Stovepipe

12z RGEM:

12z HRW FV3

12z HRW WRF-ARW:

12z HRW WRF-NSLL:

The 12z NAM is a paste job for almost the entire state.  Still struggling to get that 540 line all the way to the eastern border.  Much improved from yesterday though.

Good morning everyone!  Feeling pretty dang good about our chances here in the central valley.  The SREF has improved greatly for TYS.  It still suggests a changeover to freezing rain for a few hours but much better than yesterday.  The mean has nearly .6 QPF.

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

 

Nothing against Aldrich or his forecast, but I have a hard time taking anybody serious that calls themselves Captain Accurate.

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Same streak on 0z HRRR..south side is down near MS border...hence plays out with a more southern solution 

 

Very much appreciated, thank you!

0z NAM:

The 540 thickness line just never really punches past the plateau.

The NAM is still managing to rain in central/southern east TN.  I just have a hard time believing that could be accurate based on everything else we've seen.

4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Where that streak enters out of AR...whether KY or MS border tells the rest of the run

Would you mind posting a picture of this?  I'd like to start monitoring it.  Thank you for the insight!

The SREF plumes ticked a little better too for TYS.  Still a mess, but moving in the right direction.

0z NAM looking significantly better for east TN, whew.

9 minutes ago, bearman said:

No they don’t and that has me a little disconcerted I am right on the line in West Knox and that gives me maybe 2 in.

Jeff doesn't seem terribly concerned about the NAM so that eases my mind a bit.  It would be amazing to have both the Euro and NAM in a good place.

The SREF plumes are a mess for TYS.  P-types all over the place.  Hoping the NAM suite gets itself sorted out soon.

I built my chickens a redneck fortress out of straw bales.  Hopefully nobody loses a comb in this cold!

Looks like the Mississippi Mauler is back on the table!

From an east Tennessean perspective it doesn't feel good not having the NAM on board, but it is what it is.

Just now, John1122 said:

The GEFS mean was similar to the OP but lesser amounts towards Chattanooga and more towards the Kentucky border north of Nashville. One member just absolutely crushed the Eastern Valley near the mountains and it skewed the mean a little and there's a 5 inch bullseye east of Knoxville. 

The Dandridge Dollop?

Just now, John1122 said:

It's a few weeks down the road!

RIP Campbell County

Just now, John1122 said:

Canadian is going well for Chattanooga too. 

Remind me, when is the Super Bowl again?

Pretty sexy for our Chatt friends if true.  

00z GFS at seemingly the end of round one.