO/AO blocking last winter. As far as how this all plays out this winter is anyone’s guess. Big differences for this coming winter as you pointed out, are the 2nd year, coupled Niña and strong -PDO/-PMM. And yea, that equatorial warmth in the Atlantic is staggering

@bluewave@donsutherland1 Weathafella over at the New England forum pointed this out, the big -NAO/-AO Niña winters (95-96, 10-11) both had very pronounced tripoles in October. Warm around Greenland/Davis straight, big cold pool off New Foundland and warm again south of that. Textbook tripole. This year we have a dipole look with very warm SSTs off of New Foundland. Whether this means anything 2 months from now I don’t know but interesting none of the less. Here is his post:

Yes, it will all come down to NAO/AO this winter IMO. If there is good blocking in those domains, then it will be very likely we end up with above normal snowfall, even with a hostile PAC, temps may not be colder than normal in that hostile PAC scenario but they don’t really have to be below normal to get snow once you get solidly into winter. My guess is a hostile PAC/ENSO this winter. We shall see