Stovepipe

GFS is rolling over north Mississippi.

3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Agree. I’m in the pretty colors.


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Me too, I'm clinging to 18z Flash's kid until further updates.

3 minutes ago, bearman said:

Is this projection or does he know us all too well or is it both.?

Yes

4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Gong to be a bunch of nervous people in here waiting for the rest of 0z to come in.  Middle and west TN, especially north of 40 looking good with the 0z NAM

This

Road trip to Standing Stone State Park in the upper Cumberland, whose with me?

Still more to go in east TN but not much probably, 00z NAM:

2 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

Historically, MRX considers Hamilton county to mean Chattanooga. They won't issue advisories or warnings if the event only affects Lookout and Signal mountains for example. I don't see them doing anything differently this time.

It'll be interesting to watch the Friday storm unfold for that area.

NAM is rolling

4 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Toots Weather Forum was a good one for east TN snow homerism.  Toot could hug a snowy model till the end.  Toot was apparently a little abrasive in various weather communities and died tragically young.  

We should make a banter thread about historical weather forums.  There's a lot that could be said lol.  RIP Toot.

3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Many many years ago so much it makes me feel really old, before I knew AmericanWX had forums those old DGEX outputs would set the old SouthEast forum on AccuWeather on fire! I swear sometimes it was a combination zoo & MMA sprinkled with a little weather.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

 

Ha, those were my first weather forums, we probably interacted at some point!  I met John there around 2008-2009 I think.

Just now, ShawnEastTN said:

Someone got the DGEX for old time sake? I really miss it so much. I guarantee it would show the storm of the century right about now.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Not the DGEX but I've been fiddling with Earl Barker's page today trying to render some of his classic graphics.  Sadly no luck on my end yet.  If anybody can conjure an Earl NAMing please post it.

https://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I didn’t mean to spook anyone. I was just looking at the precip type fields and comparing to last run. I didn’t actually look at the qpf output. Sorry lol. 

The gif work is very much appreciated my man.  

1 minute ago, zippity said:

Winter Storm watch issued for parts of Mississippi. It's not Tennessee Valley, but imo still pertinent to size and scope of the developing system.

North Mississippi has been getting smoked almost every model run.  I really hope they cash in, they are overdue.

8 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

New model run per my offspring. Basically a composite of what we saw yesterday. 

 

This is awesome, I hope we get more updates!

4 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

I thought the same, but I’m glad to see them put it out ahead of time to give people plenty of advanced notice.  

It's the responsible thing to do.  Gives a nice spread of 3 to 8, acknowledging uncertainty but bracing for the worst.  Waiting until the last minute in order to be the most correct defeats the purpose of the statement.

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The NAM was likely heading this way still, it was just slow rolling and the snow had only arrived in the East as the run ended. 

The SREF mean looks fine too for where it's at.  Seems to be in agreement with RGEM and ICON.

I love that this is looking to be a longish duration event.  Not just a quick 3 or 4 hour hit.  My exuberance is growing! 

33 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Here you go. Hard to see but leaves and small debris are ripping past. This is my new record for wind! Previous was 74mph during hurricane Irene in Eastern, NC. Station recorded 83 while I was recording.

 

https://youtu.be/2VDa4dIA5K8?si=qpz6t4Y2hsRtIXtM

Hail yeah, thanks for the updates. I’m driving around in the mess and can’t check models.


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1 minute ago, BNAwx said:

You know it’s been a good few hours of modeling when you have to go back 3 pages of posts to catch up where you left off the night before.  
 

Good times!

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Canadian for future look backs at how it was soooo right or the crazy uncle again.

 

 

Hot dang that GFS is amazing for the eastern valley.  Last two runs have between 0.9 and 1.1 inches of QPF falling below freezing with cobb snow totals at 8 inches by Tuesday night and temps crashing to zero by Wednesday morning.  It's beautiful.

I like what I'm seeing this morning.  But, for documentation purposes we should note the 0z Euro non-event.

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think that's a Title IX violation. 

I just completed my annual Title IX training yesterday so I'm getting a kick!