Stovepipe

I wonder if we can finagle a clipper after this thing.

18z GFS

Whew, glad the GFS is hanging on.  Without the Euro in my pocket I get nervous lol.

9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

So far a taller western ridge on the 12z Euro:

 

I wish it was a little bit taller, I wish it was a baller, I wish it had a girl that looked good I would call her.

Sorry, that goes through my head every time a taller western ridge is mentioned.  Carry on.

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And the 12z Euro is rolling...

Hoping not

Another look at those last two GFS runs, for documentation purposes.

Memphis:

Nashville:

Crossville:

Knoxville:

Tri Cities:

1 minute ago, weathertree4u2 said:

That is a 10:1 ratio right, this will be a higher ratio wont it? 

Kuchera so better than 10:1.  The cobb is higher too so it's a pretty good bet that ratios are gonna be awesome.

12z GFS would shut the state down for a few days with the modeled temps.

The ICON runs out of gas but still gets half the state some action.  If I'm in west TN, I'm feeling pretty good, even with the worst case scenarios.

I was wondering when TROWAL would make an appearance!

18 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

So are we just gun shy on starting a thread? Western parts of the forum are just a few days out.


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Skin that smoke wagon!  Go for it!

MRX update:

Quote

Confidence is increasing for potential accumulating snow during
the Monday to Tuesday timeframe. Exact values are uncertain, but
this could be an almost area-wide snowfall.

Quote

Monday through Wednesday

With respect to our area, cold air from the Arctic high will
gradually expand from the northwest with the main question being
about precipitation potential during this timeframe. There is still
uncertainty about how the exact pattern will transpire during this
time. Most sources are suggesting an Arctic front to be setting up
across the area with divergence aloft early next week. With the
depth of cold air expanding from the northwest, it is likely that
most precipitation would fall during this time would be frozen. The
GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all show precipitation in the area during this
time with the ECMWF being more towards Tuesday and as more of a
Miller A development. The ensembles continue to focus potential
snowfall totals further north in the area. Based on QPF outputs of
0.25 inches to near 0.50 inches, resulting accumulations given
enough cold air would be notable across even the lower elevations.
All sources are then suggesting extremely cold air to set in Tuesday
to Wednesday. This is illustrated by 850mb in all sources to reach
-15 Celsius or lower, values approaching record daily values for
this part of the country. It is also increasingly possible that
resulting wind chills may be sufficient for products in the higher
elevations.

3 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

The wind is absolutely ripping it at my house. Just had a 42mph gust. That’s extreme for a NTSWG for my area.


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It's amazing how these ridges affect everything.  My max gust in Murphy Hills (can't be more than a mile or two from you I imagine) during that was 22mph.  Sandwiched between Black Oak and Beaver ridges, this little valley often shields me from wind depending on the setup.  Temps also vary as much as 8 degrees from other areas like TYS at times.  I've wondered if my station was out of calibration but it seems to match others close to here.  Microclimates are fun.

The buffkit meteograms show a bump at 18z from 12z for both TYS and TRI, 11:1 and Cobb.  Not by much, but notable.

What excites me most at this point are the modeled temps.  For once we may not be dealing with marginals.

28 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Definitely not me!!!   I was texted that from a source who is also not affiliated with channel 4!  Lol. 

Assuming that’s WSMV they’ve really deviated from the old days of Bill Hall and the Snow Bird report.  

2 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

It looks like the mountain wave event is underway. Just noticed a 60mph gust on a weather station in southern Greene Co.  I'm actually keeping an eye on areas west of Camp Creek too. On rare occasions, that area can get wind gusts that rival what is experienced at Camp Creek Elementary for a particular event. Unfortunately, the data in that area aren't as reliable. That includes areas like Cedar Creek and St. James. The roof has been blown off the gym at South Greene HS a few times, so these windstorms aren't isolated to the Camp Creek community. This event might actually favor areas just to the west of Camp Creek...but that's just speculation on my part.

Regarding your question, I still believe the effects of the mountain waves will extend away from the foothills in a few areas, and it could cause tree and power issues. It's difficult to pinpoint where. It's common to have 70mph wind gusts in one area while winds remain relatively light just a few miles away.

The LLJ is extremely strong tonight and other parameters are favorable, so it's hard to imagine there won't be some very high gusts recorded.  

 

Right on time pal, I was just about to put up the signal!

On 8/22/2023 at 6:20 PM, nrgjeff said:

Good points about ENSO enhancing corresponding phases of the MJO. That's kind of how the pieces come together. Until the secondary pattern crashes the party. Like this 600 dm hell ridge!

I find the least value in forecasting weeks 4-6. We've done statistical studies that show zero commercial value over climo, sometimes even negative value. I don't even look past week 3 on the weekly products. 

The 2nd month out to seasonal can add a little commercial value. Month 2 if one can get the MJO or other meaningful teleconnection it can help. ENSO is better at less granular multi-month time frames. Even such very general forecasts can add commercial value if the sign is right. Unfortunately that's maybe 1/3 to 1/2 of seasons. The other half we live with it. Nobody should make detailed plans based on a seasonal forecast anyway.

Still that's actually greater commercial value than weeks 4-6 forecasting at zero. 

You are an absolute treasure to this forum, thank you for sharing your insight.  

Maybe it's the microclimate, maybe my weather station is off, but I measured a 109 heat index Tuesday between the ridges here in Halls.  Regardless, it's a nasty stretch here.  I can't really complain though, because overall it's not been a bad summer at all.  At this point, I just want storms.  I can handle heat when there's a threat of afternoon boomers.  Anyway, looking forward to fall temps.  Hope John gets the sweep as well!

5 hours ago, 1234snow said:

You can click on the timestamp on the bottom right and it brings up a calendar where you go chose the date and time. Pretty cool.

Slick, thank you all for schooling me.  

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

Do you know how to look in the past on RadarScope?


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I did not know that was possible!

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@nrgjeff

Here are the reflectivity and storm relative velocities from about 1250 PM through around 230:

Damn dude, that's amazing that you saved those!  I had one crappy zoomed out screenshot that I saved from Radarscope that wasn't even post worthy.  You did a good thing there!   

35 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Looks like a tornado will be confirmed in west Knoxville between Karns and Harden Valley. There was significant damage in the area and the radar had solid CC drop. The 60-80mph winds were legit. I was off Western Ave and got the first time in my life i actually took shelter when part of a large tree hit my work van. Lol


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Whew, glad you're ok.  I'm thankful to have avoided any downed trees or significant hail in Halls.  But man, there were some VERY close lightning strikes, confirmed with RadarScope.  One had to have hit a tree a few yards away.  Instant sonic boom, felt the heat off it.