Stovepipe

Getting pasted in west Knox.

2 minutes ago, RawCrabMeat said:

Excited for this band just to the west

Buckle up little Timmy, you're about to see some s***.

Snowing as heavy as it has all season here.  Flakes aren't half dollars, more like dimes with a few nickels, but coming down heavily.  Parking lots getting slushy.  32 degrees.

Helluva band moving into the valley now.  I should be in it in 10 minutes or so.  About a half inch so far.

The ground is getting white in west Knox.  I hope it doesn't dry up soon.  Coming down at a decent rate but flakes are smaller.  32.4 degrees.

Temp dropped from 34 to 33 quickly.  Ground starting to whiten up a little a mile south of Cedar Bluff.

Really enjoying the beautiful snow in west Knox.  Moderate to heavy, with flakes that oscillate between half dollars and dimes.  I thought it was about to go back to rain but it has held on for 45 minutes or so.  Temp is 34 degrees and I see no evidence of stickage yet.  I wasn't expecting to see any of this until this evening at the earliest.  Nice little surprise. 

7 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

With no indicators on the left and right of these charts, very hard to determine what is being presented 

Click on them in Twitter and the full image loads.

59 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I'm just going to guess here, but looks like Chatty gets TROWAL'd on the 12z GFS. 

I remember when west TN got TROWAL'd a few years ago.

5 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said:

Terrible run for East TN on the Euro. This is going to be strike three on the year for a good snow. Bust 

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Night and day difference between the GFS and CMC on how they handle the 850 and warm nose...Cross section of KTYS

Awesome plot, thanks for posting that.

2 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

He seems a bit pompous to me...I could see how maybe there would be some friction with him in the workplace. I'm probably completely wrong but just how I feel from what little I've watched him (and maybe in part due to his nickname and always saying "I told you so" after coming within 3-5 degrees of the high temperature he forecasted that day)

I've not watched a local news broadcast in probably 3 years so I'm out of touch.  But it sounds like the weather reporting is a circus these days, not unlike pro wrestling.  I miss the olden days of Hinkin reporting rain while it's snowing out.

3 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

David Aldrich has a second low going through Memphis as well (as of 8:30pm ET) and then cutting up around Knoxville (similar to WATE but further east). Mentioned that this will cause mostly rain in areas, and then whatever model he used spits out the most meager of amounts that I've seen from any models today for Tennessee. Hopefully he will be wrong. Honestly his map looks closer to what the models were showing two days ago with how far north he has the heavy snow.

Captain Accurate is his nickname?  Ok lol.

35 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

We'll take it out or a spin.  Here are the last two runs including 0z.

I may have a new favorite model to watch, thanks!  Those solutions look rather realistic.

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

I'm dead.  

46 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think that 540 line is just more of a guideline, than a hard and fast rule. That being said, climatologically it will be hard to deal with the downsloping for the eastern valley and even me on the plateau off of frozen head with a ENE and NE wind. 

MRX had good points in their PM disco:

"In [my] experience many times Miller B type events, and the resultant snowfall totals are not handled by the long range models especially well due to low topography resolution. One of the biggest things they seem to incorrectly forecast is the strong downsloping that occurs with these systems. The downsloping then results in higher surface/low level temperatures and really eats away at snowfall totals with a slightly warmer atmosphere. Combine this with many of the deterministic models predicting the heaviest snowfall to occur during the daytime hours... and the only slightly below freezing temperatures overnight... and temperatures possibly reaching into the 40`s in the Valley during the day on Saturday/Sunday... It all leads to heavy skepticism in some of the high snowfall totals that some of the deterministic and ensemble amounts being depicted."

In the main thread, Jeff also noted that even NWS offices in West Virginia were worried about a warm nose. 

For my part, I hate anything that even resembles a Miller B. That low is trying to find a thermal gradient to use as a transfer pathway and the lower elevations of East TN create a warm pocket for some part of that low to go.

In my limited experience, Miller Bs have been STJ systems. I know that isn't always part of the KU definition, but for us in the east TN valley, ANYTHING that sends a piece of low pressure up the valley as the energy transfers to the coast, might as well be the same. I can understand people further north using the A/B hybrid distinction, but it really doesn't matter if you live from Chattanooga to Morristown, IMO. This is not a STJ system though. 

The angle of attack for the energy is unusual for us and there have been soooo many shifts, some dramatic, in NWP, over the past few days. That normally suggests ensembles are more useful in unusual situations like this, but we also have to consider that ensembles are compounded iterative differences of initialization conditions, while we're lookin for frinkin' reality. Ensembles suggest, but don't precisely foretell. To me, the OPs have led ensembles for this system, and that also suggests that this is an unusual set up. We've seen a few model cycles where the OP ripped the ensembles out of their happy median and said basically "Nope, we going this way." The smoothed mean can't account for realtime conditions and any small bird fart perturbation chaotically shifts the NWP outcome. I guess all I can say is La Nina. Fast flow in a chaotic medium = chaotic results. 

 

One thing I found of interest on the 18z Euro were the Dewpoints:

 

That's some cold dry air trying to filter over the mts and making some headway at TRI. PSU in the MA forum was commenting on some analogues and says that this antecedent airmass is the coldest among those analogues. Now, they are closer to the HP in the mid Atlantic, so that may not apply here, but it is something to think about. 

I think this storm has one or two more tricks up its sleeve before it's finished, but I am also prepared for my heaping helping of a warm nose, served piping hot, if that happens. 

 

This was a great post, thank you for your contributions to this community.  

56 minutes ago, Chattywarmnose said:

I’m waiting on @Stovepipe to confirm this storm before I get too excited 

51 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

It's banter, but that was one heck of an overall OP run

WEENIE RUN!

WEENIE RUN!

I'm stoked about this next band.  It would be nice to add to this quarter inch or so where I'm at in south knox.

6 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

Here's a few more pictures from Crossville today that I took at the Campground nearby. It's snowing again here now from the band in Middle TN so maybe we can squeeze out another inch or two. Sorry for so many pics just playing with my camera:

 

Awesome pictures, thanks for sharing!  

2 minutes ago, Jeff H said:

Winter Wonderland here 

I've enjoyed driving through your area on the way to Snowshoe many times.  I bet it's beautiful right now, enjoy!

It's ripping at the moment in south knox 2 miles from downtown!

3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

That little line is dropping some serious snow on me and it ain’t moving fast. Also snow in Nashville is headed SE now. Don’t know if it will make it but it’s a nice burst also.


.

7 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

Anybody in Farragut with a report?

We've got a slight dusting a mile south of Cedar Bluff.  I can't imagine Farragut has much more.

It's 31.5 with a tiny flaked drizzle, or as I like to call it, flizzle.  I got in my car and Looks Like Rain by the Grateful Dead was playing on sat radio.  Perfect!